My prediction on 3.6

[Vermonter]

Ask many appraisers in Tennessee if AI can do what they do.

You think appraisers in TN have detailed knowledge on the capabilities of AI?

 

[Zoe]

You think appraisers in TN have detailed knowledge on the capabilities of AI?

I'll give you example. One street can make a difference in Urban downtown Memphis. I won't bring all the other elements of comparison into the appraisal process. No, I don't think AI can do that. Look at all the elements of comparison in the appraisal process. You are wanting AI to do things only the human brain can do on MV appraisal in some market areas on single family residential.

 

[Zoe]

AI would love to do it, but a census tract in Memphis won't cover the market because of how heterogeneous in values the single family market is on Market value and constantly shifting.

You may be wishing for uniform values but buyers and sellers don't operate on uniform values. The single family residential is most stabilized in a market where all houses are very similar in a homogenous market like a subdivision.

I absolutely believe AI can do it in a very homogeneous market on single family

 

[Zoe]

I still think AI will miss some elements of comparison the human appraiser picks up even in a very homogeneous market due to human interaction and other sources of data in the appraisal process using Market Value as value definition. That person was going bankrupt and needed to sell. That person moved in from a higher priced market and didn't know this market. That person wanted to be by this amenity to the local market.

All is well until the borrower or seller or real estate agent or somebody actually in the market starts complaining and/or filing lawsuits. Then regulators get involved.

 

[glenn walker]

There you have it, Nacho. Not only are you a shill for the AMC's, but you're knowledge of AI is superficial and naive. You best stick to tiddlywinks and leave the adulting to J.

Nacho maybe the future of how AI and Avm sales representatives can sell their products. kudos for his ability to finally get older appraisers focused off the 3.6 and onto the tools being developed to fill it out faster which can both increase the appraisers business volume and increase his income.

If his theories are correct the 3.6 may prove the best thing to ever have been implemented into the residential loan appraisers lifes.

 

[Zoe]

Usually, the **** don't hit the fan until a downturn in the market.

 

[Zoe]

On a Market value appraisal, there are too many elements of comparison that AI can't read. It is like trying to put an elephant in a box on human motivations. Like trying to put all marriages in a box. All marriages are like this. Impossible on market value to put all the elements of comparison in a box in single family residential across a wide region.

Commercial appraisals will get more AI involved because so much emphasis is placed on income cap approach and AI can handle that if AI has the data. Take office, retail, multifamily, etc, ........

if AI is fed the income/expense data, it could almost control a local commercial market but not in all cases like smaller commercial properties on market value appraisal.

 

[Surf Cat]

Like most on this forum, at 23+ years in, I include myself in the camp of serious appraisers and try and do good/supportable work measuring market reaction along with everything else that goes into creating a solid report. The system does not care anymore...the metric is speed, price, then quality...in that order.

IMO, Nacho here sees the big picture in that this is not just about the appraising profession. It's happening everywhere.

To large corporations, speed and cost matter more than craftsmanship. The product just has to be "good enough" to meet the objective which, is making a profit. Sure....AI can make mediocrity easier and faster, but that lowers the incentive to do careful, calculated work....to strive for excellence. The consequence, is a debilitated, disengaged, human workforce.... as they are not rewarded for putting forth an effort garnered from years of education and experience. The devaluation of human judgment as well underway.

I apologize for being a Negative Nancy. But I'm basing my opinion not just on what's happening currently in the appraising profession, but the changes in healthcare which my wife works in as well.

 

[Surf Cat]

The new UAD was in development long before the explosion in AI capabilities.

No wonder! The human developers /designers sure could have used AI's help in the design and flow of the 3.6. The new UAD is a disaster that needs AI to complete it. The developers should let AI redesign the thing so humans can get through it in an expedited manner like the users want. That is..... if the human appraiser is still in the picture.

 

[Surf Cat]

I'll give you example. One street can make a difference in Urban downtown Memphis. I won't bring all the other elements of comparison into the appraisal process. No, I don't think AI can do that.

Oh, yes it will.....AI will calculate a percentage difference between those two streets garnered from all the appraisals done there already in Collateral Underwriter in 2.54 seconds. Will the percentage be the correct percentage? Maybe, maybe not. But it'll be "good enough".