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Market collapsing

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Doug Wegener

Senior Member
Joined
Apr 14, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Oregon
This is the worst one I've seen yet.


1) 1618 Arborella Ct, Perris, California

Condo, 1573 sqft sold 9/14/2007 for $336,000. Builder sale.

2) 3367 Night Bloom Lane, Perris

REO Re-sale,condo, model match, same complex.

sold 4/11/2008 for $142,800. Another pending in the same
complex supports that sales price.

7 month decline equal 57.5%.

8.2 % decline monthly
 

Randolph Kinney

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Just curious, how is the population base of Perris doing? Declining?
 

PropertyEconomics

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New Mexico
Question .... how much motivation do you think the sellers have in these instances and how much does that affect the market?
At some point the sellers (atypical at best) will drive the markets even further down which is neither good for stock holders or the market. There is something very wrong about that and yet there is no way to stop it.
 

Blueprint

Senior Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2005
Professional Status
Certified Residential Appraiser
State
Oregon
Yeah!! Maybe they will be free in a few months, right??

Builder sales are not good indicators of market value, especially in these times. I don't buy values dropping 57.5% in 7 months. Need more consistent data to support those numbers.
 

Randolph Kinney

Elite Member
Joined
Apr 7, 2005
Professional Status
Retired Appraiser
State
North Carolina
Question .... how much motivation do you think the sellers have in these instances and how much does that affect the market?
At some point the sellers (atypical at best) will drive the markets even further down which is neither good for stock holders or the market. There is something very wrong about that and yet there is no way to stop it.
When the S&L crisis came to full boil, the RTC was formed to take the properties and hold them until they got a price that put a floor under the market.

Bring back the RTC.
 

PropertyEconomics

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New Mexico
When the S&L crisis came to full boil, the RTC was formed to take the properties and hold them until they got a price that put a floor under the market.

Bring back the RTC.


The RTC was brought in to handle properties from the S&Ls that were closed. They did not take properties from operating institutions.
And if I read FDIC correctly, they are predicting about 200 bank failures in the next 12 - 18 months. Could be interesting.
 

Ray Miller

Elite Member
Joined
Feb 20, 2002
Professional Status
Licensed Appraiser
State
Wisconsin
When the S&L crisis came to full boil, the RTC was formed to take the properties and hold them until they got a price that put a floor under the market.

Bring back the RTC.


Those properties were owned by the S & L that were insured by the goverment and went bust. RTC ended up with them to hold. These that are in free fall now are not yet owned by the Goverment. So I don't see how the RTC could be established yet.
 

PropertyEconomics

Elite Member
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Professional Status
Certified General Appraiser
State
New Mexico
The market is much different these days, most of the holdings that are bad are held by secondary market participants or by large lenders who are not banks, although, a collapse of Countrywide could result in a large number of properties, which are not insured by the government, but that could be disposed of by the government.
Most bank bad notes are on construction lending and few portfolio loans any more.
 
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