Long Term Appreciation Rates and Predicting the "Bottom"

[Riick]

Do you think there's an audience for that level of analysis? My sense of the reader of your average mortgage related appraisal report is that they're not interested in, and perhaps not even intellectually capable of absorbing, much beyond "see, prices are decreasing", and "see, there's more listings and fewer sales", at that point they're happy that you checked the correct boxes on page 1 and they move on. I agree there's probably some merit in the appraiser doing that analysis for their own edification, but I'm not sure its ready for the loan processors.

I learned - back when I was a "research analyst"- that 99.44% of people understand plus, minus, average, and percentage - up and down.
Give 'em a median, a mode, a standard deviation, or a T-test, and watch their eyes roll.
If a good statistical analysis makes your day, go for it, but don't expect sophisticated stuff to carry any weight with most people.
You can present it ....but then joo hav' to 'splain it. --- Defeats the purpose.
No fun.
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