I am not doing the 3.6 FORM deal

[Alsie35]

*SNIP*

Now, thankfully I am at a point I don't have to do that anymore. At 70, my days for changing careers are done. But I feel badly for guys say in their early 60's and are appraisers. This will be a hard pill to swallow. Either learn the new technology, or find another occupation.

Well, don't feel badly for me. By the time the 1004 Regime is sunseted out, I will be less than 2 years short of the "optimal Social Security" age per my financial advisor (ie wife). And we can 'bridge that gap' AND enjoy life - without having to work for $$$ again.

Someday, when I have washed this entire enterprise out of my system, I might come back on here, wax wistful, and tell you some more details of how we built the "Better Appraising Mousetrap System"

Sadly, the "New Order of The UAD 3.6 Abomination" consists of parceling out the appraising job to the "300 Flying Appraising Monkeys". This model will NEVER allow any single independent appraiser (if they even exist in 10 years) to achieve the same kind of success and security again.

'The Abomination' is thoroughly unnecessary - but bureaucracy, of whatever kind, ALWAYS defaults to demanding MORE centralization and MORE "top-down control". That will eventually be the end of the America as we found her - an America whose success was built through Mom-and-Pop family enterprises and Small Businesses.

Sure, it would have been nice to make a few extra grand a month well into retirement and leave more to the kids, but being able to do ALL the other really important things in life that we've been putting off will be even BETTER.

 

[Alsie35]

The same is true of any governmental/taxpayer backing of loans. That should go away, too.

You're not wrong. America was made up of far more virtuous and hard-working citizens before the Government started playing its socialist shell games under FDR.

 

[TerryRohrer]

You're not wrong. America was made up of far more virtuous and hard-working citizens before the Government started playing its socialist shell games under FDR.

Of all the sh*t that has come down the pike in the past century, that is the greatest loss. Unfortunately, I can't foresee a correction without a revolution. While I expect it to have no significant impact on me, personally, I wouldn't want to be of the younger generations. I just hope I'm perched somewhere where I can see how it plays out.

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

I don't know that this is a good analogy, man. I mean - even if you do believe appraisals are REALLY important, they're still not life and death.


This should, IMO, be the bellwether. Regardless of the technology used, if Brewer were in charge, the GSE's would procure appraisal services that are in line with what hard money lenders would require. Maybe that's 'old school appraisals' and maybe that's AVM's. Either way - I think hard money guidelines should be the standard.


1. Just because an appraisal isn't performed doesn't mean no one knows what the house is worth. In fact - pull your place up on Zillow and let me know how far off you think Zillow is.
2. Default rates are correlated to higher LTV's for a fact. You missed my point, though. I said that, from a risk perspective, there is no need for an appraisal IF the terms of the loan are satisfied (i.e. if there is no default).

I think we're pretty much in agreement - we're just looking at opposite sides of the same coin.

FTR: I pulled up my place on Zillow and Redfin. I believe my place to be ~ $400k. Zillow has it at $402k and Redfin has it at $385k. And I live in a non-disclosure state.

How do you know before you give out a loan if it will not default?

Sure Zillow is not the worst in some places. It can be monumentally wrong sometimes.

I live in a townhouse. These are what zillow is probably best at, uniform housing, lots of data, not a ton of variation in updates unless its a high end community. And sometimes it is still is way off. Look at how well Zillow did during COVID. Being wrong just a small percentage can be a big deal if its big enough.

One I remember checking it on zillow, the comps looked fine, not the best, but they ranged from $500,000 - $625,000. Estimated value $720,000...and the $625,000 sale was overall superior. I checked it because the homeowner printed out that zillow when they did their refi and handed it to me.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Our new insect overloads aren't all that bad, ran across this AI-song:

Song: “REVAA Went Down to Georgia”

Listen and make your own on Suno.

suno.com

 

[shrubberyvaluation]

BS - it's ALWAYS been a social welfare program. If the GSE's and FHA weren't subsidizing the industry with my (and your) money, there would be no 30 year amortizations, there would be no LTVs over 80%, there would be no loans made to folks with credit scores under 700 (and so on).

True, they are just adding on to it.

 

[Bobby Bucks]

Seems to me they're asking appraisers to do just that, Sandra - namely to 'do the analysis'. They're asking other folks to be the eyes and inspectors, right?

I can just hear the AMC solution, they will require the appraiser and the PDC to meet at the property at the same time and the appraiser will need to ask the PDC what time and day they're going since the PDCs are now the professionals.

 

[alebrewer]

And sometimes it is still is way off. Look at how well Zillow did during COVID.

Dude - that was a lifetime ago WRT valuation technology. I remember back in the day doing an analysis of AVM's and their accuracy. We compared AVM values to some 5,000 home sales across the US - the accuracy rate then (circa 2010 +/-) was around 80%. I'd hazard now that most of them are better than 95%. The key for the folks trying to figure out how to lean on AVM's even more in their risk management roles is trying to figure out how they can determine which homes the AVM's are gonna be wrong on. And to your point - it's the albatross homes.

To use your home as an example, why would you need an appraisal if you're in a homogeneous market? (and, of course, you have a good idea of property condition - which you get with the PDC)

You never did say whether you think Zillow (or Redfin) is accurate for your place?

 

[Airstream]

So I worked through a bit more on the app. Some things are kind of confusing, such as there is no rear photo of the subject.

Also if there is an outbuilding (like a barn) they require the volume in cubic feet. So how does that work if it has a hay loft? What are you going to do, climb up in the loft and take the measurements? Really?

 

[Zoe]

Hello ya'll, I'm a hillbilly. Am I on the right Thread?

Thread title........"I'm not doing the 3.6 FORM deal"

I didn't know I made deal with anybody. What's the deal?

Am I dependent employee or independent contractor?

I don't want to use the word "slave". "Slave" has negative connotations.