Landfill Valuation

[Terry L. Hart]

I provide valuation services to a large county. On occasion I get an odd ball request, the following is one. The Director of Solid Waste assigned me to appraise the AS IS and AS IF market value of two active landfills. The AS IF is no issue, the AS IS, Is. I am seeking advice on providing a credible value of the AS IS sites. One is 352 acres and the other 160 acres, not adjacent to one another. My current mindset is to advise the Director 1. my competency level is not up to the task. and 2. Reliable, Credible data is very difficult to obtain. Suggestions?

 

[Retired-70]

I provide valuation services to a large county. On occasion I get an odd ball request, the following is one. The Director of Solid Waste assigned me to appraise the AS IS and AS IF market value of two active landfills. The AS IF is no issue, the AS IS, Is. I am seeking advice on providing a credible value of the AS IS sites. One is 352 acres and the other 160 acres, not adjacent to one another. My current mindset is to advise the Director 1. my competency level is not up to the task. and 2. Reliable, Credible data is very difficult to obtain. Suggestions?

Grok: Michigan is a surplus-airspace market, so the comps look nothing like coastal California. Statewide remaining life is about 23 years on FY 2025 throughput, imported waste is still coming in because the state surcharge is only $0.36 a ton, and a permitted site is valuable mainly if it sits on the Detroit haul and still has years left.
EGLE’s FY 2025 report is the capacity set. Total disposal was 22.6 million tons, down 6.35 percent from FY 2024. Of that, about 18.5 million tons was Michigan waste, 3.2 million came from Canada, and 0.9 million from other states. Remaining airspace on the sites that matter:

Landfill	County	Operator	Remaining airspace	Years left (EGLE calc / reported)
Carleton Farms	Wayne	Republic	69.6 million cy	37 / 38
Autumn Hills	Ottawa	WM	19.3 million cy	32 / 25
Granger Wood Street	Clinton	Granger	16.7 million cy	35 / 34
Brent Run	Genesee	GFL	11.3 million cy	29 / 12
Arbor Hills	Washtenaw	GFL	7.2 million cy	4 / 6
Citizens Disposal	Genesee	GFL	4.2 million cy	10 / 10
Eagle Valley	Oakland	WM	4.8 million cy	6 / 7

Arbor Hills is the scarce one. It took about 1.88 million tons in 2025, the fourth-largest volume in the state, and GFL is already asking Washtenaw County to put a north expansion into the materials-management plan. That expansion is pitched at as much as 50 years. Carleton Farms, 664 acres at 28800 Clark Road in Sumpter Township, is the long-life opposite: Republic, license through March 2028, and a June 2024 closure and post-closure cost estimate of $67.8 million against a perpetual-care fund balance of about $40.3 million as of October 2025.
Gate-rate comps are thin because operators do not publish contract prices. Compiled 2024–2026 ranges put Michigan municipal solid waste around $32–$58 a ton, with a midpoint near $45 and a small verified sample averaging about $61. The only hard published increase is Marquette County, which went to $87 a ton on July 1, 2025, to pay for a PFAS leachate plant required by an EGLE consent order. The state surcharge is still $0.36 a ton. Whitmer’s FY 2026 budget proposed $5, against a Great Lakes average around $5.25. That $5 would be a small slice of the gate fee, not a change in the asset.

 

[glenn walker]

Check with your E&O Provider most have exclusions on former landfill and potential environmental sites and most appraisers won't get near them. Often valuations are done by other experts. Just a suggestion it's your call.

 

[Elliott]

"Remaining airspace"

Aren't property rights fascinating? From the center to the earth to the sky. Not only is there airspace rights, values are affected by "over burden."

I've always wanted b build a "high pressure" machine and place it over Oregon for a few months during winter and decrease the overly abundant of 'rain rights.'

 

[Retired-70]

"Remaining airspace"

Aren't property rights fascinating? From the center to the earth to the sky. Not only is there airspace rights, values are affected by "over burden."

I've always wanted b build a "high pressure" machine and place it over Oregon for a few months during winter and decrease the overly abundant of 'rain rights.'

I love the rain. It's the damn smog there; I can't stand it.

 

[Zoe]

Grok: Michigan is a surplus-airspace market, so the comps look nothing like coastal California. Statewide remaining life is about 23 years on FY 2025 throughput, imported waste is still coming in because the state surcharge is only $0.36 a ton, and a permitted site is valuable mainly if it sits on the Detroit haul and still has years left.
EGLE’s FY 2025 report is the capacity set. Total disposal was 22.6 million tons, down 6.35 percent from FY 2024. Of that, about 18.5 million tons was Michigan waste, 3.2 million came from Canada, and 0.9 million from other states. Remaining airspace on the sites that matter:

Landfill	County	Operator	Remaining airspace	Years left (EGLE calc / reported)
Carleton Farms	Wayne	Republic	69.6 million cy	37 / 38
Autumn Hills	Ottawa	WM	19.3 million cy	32 / 25
Granger Wood Street	Clinton	Granger	16.7 million cy	35 / 34
Brent Run	Genesee	GFL	11.3 million cy	29 / 12
Arbor Hills	Washtenaw	GFL	7.2 million cy	4 / 6
Citizens Disposal	Genesee	GFL	4.2 million cy	10 / 10
Eagle Valley	Oakland	WM	4.8 million cy	6 / 7

Arbor Hills is the scarce one. It took about 1.88 million tons in 2025, the fourth-largest volume in the state, and GFL is already asking Washtenaw County to put a north expansion into the materials-management plan. That expansion is pitched at as much as 50 years. Carleton Farms, 664 acres at 28800 Clark Road in Sumpter Township, is the long-life opposite: Republic, license through March 2028, and a June 2024 closure and post-closure cost estimate of $67.8 million against a perpetual-care fund balance of about $40.3 million as of October 2025.
Gate-rate comps are thin because operators do not publish contract prices. Compiled 2024–2026 ranges put Michigan municipal solid waste around $32–$58 a ton, with a midpoint near $45 and a small verified sample averaging about $61. The only hard published increase is Marquette County, which went to $87 a ton on July 1, 2025, to pay for a PFAS leachate plant required by an EGLE consent order. The state surcharge is still $0.36 a ton. Whitmer’s FY 2026 budget proposed $5, against a Great Lakes average around $5.25. That $5 would be a small slice of the gate fee, not a change in the asset.

Yeah, you have to get with some landfill experts. No other way. H&B use on market value appraisal forces you to get with landfill experts.

If you are not doing market value appraisal, the whole game changes because H&B use is not required.