Is there Really a Housing Crisis?

[alebrewer]

And what as the ADU movement done? Well, increased traffic for one.

haha - unintended consequences. Backfilling where there is already existing infrastructure always creates problems.

 

[WestMichiganCG]

Not everywhere. And what as the ADU movement done? Well, increased traffic for one. But did it lower rent? Not really. Rent in NW Arkansas is affordable if you have a "good" job. But if you are a clerk on a 29 hour schedule (so you don't get company insurance as Obama mandated) well, no rent is "high" for a part time job. So you get 2 part-time jobs but still no insurance. And yet the urban spawl into farmland continiues. If we can get all 11 million or so illegals moved out, then there will be obvious amounts of surplus property. If we can tax the L out of hedge fund home buyers and LLCs controlling entire subdivisions then balance can be restored.

I appraised 2 estates of rental property last year that sold. The buyers jacked the rents up by about 30% overall. And they fired the property managers to replace with their own crew. So, the people living in 3 bed 2 bath duplexes were paying $700-800 are now paying $1,100 or more per month. The 2 bed 1 bath cheap apartments went from $500 a month to $750. The houses? The renters are paying $1,200-1,500 that were paying $900.

All good points. I would say that I've seen specific cases where ADU's have successfully allowed for families to take care of their aging relatives or allowed for kids to stay in the town they grew up in. Allowing for higher densities is also a good tool. Your comment shows that you can appreciate the complexity of the issue.

Here is an article that agrees with you on ADU's:

ADU boom not helping housing crisis

Despite their potential, most ADU projects are high-end and do not significantly contribute to solving the housing affordability crisis.

jbrec.com

 

[Fernando]

My issue is 'optimal' depends. The article reads macro but the problem is micro. Detroit's optimal level is going to be different than San Fransisco and there are areas that are less affected by the 'housing crisis' than others. I tend to watch less news because the problems are too often oversimplified, politicized or super depressing. My overview of the article was that the housing shortage in the U.S. is a myth, and is being used to advance a Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) agenda. The vacancy portion is more interesting, something I've spent a significant time researching for market studies. It's tied to growth and jobs. The guy that wrote it is a lawyer and was the former deputy assistant secretary of the HUD. My guess is that his oversimplification is partly influence by nonsense he saw going through the HUD department. Some of the DEI initiatives were ill advised but he reads like a hammer that only sees nails.

Today SF mayor wanted to make it easier to build multiunits in SFR zoning areas. SF has shortage of housing and would make sense to build more housing.
However in his news conference the local NIMBYs were protesting and interrupting the mayor in his message.
Not just in SF but other cities here. Residents who moved in 20 years ago feel entitled to keep the density and way of life same and not build more housing.
More demand and low supply are ingredients for high real estate values and high rents.