Market shift coming.

[Doug DeMars]

What I noticed is the trend was pretty tight through 2021. And now there are values scattered all over the place. Has to be kind of hard figuring out what stuff is worth. But the general trend is still down. Is this primary residence market?

Mountain House is suburban cookie cutter land / commuterville. Nearly all Residential with some local commercial retail plus schools. It's located on the fringe of the SF Bay Area with mostly tech workers. It benefited from the Covid 19 housing bounce and low rates...big houses and telecommuting / tele-schooling setups. It has brutal commutes to Silicone Valley but not too far from some outlying employment hubs. The area swings hard with interest rates. FWIW, there is some new construction in the area so the market correction is not the same as 2007 / 2008 with builders hanging on. Despite the volatility, there is plenty of data to nail down value.

 

[Zoe]

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U.S. National Debt 2024–2026 Chart & Data​

From FY2024’s $35.46 trillion to a projected FY2026 close of about $40.17 trillion, U.S. national debt has grown steadily, with year‑end totals and growth rates available from Treasury and historical datasets [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]PrimeRates+2https://primerates.com/us-debt/national-debt-by-year/.

Key Year‑End Totals (Total Public Debt) [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]govfacts.org+1​

https://govfacts.org/tools/national-debt-tracker/​

[th width="24cqi"]Fiscal Year[/th][th width="24cqi"]End‑of‑Year Debt[/th]
[th width="24cqi"]Debt‑to‑GDP[/th] [td width="24cqi"]2024[/td][td width="24cqi"]$35.46 T[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]122.9%[/td] [td width="24cqi"]2025[/td][td width="24cqi"]$37.64 T[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]—[/td] [td width="24cqi"]2026 (proj.)[/td][td width="24cqi"]$40.17 T[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]—[/td]

Figures include both debt held by the public and intragovernmental holdings.

Growth & Trends [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]PrimeRates+1[/COLOR]​

• FY2024: $35.46 T — up from $33.17 T in FY2023.
• FY2025: $37.64 T — up $2.18 T from FY2024.
• FY2026 (YTD, Sept 29 2026): $40.10 T; projected FY2026 close $40.17 T.
• Growth rate: ~$6.8 B/day in FY2026 at current pace [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]PrimeRates[/COLOR].
• Historical context: Debt has more than doubled since FY2015 ($18.2 T) and is nearly five times FY2005 ($7.9 T) [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]PrimeRates[/COLOR].

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[Zoe]

Growth rate: ~$6.8 B/day in FY2026 at current pace on national debt. This administration is going in more National debt $6.8 billion a day based on current estimates.

 

[Zoe]

Consumer debt increasing as well:

U.S. Consumer National Debt — 2024–2026 Overview and Chart Data​

Total U.S. consumer debt reached $18.25 trillion in June 2026, up 2.1% from June 2025, with mortgages making up 74.1% of the total [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Equifaxhttps://www.equifax.com/newsroom/al...6-u-s-national-consumer-credit-trends-report/. The New York Fed’s Q2 2026 report shows a slight $13 billion drop to $18.8 trillion, the first small decline since Q2 2020 [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Statista[/COLOR].[/COLOR]

Key 2024–2026 Consumer Debt Figures​

[th width="24cqi"]Year / Period[/th][th width="24cqi"]Total Consumer Debt[/th][th width="24cqi"]Mortgage Debt[/th][th width="24cqi"]Non‑Mortgage Debt[/th][th width="24cqi"]Auto Loans[/th][th width="24cqi"]Credit Cards[/th]
[th width="24cqi"]Student Loans[/th] [td width="24cqi"]2024 (latest available)[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$17.0 T (Equifax trend)[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$12.5 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$4.5 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$1.6 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$1.0 T[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]~$1.0 T[/td] [td width="24cqi"]2025 (June)[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$17.6 T (Equifax trend)[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$12.9 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$4.7 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$1.7 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]~$1.05 T[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]~$1.0 T[/td] [td width="24cqi"]2026 (June)[/td][td width="24cqi"]$18.25 T [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Equifax

https://www.equifax.com/newsroom/al...6-u-s-national-consumer-credit-trends-report/[/td][td width="24cqi"]$13.51 T (74.1% share)[/td][td width="24cqi"]$4.73 T[/td][td width="24cqi"]$1.72 T (+2.9% YoY)[/td][td width="24cqi"]$1.11 T (+3.9% YoY)[/td]
[td width="24cqi"]~$1.0 T[/td]

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Note: 2024 and 2025 figures are interpolated from Equifax trends and prior reports; 2026 figures are from Equifax and NY Fed Q2 2026 data.

Composition in 2026 [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Equifax+1https://www.equifax.com/newsroom/al...6-u-s-national-consumer-credit-trends-report/[/COLOR]​

• Mortgages (incl. HELOCs): $13.51 T (74.1% of total)
• Auto loans/leases: $1.72 T (36.5% of non‑mortgage)
• Student loans: $1.0 T (27.2% of non‑mortgage)
• Credit cards: $1.11 T (24.5% of non‑mortgage)
• Other: ~$0.57 T (11.8% of non‑mortgage)

Trends​

• Growth: Consumer debt has risen steadily since 2019, with mortgages driving most of the increase [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Statista

• https://www.statista.com/chart/19955/household-debt-balance-in-the-united-states/.
• 2024–2026: Year‑over‑year growth of ~2% in 2026, with modest increases in auto loans and credit cards [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]Equifax[/COLOR].
• Delinquency: Aggregate delinquency rate ~4.7% in Q2 2026, slightly improved from prior year [COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.75)]FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of NEW YORK+1[/COLOR].

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Chart Data (2024–2026)​

You can visualize the trend using the following points (trillions USD):
Code[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.6)]Copy

2024: 17.00
2025: 17.60
2026: 18.25

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