• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Is Economy Doing Well?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Randolph Kinney said:
The current boom has worked that way too. And what a boom it was. Was – past tense because it’s over.
Click to expand...
Of all the primary markets in the USA, San Francisco has always fascinated me the most because of the economic extremes that exist there. But let me ask you something. Do you think San Francisco (and perhaps New York as well) is simply headed for a minor correction or do you see a bust? Just a simple short-term correction would be economically healthy.
 
TXTea said:
Of all the primary markets in the USA, San Francisco has always fascinated me the most because of the economic extremes that exist there. But let me ask you something. Do you think San Francisco (and perhaps New York as well) is simply headed for a minor correction or do you see a bust?
Click to expand...

The keys are jobs as well as foreign buyers. Both have slowed tremendously. The symptom of being overbuilt and overpriced is declining rents. People are moving out of California in general as well as San Francisco particularly. Most of California's tax base is the income tax and particularly San Francisco.

California County-Level Sales Taxes

San Francisco County 9%

Personal income tax
California collects income tax from its residents at the following rates.

For single and married filing separately taxpayers:

  • 1% on the first $7,850 of taxable income.
  • 2% on taxable income between $7,851 and $18,610.
  • 4% on taxable income between $18,611 and $29,372.
  • 6% on taxable income between $29,373 and $40,773.
  • 8% on taxable income between $40,774 and $51,530.
  • 9.3% on taxable income between $51,531 and $263,222.
  • 10.3% on taxable income between $263,223 and 315,866.
  • 11.3% on taxable income between $315,867 and $526,443.
  • 12.3% on taxable income of $526,444 and above.
A 1% surcharge, the mental health services tax, is collected on taxable incomes of $1 million or more, making California's highest marginal rate 13.3%.

Capital gains are taxed at the ordinary income rate.
 
  • Miami led the nation for the biggest rise in rent for one-bedroom apartments: a 9 percent increase, from $1,599 to $1,739.
  • Seattle scored the largest fall in rent: 13 percent, from $2,170 to $1,890.
  • Three California cities made the Top 10 for “Biggest Rise”: Bakersfield, up 9 percent; Fresno, up 6 percent; Riverside, also up 6 percent.
  • And four California cities made the Top 10 for “Biggest Fall”: In addition to San Jose and San Francisco, they are Los Angeles, down 8 percent, and Long Beach, down 7 percent.
http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/09/25/new-report-shows-rents-falling-in-san-jose-and-san-francisco/
 
This is what the San Francisco housing bubble bursting would look like

San Francisco has the highest risk of any U.S. city of being in a bubble, according a report this week by UBS Group AG. The city is increasingly vulnerable to a pullback that could come from a number of factors, an author of the report says.

The UBS Housing Bubble Index Report 2016 declared the San Francisco housing market to be "overvalued" by crunching metrics that include home price-to-income ratio and changes in the mortgage-to-gross domestic product ratio. It then matched those scores up to historic norms in the area and found that the market is in danger of seeing a correction in residential real price appreciation, as well as a "normalizing" of sales prices.

http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfranc...isco-housing-bubble-bust-real-estate-ubs.html
 
gregb said:
Anyone else observing much on tv and radio about the likelihood of a California earthquake, which is spurring interest in EQ insurance?

http://www.highlandnews.net/news/pu...cle_0858cc2c-84da-11e6-95e9-f3d77136b271.html
Click to expand...

No, however, I read the warning:

Scientists estimate the probability of a quake with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher on the southern San Andreas fault being triggered is as high as 1 in 100 and as low as 1 in 3,000. The average chance for such an earthquake striking on any given week is 1 in 6,000. That heightened probability will last through Tuesday.

Heightened earthquake alert issued for Southern California

Posted: Oct 01, 2016 6:42 PM PDTUpdated: Oct 03, 2016 4:56 PM PDT

http://www.cbs8.com/story/33296082/heightened-earthquake-alert-issued-for-southern-california

 
San Francisco Has Highest Level of Mortgage Stress

San Francisco has the highest level of "mortgage stress" of the top 100 largest cities in the United States by population, according to a report from personal finance website Finder.com.

The City by the Bay topped the list due to its high mortgage repayments, which represent 61.47% of the median household income on average. Mortgage repayments formed the basis of the ranking.

http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com...st=email&eid=a1c98854c7eb3968865808b1768b2946
 
While half a million dollars might buy you a mansion in much of the U.S., in San Francisco it won’t even buy you a studio apartment.

That’s the latest analysis from Polaris Pacific, a Los Angeles real-estate research firm that focuses on West Coast markets. Despite some recent softening at the top of the market in San Francisco, even buyers who could afford a $500,000 mortgage, (a $2,300 monthly payment, including property taxes and insurance) won’t find many one-bedroom condominiums in the city, let alone a single-family home.

For example, in San Francisco, where the median home value is now $1.1 million, up 3.2% in the past year, a $500,000 purchase would only get you a 400 square-foot condominium, Polaris notes, most likely a studio or tiny one-bedroom unit at best.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ca...an-francisco-move-here-2016-10-05?siteid=nbkh
 
I own an 1800 sf GLA home on 3,800 sf zero lot line, lot. I can sell my home and buy 3 homes (same size as mine) on half acre lots in North Carolina for the sale of my home. Property taxes are about 75% lower too, not to mention sales tax, income tax, license plate tax, gasoline, electricity, services, etc.

They say for everyone one person that moves into California, two people move out.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top