MLS Comp Photos WTF!

[ewwalter]

NOW THAT'S FUNNY!

 

[DMZwerg]

What good is the appraiser's ability when so many just kept hitting numbers?

Appraisers have abilities ... but the word can mean a number of things and just having a license does not necessarily make a person a PROFESSIONAL appraiser. Professionals are not "just number hitters".

 

[New Orleans Guy]

The unfortunate truth is BOTH sides are right. Driving a comp is probably a little bit better that seeing just the MLS photos, and YES I know it is a part of our SOW whether we like it or not. Even though MLS photos usually show what we need to see anyway. But no matter how good you do your appraisals, 99.9% of lenders really think we are just an inconvenient but neccesary step in the lending process, a means to an end..... for now. The old no nonsense local bankers who know the good old appraisers and want people they trust telling them the value will be laid off when Chase or another mega bank buys them out soon, then we will be replaced by AVM's or whatever. Eventually they will get better at using computers to "predict" values. That is all we really do is predict. We use history to try to guess the future. Eventually the AVM software will get better, the Google street view will be geocoded within 1' proximity and the photos will be HD quality with different aspects. That is when the guy in India will be assisting in doing appraisals..... for a year or so, then the software won't need him anymore either. Luckily that is some time away so do the best work you can and enjoy the job. We have NO lobby in congress and almost no one really thinks we deserve what we get now. Fees will only drop as the AMC's take over. The AMC's will just say, we have 99% of the work. Take our fees or survive on those 1-2 non lender request you get a month.

Not trying to be negative, I just see the direction we are headed in. I use to be an electronic repair tech, a job that was in great demand since people need things fixed, until they just started making things cheap enough to throw away. What electronic devices in you house would you have repaired now vs. 20 years ago?

 

[Mike Garrett RAA]

My 20 year old RCA 27" pic in a pic tv! Cost me $120 for a new board and should be good for a few more years. My wife wanted to buy a new 32" high def but we were looking at a minimum of $700 for a tv we really don't watch that much. Two people ... 3 tvs.

I believe appraisers will be around for quite some time; however, you are right that much of the work will go to AMCs and the fees will have to be adjusted for most.

 

[DMZwerg]

we will be replaced by AVM's or whatever. Eventually they will get better at using computers to "predict" values. That is all we really do is predict. We use history to try to guess the future. Eventually the AVM software will get better, the Google street view will be geocoded within 1' proximity and the photos will be HD quality with different aspects. That is when the guy in India will be assisting in doing appraisals..... for a year or so, then the software won't need him anymore either.

Nope.

• Computers are NOT unbiased as they are at least as biased as their programs and data input into them is and, if manipulation is allowed, can be even more bias.
• Accurate data is necessary. Bias data (aka relying on people other than disinterested third parties to gather accurate data) creates problems and this will not stop. Procedural errors can also create bad data (aka, not every lender checks the "foreclosure button" when entering comps into MLS, or states "$76" to mean "$76k" when they should enter "$76,000", or types in "2" rather than "2000" square feet. Computer programs can be created to check for accuracy to a limited degree, but only if somebody cares and the difference such errors makes in data is quite significant.
• Computer programs designed to estimate probability and ranges of values can quickly become much less than useful. For example, if the value of a home included probable foreclosure value, probably uninhabitable value, and so on and the statistical probability of each then many areas will create false low readings as the statistics come into play, yet without such the readings will often be false highs due to lack of unbias inspection.
• True AI is mathematically impossible.

You know, machines will replace humans in the workplace. Guess what? It created a need for more highly educated operators ... fewer per machine output, but much more expensive on average to make certain the machines were programmed and operating correctly. Early on it moved to a lower common denominator, but has since risen up again.

Any move towards computers is more indicative of poor quality by a large segment of the "profession" rather than the elimination of need. When banks again become responsible for the quality of the loans the need for competent appraisals will rise again, the failure to move in that direction is a fall worse than the one we just saw. AVMs are the ultimate "deregulation" as it puts the appraised value directly in the hands of the bank seeking to derive it.

 

[Meandering]

Always drive the comps and take photos.

Compare your photos to MLS listing and photo.

Be surprised when the photos don't match.

Sometimes the Realtor or Realtor's secretary attached the wrong picture and sometimes the house has been remodeled or an addition is in process.

Then just the weight of that comparable after you have these additional facts. Including the physical eyeballing of what has gone on with the property since the listing.

Satelite views are good, but how recent are they? and look at the shadows that are cast, what's hidding in there.

Information is power. Gather as much as you can and then make your decisions/adjustments/comments.

Else check the box and collect your $200 dollars.

 

[Webbed Feet]

Bnick is wanting a facial .

:new_bat_angel:

http://www.skincareblog.net/2008/05/20/new-facial-treatment-geisha-bird-poop-facial/

different bird....same idea...

 

[Hamlet]

:new_bat_angel:

http://www.skincareblog.net/2008/05/20/new-facial-treatment-geisha-bird-poop-facial/

different bird....same idea...

Bnick, don't look up if you hear ducks flying over head!

 

[New Orleans Guy]

Nope.
Any move towards computers is more indicative of poor quality by a large segment of the "profession" rather than the elimination of need. When banks again become responsible for the quality of the loans the need for competent appraisals will rise again, the failure to move in that direction is a fall worse than the one we just saw. AVMs are the ultimate "deregulation" as it puts the appraised value directly in the hands of the bank seeking to derive it.

I agree, hopefully they will keep us around for a long time. I like what I do and will continue as long as I can.

 

[Truett Neathery]

Many of us work in areas where the "standard" methods don't work. I would give anything to work where all comps are within 1 mile, 15% of GLA, age, etc., and where the RE broker knows the difference between a Manufactured, a Trailer w/ no wheels and a SFR site-built!