Market areas and Market Trends

[alebrewer]

A predominately rural MLS will suffer wild swings in data
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Of course - because of the heterogeneity of the data. $100k home situated next to a $1M home. And even when you do filter for variability, the remaining 'competing' data set is often so small that outliers skew any trend analysis. My prediction is that this new rule is not going to be much of a burden on those folks who have relatively large competing property data sets. It's gonna be like writing a book for the rural guys who are trying to quantify trends...

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

It's gonna be like writing a book for the rural guys who are trying to quantify trends...

And, of course, FNMA will assure you that they do not require any more effort out of rural appraisers than the urban ones... yeah, right. You can write a novel and no underwriter will read it - not the AMC goofs, not the bank UWs, not anyone. URF'd.

 

[Joe Flacco]

It is not a rural issue. It is the same in suburban and urban neighborhoods.

 

[alebrewer]

Agreed - it's technically not a rural issue per se. It's a lack of data issue - which occurs more frequently in rural markets.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I see this a lot these days. Median sale price moving higher while median price per SF moving sideways.

 

[Joe Flacco]

How much explanation is needed when the public is not sophisticated? Their general knowledge is limited to what they read in the media and that is national median sale price trend and metro area median sale price trend.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

It's a lack of data issue

and the diversity of the market area. We have towns where 10-20% of the homes are mobile homes sprinkled among the other residential properties, and more than 50% of all the occupants are renters. This applies to the county seat of one county in Oklahoma that I work in frequently. A mere 10 miles away, 32% of the occupants are renters and the only manf. houses are in MH Parks. That is the difference in a working town and a town who depends upon retirees and lakeside businesses.

 

[TerryRohrer]

And another issue of the "Who Could Have Predicted That" newsletter. The following was recently posted elsewhere:

"Well, got my first revision request asking why my market conditions analysis differs from some HDI (sic) report that they didn’t provide me with, here we go!"

 

[Non Sequitur]

And another issue of the "Who Could Have Predicted That" newsletter. The following was recently posted elsewhere:

"Well, got my first revision request asking why my market conditions analysis differs from some HDI (sic) report that they didn’t provide me with, here we go!"

Yeah, if I’m reading it correctly the appraisal shows stable and the HDI (?) shows -6.9%. And now a second appraiser is claiming he just got the same stip. Interesting times ahead.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Yeah, if I’m reading it correctly the appraisal shows stable and the HDI (?) shows -6.9%. And now a second appraiser is claiming he just got the same stip. Interesting times ahead.

I had ClearCrapital try that 10 years ago. I told them I was not going to address it until they sent their entire dataset and analysis to me so that I could explain their errors to them. They would not.