I have seen the future

[Doug Wegener]

Recent Trends and Usage (2025 Data)
The use of appraisal-free options varies significantly based on the type of loan being processed:

• Purchase Loans: In June 2025, Fannie Mae’s purchase waiver rate was 11.5%. However, for the specific 80–90% loan-to-value (LTV) bracket recently opened for waivers, usage rapidly increased to about 15%.
• Refinance Loans: Historically, these have the highest waiver rates. As of January 2025, 37% of no-cash-out refinances and 20% of cash-out refinances used waivers.
• Total GSE Combined: The combined waiver rate for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was reported at 17% in April 2025.
  Appraisal Institute +2
• 
  
• Here is what I am seeing in recent appraisal requests: 1) 50 acre property with 50,000 feet of marketable timber and a producing orchard 2) 2 upscale homes on a lot where there are no comps 3) Log home on acreage 4) Home on 18 acres with shop /studio and 80000 gallon cement pond with old irrigation rights,5) Custom river frontage home with no comps similarily located or recent, etc. etc. In other words, all assignments were complex and time consuming. All AMC orders. No AMC is willing to pay an adequate fee to do these assignments. In times past the only reason these assignments made sense is because you made up for it with easier non-complex assignments that were not so time consuming. Now that the non-complex assignments are going the way of the dinosaur with appraisal waivers, it makes no sense to do the complex assignments for an inadequate fee. I do believe the AMC's are now cutting their own throats. The business model does not work anymore.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Most complex assignments should be done on an hourly basis.

 

[Doug Wegener]

Should be but that doesn't not fit the AMC business model

 

[alebrewer]

I'd venture that at least 40-50% of residential GSE/FHA/VA mortgages don't need appraisals. The quantity and quality of data available to collateral underwriters is sufficient (now) to mitigate collateral loss risk for most homes in conforming neighborhoods. And, while condition can be a significant impact on value, the PDR option, I think, gives users adequate control over that unknown as well. And then, if you factor in ANY credit side metrics into the equation - you potentially need even fewer appraisals (e.g. low LTV ratio, significant assets, 800+ credit scores, etc).

I'm not poo-pooing our profession. I'm being realistic. 30 years ago, the internet didn't exist, digital photography didn't exist, MLS and property DNA information was housed at local appraisal districts and RE offices, etc. The users of our services depended on us as much to supply the data they needed as they did our analysis. They no longer need the data - they have access to it now. And the automated models are quickly rising to the credibility levels of traditional appraisals.

Now, I think the folks who choose to brave 3.6 will see a pretty good uptick in volume - I just don't know how long it will last.

 

[Bill75]

Here in Texas, AMC orders are merely impossible to do right now, looks like they are taking the easy to moderately difficult ones. Now direct lender orders are normal... The math aint mathin

 

[Whtwhale]

It's important to note the greatly increased risk to our insurance of these complex assignments. If the market turns, or continues to turn in many places, real appraisals will be used as a way to backstop the losses. This has always been the case, but with highly complex assignments being a greater share of the workload, it makes the likelihood of a repurchase that much higher.

 

[NC Appraising]

I agree with the OP. I'll add...

It's not only the uad 3.6 that will cause most of the veteran appraisers to leave, it's going to be a combo of the uad 3.6 And only doing complex orders.

The uad 3.6 overall will equal in time to complete to the current uad. Not having to drive by the comps will equal the new form out.

In my opinion, it's the fees...yes, in the beginning we will blame the uad 3.6.

My workload has decreased by half. Im doing half the appraisals for the same fee.

I'll of my work seems to be complex or last minute rush appraisals becuse there is a value issue.

Something has to give. Im seeing orders going unassigned from one of the largestest lenders...$50 - $100 more ant going to cut it. The fee needs to be doubled.

As DW said, the truth in lending needs to be changed.

The quality of work that I'm seeing is pathetic. It seems that these newer appraisers are just pumping them out, complex and all. Trying to make it up in volume.

We are going to have to make a choice...

Do good quality reports at the same fee and become the frog in the water. Go out of business broke.

Work 80 hrs a a week and produce quality reports and lie to ourselves about our real wage

Or go to the dark side. Produce skippy AI appraisals and to heck with it. Put a number on it and move on. Churn and burn until it all comes crashing down in ten years.

 

[alebrewer]

And only doing complex orders.

I think this is probably going to cause folks the most reflux. As per usual, tho, it's a double edged sword. Yes - 'easy' appraisals will become more and more infrequent, but as technology continues to improve, that should (I'd expect) create some economies for the appraiser as well...

 

[TC]

I agree with the OP. I'll add...

It's not only the uad 3.6 that will cause most of the veteran appraisers to leave, it's going to be a combo of the uad 3.6 And only doing complex orders.

The uad 3.6 overall will equal in time to complete to the current uad. Not having to drive by the comps will equal the new form out.

In my opinion, it's the fees...yes, in the beginning we will blame the uad 3.6.

My workload has decreased by half. Im doing half the appraisals for the same fee.

I'll of my work seems to be complex or last minute rush appraisals becuse there is a value issue.

Something has to give. Im seeing orders going unassigned from one of the largestest lenders...$50 - $100 more ant going to cut it. The fee needs to be doubled.

As DW said, the truth in lending needs to be changed.

The quality of work that I'm seeing is pathetic. It seems that these newer appraisers are just pumping them out, complex and all. Trying to make it up in volume.

We are going to have to make a choice...

Do good quality reports at the same fee and become the frog in the water. Go out of business broke.

Work 80 hrs a a week and produce quality reports and lie to ourselves about our real wage

Or go to the dark side. Produce skippy AI appraisals and to heck with it. Put a number on it and move on. Churn and burn until it all comes crashing down in ten years.

I'll take Door #3 , Monty!

 

[Alsie35]

Recent Trends and Usage (2025 Data)
The use of appraisal-free options varies significantly based on the type of loan being processed:

• Purchase Loans: In June 2025, Fannie Mae’s purchase waiver rate was 11.5%. However, for the specific 80–90% loan-to-value (LTV) bracket recently opened for waivers, usage rapidly increased to about 15%.
• Refinance Loans: Historically, these have the highest waiver rates. As of January 2025, 37% of no-cash-out refinances and 20% of cash-out refinances used waivers.
• Total GSE Combined: The combined waiver rate for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac was reported at 17% in April 2025.
  View attachment 108878Appraisal Institute +2
• 
  
• Here is what I am seeing in recent appraisal requests: 1) 50 acre property with 50,000 feet of marketable timber and a producing orchard 2) 2 upscale homes on a lot where there are no comps 3) Log home on acreage 4) Home on 18 acres with shop /studio and 80000 gallon cement pond with old irrigation rights,5) Custom river frontage home with no comps similarily located or recent, etc. etc. In other words, all assignments were complex and time consuming. All AMC orders. No AMC is willing to pay an adequate fee to do these assignments. In times past the only reason these assignments made sense is because you made up for it with easier non-complex assignments that were not so time consuming. Now that the non-complex assignments are going the way of the dinosaur with appraisal waivers, it makes no sense to do the complex assignments for an inadequate fee. I do believe the AMC's are now cutting their own throats. The business model does not work anymore.

I'm seeing lots and lots of FHA purchases and some refinances, some conventional and asset valuation work, and am turning down (and de-platforming) the purveyors of the FILTH like you related in your post. Life is too short. If it ain't easy-peasy - its not in our game plan, and hasn't been for at least 8 years.

We work til mid-August, and then - WE (SEMI)-RETIRE and go on a 2-month vacation to Europe. (Technically we intend to keep doing FHA and 2.6 orders into 2027 until "The 3/6 Abomination" is fully implemented, but at a reduced capacity, only close to home, and only for "Direct Lender $$$".) It helps, even in these Abominable Times, to be in the right market area and have the right client base.