I have seen the future

[Doug Wegener]

Recent Trends and Usage (2025 Data)
The use of appraisal-free options varies significantly based on the type of loan being processed:

• Purchase Loans: In June 2025, Fannie Mae’s purchase waiver rate was 11.5%. However, for the specific 80–90% loan-to-value (LTV) bracket recently opened for waivers, usage rapidly increased to about 15%.
• Refinance Loans: Historically, these have the highest waiver rates. As of January 2025, 37% of no-cash-out refinances and 20% of cash-out refinances used waivers.
• Total GSE Combined: The combined waiver rate for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was reported at 17% in April 2025.
  Appraisal Institute +2
• 
  
• Here is what I am seeing in recent appraisal requests: 1) 50 acre property with 50,000 feet of marketable timber and a producing orchard 2) 2 upscale homes on a lot where there are no comps 3) Log home on acreage 4) Home on 18 acres with shop /studio and 80000 gallon cement pond with old irrigation rights,5) Custom river frontage home with no comps similarily located or recent, etc. etc. In other words, all assignments were complex and time consuming. All AMC orders. No AMC is willing to pay an adequate fee to do these assignments. In times past the only reason these assignments made sense is because you made up for it with easier non-complex assignments that were not so time consuming. Now that the non-complex assignments are going the way of the dinosaur with appraisal waivers, it makes no sense to do the complex assignments for an inadequate fee. I do believe the AMC's are now cutting their own throats. The business model does not work anymore.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Most complex assignments should be done on an hourly basis.

 

[Doug Wegener]

Should be but that doesn't not fit the AMC business model

 

[alebrewer]

I'd venture that at least 40-50% of residential GSE/FHA/VA mortgages don't need appraisals. The quantity and quality of data available to collateral underwriters is sufficient (now) to mitigate collateral loss risk for most homes in conforming neighborhoods. And, while condition can be a significant impact on value, the PDR option, I think, gives users adequate control over that unknown as well. And then, if you factor in ANY credit side metrics into the equation - you potentially need even fewer appraisals (e.g. low LTV ratio, significant assets, 800+ credit scores, etc).

I'm not poo-pooing our profession. I'm being realistic. 30 years ago, the internet didn't exist, digital photography didn't exist, MLS and property DNA information was housed at local appraisal districts and RE offices, etc. The users of our services depended on us as much to supply the data they needed as they did our analysis. They no longer need the data - they have access to it now. And the automated models are quickly rising to the credibility levels of traditional appraisals.

Now, I think the folks who choose to brave 3.6 will see a pretty good uptick in volume - I just don't know how long it will last.

 

[Bill75]

Here in Texas, AMC orders are merely impossible to do right now, looks like they are taking the easy to moderately difficult ones. Now direct lender orders are normal... The math aint mathin