Market shift coming.

[Airstream]

Just read this:

The U.S. housing market tilted further in buyers’ favor in September, as falling demand and a growing supply of homes pushed the gap between sellers and buyers to its widest in Redfin records dating to 2013.

An estimated 1.51 million sellers outnumbered 928,892 buyers by 62.6 percent, up from a revised 56.9 percent gap in August, the real estate brokerage said in an Oct. 14 report.

 

[Doug DeMars]

About 20% of my territory is generally stable...the other 80% is a mix of slight decline to moderate decline. Some areas I work have been on a steady decline since the Spring of 2024 and it doesn't look good for the near future.

Here's a fun 10 year chart for ya...

 

[Airstream]

About 20% of my territory is generally stable...the other 80% is a mix of slight decline to moderate decline. Some areas I work have been on a steady decline since the Spring of 2024 and it doesn't look good for the near future.

Here's a fun 10 year chart for ya...

View attachment 112551

What I noticed is the trend was pretty tight through 2021. And now there are values scattered all over the place. Has to be kind of hard figuring out what stuff is worth. But the general trend is still down. Is this primary residence market?

 

[alebrewer]

I've started incorporating price trend analysis by tier in my market analysis. It's interesting to see the price trends at different price segments.

 

[John Hassler]

The “K” shaped economy seems to be playing a roll here.

Just looked at a lake front property with dock for myself and inventory is low and prices stable. The property I was looking at had been on the market 3 days and the agent had two offers in hand and a third coming. I declined to be in a bidding war. If you’re off the water the Zillow map of listings looks like chicken pox with most having price drops and few homes moving.

Also spoke with an agent about homes 10 minutes drive from SF. The low end ($1.5-3m) is strong with mostly young tech worker buyers, the middle is slow to moderate ($3-5m), and the upper (>$5m) is strong with tech owner buyers. Multiple offers and over asking sales are still common.

Interesting market. Trying to figure out how to take advantage of it.

 

[Zoe]

These long term home interest rates are playing a role. The same person that bought a house at 2-3% interest rates vs somebody trying to buy that house today at way higher interest rate can't afford it.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I like to look at both the median sale price and median price per SF. Look how the exact same set of data tells you something different. If you are only looking at the median sale price, then you would think that prices in DC are at all time highs. The median price per SF is telling a totally different story.

Seeing these conflicting trends makes you want to understand why.

 

[Zoe]

Look at wage rates vs inflation over past few years. Inflation is higher than wage rate increases currently.

 

[Zoe]

Historical Wage Growth vs. Inflation in the U.S.​

Since 2019, U.S. nominal wages have risen about 34% while CPI inflation has been up ~31%, leaving real wages only slightly higher; since 2021, inflation has briefly outpaced wages for 25 consecutive months, eroding purchasing power keepingupwithinflation.com+2.

Key Historical Data (2019–2026)​

• Nominal wages: Average hourly earnings rose from $28.00/hr (2019) to $37.62/hr (Jun 2026) — +34%.
• CPI (inflation): Index rose from 257.56 (2019) to 333.09 (2026) — +31%.
• Real wage change: After adjusting for CPI, real wages are only marginally higher than 2019.
• Annual CPI inflation rates: 2019 (1.2%), 2020 (4.7%), 2021 (8.0%), 2022 (4.1%), 2023 (3.0%), 2024 (2.7%), 2025 (3.4%), 2026 (3.4%).

2021–2025 Snapshot​

• Nominal wage growth: +21.8% (Jan 2021–Jul 2025).
• CPI growth: +22.7% over same period.
• Real wage change: –0.7% cumulative, due to inflation outpacing wages from Apr 2021–Apr 2023 (25 months).
• Turning point: May 2023 saw nominal wages outpace inflation again, but the prior erosion in purchasing power was not fully recovered.

Chart Overview (Conceptual)​

A dual-axis chart would show:

• Line 1 (Nominal wages): Steady upward trend, steeper in 2021–2022, then moderating.
• Line 2 (CPI): Similar upward trend, with a sharper spike in 2021–2022.
• Gap: The vertical distance between wage and CPI lines represents real wage change — narrow in 2019–2020, negative in 2021–2023, then narrowing again post‑2023.

Interpretation​

• 2019–2020: Wages and inflation grew at similar rates; real wages stable.
• 2021–2023: Inflation surged (8% in 2021), outpacing wages for 25 months, reducing real pay.
• 2023–2026: Wage growth again exceeded inflation, but the cumulative real wage loss since 2021 remains small and negative Visual Capitalist+1.

Bottom line: While nominal wages have kept pace with inflation in recent years, the 2021–2023 inflation spike left a lasting drag on real wages, and the gap between wage and CPI growth remains the key indicator of whether workers’ purchasing power is improving keepingupwithinflation.com+2.

 

[Zoe]

It has reversed big time since the old man took office again. Inflation has passed wage rate increases. If you got a raise, overall, you are still losing money on an overall basis.

I am looking at it from a national average standpoint and not an individual family standpoint.

The average consumer's purchasing power has decreased substantially recently.

From a national standpoint, the National debt is rising substantially under this current administration.