"Inflation is coming down"

[Terrel L. Shields]

I am convinced the next 30 days will see one of three outcomes. Companies will be reporting first quarter results starting in early April. The economy remains as is, inflation stubbornly high, but no major lay offs, no high flying companies but the stock market maintaining a strong showing, or 2- the Fed blinks, drops interest rates and the stock market and inflation take off like a fox with its tail on fire, or 3- the Fed does not blink and Wall St. realizes the interest rates will remain high or even increase and then, the stock market will fall 10-20% in a classic recession, and if the Fed then drops rates the markets will explode again and inflation comes in so strong the Fed cannot stop it. This is all about the credible threat. The Fed is going to maintain the threat by first offering, then withdrawing the notion that they will drop rates. Gas prices will fall with the markets as it means the economy is slowing, and rise with the markets because it means the economy is steady or higher.

 

[Charles West]

Powell sounding slightly bullish for late year cuts to the discount rate if core comes down. Not sure if Biden is listening though, but Republicans probably are.

 

[Charles West]

Larry Summer's analysis of the rate of inflation back to November of '23 using the old methodology to calculate the CPI.
Last November comes in at 7% with the peak occurring in April of 2022 at 18%. Ever so slightly higher than the official version.

Comparing Past and Present Inflation

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, and business professionals.

www.nber.org

 

[OSU Beavers]

Powell says yes, but the data says no way.

Who will win?

 

[Charles West]

Powell said he's caving, going for 3 rate cuts this year. That will help with borrowing costs but will do little to lower the core rate of inflation, only a Republican will do that.

 

[Fernando]

Powell said he's caving, going for 3 rate cuts this year. That will help with borrowing costs but will do little to lower the core rate of inflation, only a Republican will do that.

We know rate cuts would help our economy as well as for Biden.

On Kudrow today, he said he hopes for rate cuts after the election.
As always, the RW wants Trump over our national interest.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

the RW wants Trump over our national interest.

Is it in the nation's interest for rate cut, then watch the markets explode and home prices increase 50%, pricing almost all of the lower classes entirely out...Oh, I forgot. For the landed Gentry like Fern, you get to soak those people with high rents keeping them impoverished serfs on your plantation.

 

[Fernando]

Is it in the nation's interest for rate cut, then watch the markets explode and home prices increase 50%, pricing almost all of the lower classes entirely out...Oh, I forgot. For the landed Gentry like Fern, you get to soak those people with high rents keeping them impoverished serfs on your plantation.

I can only get market rents and in current market, rents not going as high like in the past.
I'll wait til next month and hopefully market improves so I can raise my rents.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

can only get market rents

And when people are priced out of buying do you think "market rents" are going to decrease? LOL... Did they get a raise at the same time?

 

[Charles West]

You may not even get insurance next year unless your places are in nice condition.