My prediction on 3.6

[nachocheesefries]

Everything is going to AI...do some of the training modules on startups offering software to appraisers and its is obvious. Its pretty cool stuff.

Alamode will cease to exist as they missed the AI train. Aint no body clicking and filling out the new 3.6 for hours when these AI firms can do it automatically for us...too time consuming. Alamode openly admits AI is on the back burner for them.

The crappiest appraisers will excel because they will just fly through the new form and AI integration in about an hour per form/report. Appraiser mills will pop up everywhere because the new 3.6 is a shadow of the former valuation practices we have all used in the past. Its a terrible product but no one cares.

Its taken me a minute to wrap my mind around and investigate the work flows, but this is it for sure.

That's all!

 

[DWiley]

Appraiser mills will pop up everywhere because the new 3.6 is a shadow of the former valuation practices we have all used in the past. Its a terrible product but no one cares.

Help me understand this point of view, as UAD is solely a reporting format. It has nothing to with the STD 1 part of the appraisal process. What exactly do you think UAD 3.6 changes about the development part of an appraisal assignment?

 

[nachocheesefries]

Help me understand this point of view, as UAD is solely a reporting format. It has nothing to with the STD 1 part of the appraisal process. What exactly do you think UAD 3.6 changes about the development part of an appraisal assignment?

Valid point....it doesn't change STD 1, but the new reporting format is going to make it easy for appraisers to fly through the process and many newer appraisers will adopt the AI tools instead of doing the research and important inputs/pairings themselves. Its gonna be a faster and inferior product...fees are going to go down as well because skippy and his staff are gonna be cranking them out. This is already happening. The appraiser doesn't even have to inspect with 3.6...can send someone out with an ipad/LiDar and sign off. How does a trainee even learn in the AI environment when the machine is doing all the important leg work for them? Its not a matter of if this is happening anymore. Its here...right now.

Imagine appraisers who have only been at it, say under 10 years. Appraisal quality will go down substantially because they are not going to be mentally absorbing market data during the process in leu of letting the machine do it for them. AI is going to make the adjustments, fill out the grid, import site sketches, contract section, etc., in 3-5 minutes...I saw it today on demo. Absolutely stunning. A little cleanup here and there, reconciliation, and BOOM, report is finished. Alamode competitors are not charring extra for analytics, sketcher programs, etc., its all included in the AI package.

Skippy is gonna be churning and burning and the final product is going to be just good enough. IMO, appraisers staying with alamode and adopting their slow manual process are going to be shut out/burnt out quickly. Alamode system is like using a type writer to fill out the form (data set). As an alamode customer for 20+ years, I can't believe how far behind the eight ball they have put their loyal customers. This is a monumental shift in work flows for residential appraisers and anyone not researching and learning how to use the new tech that is already on the market, are going to be left behind very quickly...like by first quarter 2027. Why would Alamode think appraisers were just going to willingly accept spending three additional hours per report filling out a tedious eye straining form when competitors offer software that is filling out out 95% of it for you,, in 3-5 minutes? The new tech is super easy to use. It scans in your order info, public records, csv file for sales grid, gonna have Lidar integration and talk to text from field notes directly into the form by the end of the year. It is wild.

I imagine AI is going to be pulling comps by the end of 2027. If the appraiser doesn't like the selected comps, he/she is going to request different or more comps from the system...its going to be a lighting speed process for those who adopt.

 

[J Grant]

If the machine/computer does everything, including determining the adjustments and, "pulling comps " (selecting the comps), then it would be an AVM, and not an appraisal.

 

[RCA]

Idiots. If AI is really going to take control, it will use mathematics - and that means all comps will result in the same adjusted sales price. Choosing comps will probably be straightforward: Choose the most similar comps that also, in combination, cover the same features as the subject, with the option of letting the user select whatever comp (maybe 1 or 2) he wants to see the adjustments for. Using MARS and RCA, the AI will be able to take in 1000+ comps, if available, and adjust them all to the same value. It then is just a question of choosing which comps to display in the Sales Grid, not that it will make any difference to value conclusion.

The science of of determining latent variables and adjusting for them needs to be developed (which I am working on) - but in any case how latent variables are chosen and adjusted for does not impact the value conclusion

Valuation Engineer Journal

journal.valuation-engineer.com

The limiting factor in all appraisals is the appraiser's skill and intelligence. That is the GIGANTIC limitation. AI can help educate appraisers - but only to the extent of their inborn intelligence. That is the Catch-22.

The best most residential appraisers can do is read Henry Harrison books, cross their fingers, and hope for the best.

 

[Bobby Bucks]

The business is changing, some just won’t accept change. Do not be influenced by the unbelievers, 3.6 is revolutionizing the industry, don’t get left behind. I’m signed up for the next Buzz 3.6 convention in the conference room of the Motel 6 on the frontage road at the Vegas airport. Coffee is $1 a cup, horse bread is complimentary.

 

[Vermonter]

If the machine/computer does everything, including determining the adjustments and, "pulling comps " (selecting the comps), then it would be an AVM, and not an appraisal.

Which makes ZERO difference to the end user

 

[Tom D]

AI will make you stupid & lazy. Then it will all come tumbling down when they catch AI making up lies, which it already has been caught doing to protect itself.
Zero difference to the end user, until the end comes down on their head with financial ruins.

 

[chad hampton]

This new system is definitely taylor made for the churn and burn crowd. The days of taking a few hours then going back to re-read your report because you wanted accuracy and gave a damn about what you were sending out are over.

The snake oil crowd tries to weasel their way out of this by saying stupid **** like - well, the appraiser still needs to understand and agree with the methodology the software programs use to determine adjustments, comp selection, etc, etc., and the appraiser is still responsible for everything in their report. But that's living in fantasy land. Not how things are in the real world. If you choose to pay for these services, you aren't going to go back and do double the work to see if you agree. You do it one way or the other.

 

[Vermonter]

Zero difference to the end user, until the end comes down on their head with financial ruins.

And having an appraisal instead of an AVM would matter how exactly?

You don't think AVM providers will have insurance like appraisers?