2. if the 2008 appraisal opinion matched the 2008 contract price of $1,499,999. would you hold the same opinion? :icon_idea:
If you're asking me whether I think it's suspect for an appraisal to exactly match the sales price, I'd say no, but it's a more complicated question than it might appear.
Assuming that we both agree that "we aren't that good" and that in a high-value neighborhood with widely varying property types and an (I'm going to make up some numbers) e.g. a 40% wide range of sales prices, no appraiser is going to claim that their "accuracy" is better than say 25% in either direction. So, assuming that the best either you or I or the next guy could do is to come up with a value range of somewhere around $1,100,000-$1,600,000, if holding a contract for $1,499,999 what single point dollar amount do we conclude to? Does the final opinion of value communicate more than a number to the reader? I think it does. Should we consider the practical implications of our appraisal? I think we should, even though there are also reasonable arguments suggesting that we shouldn't.
Different appraisers will have different approaches in how they conclude their final opinion and I can't even say that I use the same approach every time. Some might routinely go for the extreme top, extreme bottom, or exact middle of the range. Others might follow their intuition either high or low but then round to the nearest $100k. Some might think in terms of sending a message by coming in "slightly below sales price", "exactly at sales price", or slightly above sales price.
If my comments indicated that, in this neighborhood, property types were diverse and value ranges were very wide and highly volatile, there's a possibility that I might want to make the point that I did heavily weight the current contract in making my final decision and I might end up at $1,499,999 exactly, thinking that offering an opinion at $1,500,000 might imply that I came up with that precise opinion independently of the contract and that it's just a coincidence the two numbers are so close.
Anyway, yes, I can see how a reasonable appraisal might conclude at $1,499,999 and I can also imagine how an entirely unreasonable appraisal might conclude at $1,499,999. So, bottom line is that I wouldn't rely upon the appraisal amount as the sole piece of evidence as to whether the appraisal or the purchase price was reasonable.
If another appraiser's opinion of value for this property was something like, $1,547,000 or $1,280,000 then I would have concerns about them relying too heavily on one piece of sales data or claiming an unreasonable degree of accuracy.