Very few, if any 2055 were done for origination lending, so there is no default comparison to be had. Origination loans have mainly used appraisals and thus there is no control group. That is why fannie is proceeding with caution.
Appraisals can not prevent default, but then neither can any other form of valuation. The change now is due some lenders pressuring for speed in the point of loan decision,.
Since the property collateral for a loan is substantial it still needs an inspection, investors need to know what they are buying /rule out the problem properties. Since USPAP did not define inspection for appraisal purpose as part of appraisal practice/sig assistance, that allows a USPAP compliant appraisal using a non appraisers to inspect. ( label data collection to CYA) Why use non appraisers- because they comprise a cheaper and more plentiful labor pool, Since RE agents are in the test group the reason is not for "better" inspections, - at least they are not pretending "better" is the reason..
The housing market crash --back then a mortgage broker could order an appraisal, and if it did not hit value, throw it in the trash and order another one. I bet there were enough good appraisals thrown in the trash to have mitigated . What banks stay silent on is majority of HELOC loans were no appraisal using an AVM or BPO and many wildly over valued, - (I applied for one, valued 150% over ). The first credit pulled was HELOC-overnight banks froze borrower's equity line of credit, which set off panic selling as the first wave .
We may go the way of Kodak or play a different role in the process. Will see ...