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Investing Discipline

Charles West

Elite Member
Gold Supporting Member
Joined
Sep 14, 2004
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
California
I am resisting the rash impulse to jump in further than I already have. I woke up the other morning thinking it would be a good idea to take a sizable position in Coreweave ahead of NVIDIA's reporting on Wednesday afternoon, given that the former has come down in share price by over 50% from its high. Still, it also has a negative price-to-earnings ratio of 27%, although its revenues and order backlog are substantial. Since I am a neophyte in search of a clue, I now think it may be prudent to do an exercise in paper trading first, to see if my intuition is worth a chit. Besides searching for validation, I must admit that I am having fun delving into the topic.
 
I’m reading more Michael Burry and Howard Marks lately. Especially Burry regarding AI stocks being in a possible bubble, AI is real whereas much of the dot com hype was fake, but even though AI is real and making money, is it still being over hyped? AI P/E is being exaggerated according to Burry. He made some strong accusations about Palintir regarding this.
 
Everyone seems to be an AI expert now, but no one seems to notice the executives treating the companies like ATMs. They'll probably rally soon enough, but a lot of good companies out there that no one wants because of everyone's AI myopia.
 
I heard something about financial markets, the federal government, and Bitcoin this morning, but I'm not sure what the specifics are. The upshot was that Bitcoin will reverse course after whatever the bottleneck is is cleared.
 
S&P 500 (suggest a Vanguard ETF). Your investing in big real, established companies, with real employees, making real stuff and services.

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S&P 500 (suggest a Vanguard ETF). Your investing in big real, established companies, with real employees, making real stuff and services.

View attachment 104915
Good advice. I need to be risk adverse, and ETFs are a good way to spread it out.
 
If you're still working, open an Individual 401K and max it out every year. Then max out a SEP-IRA, and then max out your individual Roth.

If not working, I'd still max out a Roth and IRA and you can self-direct via Schwab, Fidelity, etc. I'd put about 50% in a Large Cap Growth fund and that will give you exposure to the FANNG+ stocks. An S&P index ETF is also a good place to park some money for the long term. Personally I'm at the age where I like some of the preferred stocks paying 6-8% year after year, and then I have a "Rather than go to Vegas" account where I do some gambling. My Palantir is up 180% in the past 18 months. I bought Nvidia in that account and made over 1,000% in 2 years, and my AES is up 40% in about 1 year. I've lost some $$ on some stocks but overall, my total portfolio has returned an average of 11.5% +/- over the past 35 years.

Develop a strategy that fits you and stick with it in up and down markets. Remember the saying..."Buy when there's blood in the streets...even if its your own blood". I was buying stocks like a kid in a candy shop in '08-'10. I bought good quality stocks and they're up about 400% since then.
 
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At 71, I am looking at a 2 or 3-year horizon before I dip back in for some income supplementation or profit taking. I've got a Fidelity US Tech ETF and I should probably stick with ETFs given my knowledge base. Was thinking another third in an energy ETF and splitting another third into smaller holdings of indexes.
 
S&P 500 (suggest a Vanguard ETF). Your investing in big real, established companies, with real employees, making real stuff and services.

View attachment 104915
I've got a buddy who is one of those Vanguard "Bogleheads" and he is constantly preaching the Bogle method and S & P. He likes Bitcoin almost as much as you do and we have some fun conversations. He is finally considering putting a small percentage in Bitcoin mining stock and treating it like a tech stock. :)
 
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