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Newbie question: How do you come up with adjustments?

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Ok, at first learn all you can by doing it the way they do it.

I remember your predicament when I first started.

Its hard to make those adjustments for the first time. I made mine about 22 years ago and can remember asking so many questions as I struggled with the process of emotionally involving myself in the valuation process.

Best bet is to listen close. Hopefully you started with a decent appraiser.

Don't take it too seriously right now because your new.

If you have some adjustment questions, answer most quickly by pulling similar appraisals in your office of similar type properties.

You don't have a lot of time to come in here and have us hold your hand.

So, pull similar files and ask questions in your office.

Hopefully they are giving you some cake appraisals at first.

Once you start extracting your land values from your comps you can then get a handle on living area size adjustments.

Ex. you pull the land value out of your comp and are left with (ie ex. $100 psf) of living area.

You may adjust that at $50 a sf ....

Just try to keep your age, room count, location as similar as possible ....


Thanks David, for your advice in your posts. I do have a lot to learn and need to take it step by step. I guess it's with everything, the more experience you have a hard work you put into it, the more confident you are with the process.

I'm just taking it one day at a time.
 
Wow! That is a lot of valuable information that I don't fully understand at this point. I'm sure I will though. I will try your method out. Thanks very much.

I know that some residential appraisers are already using Excel worksheets for their 1004MC analyses. If there was some interest in it, I could do up an adjustments grid worksheet that used the same download formats. That way you guys could skip the data entry part and just plug in the sales with a copy/paste function.

The appraiser would be able to identify each of their comparables in their 1004MC download, copy and paste them into this other worksheet and work the variables. Or run a separate download with just your qualified sales data and paste that in. Add that worksheet as an additional page to your 1004mc worksheet files.

That process would take you maybe 3 minutes to get the data into the worksheet and maybe 5-10 more minutes at the outside to develop your adjustments. Make reference to that analysis in your boilerplate and if anyone were to challenge you (which I doubt) you could send them the file and let them test those factors out for themselves.

Doing sensitivity analysis this way is a little more time consuming than using the regression analysis, but it's a lot easier for most appraisers to learn and understand.

Personally, I see so few real "paired sales" out in the real world that I don't consider it a viable method in most assignments. Our boilerplated assertions notwithstanding.

Even if someone was going to rely on "the list", this would be one way to develop and maintain that adjustment list in a dynamic market. Maybe run it a couple times a year to keep your finger on the pulse of your market area.
 
"Yes Virginia, There Are Match Pairs", though it can be hard to see when you're starting out.

Data:

Start with a homogeneous data set. Look at many many sales or within the same subdivision, or the same complex (including rent rolls). The more data the better. Comb though the MLS (go back in time). Look up all of the past and recent transactions listed by the Assessor. Plot and label this data out on a map. In table or on the map, list the KEY economic characteristics like square footage, beds + baths, views, YOC, # of garage spaces, basement, no basement, finished basement, condition, net sale price, $/sf, and date of sale, etc.

The Analysis:

The marketplace isn't random. Just like in nature, the marketplace creates patterns based on symmetry, path of least resistance, and disturbances.

As you go through this you may start to notice ones that are very similiar but only slight different. Break apart the difference based on 1) total dollar difference, 2) $/sf difference, and 3) percentage difference.

Sometimes two sales are fairly similar but have two variables that are different. You can adjust one of the variables. For example you can adjust up/down for market conditions or you can add/subtract for the garage. You now have synthetically created a reasonably similar match-pair.

Sub-Adjustments to Adjustments:

Remember that the adjustments that you extract are affected by the other appraisal models, e.g., physical depreciation, functional depreciation, external obsolescence, cost-push inflation, fluctuating gross rent multipliers, vacancy rates, etc, etc. The can provide a basis of sub-adjustments. Terrible markets have external obsolescence. In office buildings/condos, I was routinely using a tenant improvement finish cost to make adjustments and then knocking off 25% external obsolescence found by extraction to that cost adjustment. It appears to reconcile near match-pairs appropriately.

As another example, a newly constructed residential condominium buildings in my area may command $20,000/floor level difference and about $30,000 for a garage space; these depreciate and it should reasonably reconcile with, in my area, with an older condo building's $2,000/floor level and $10,000 garage space.

More Analysis:

Familiarize yourself with cost books. Does that $30,000 garage space extracted from comps make sense when replicated in a mini-cost approach? Does the rate of depreciation between the $30,000 and $20,000 garage space make sense? Does the value of the extracted $10,000 garage space make sense? These then become additional tools to make adjustments and double-check the reasonablity of your adjustments.

Familiarize yourself with vacant land values in your many neighborhoods, districts, and sub-markets. You can "pick" up that garage and drop it in a higher or lower land value neighborhood.

Bit More Analysis:

Next start looking for other patterns. MS Excel's graphing is very convenient and once graphed you can easily drag the columns to display the independent variable (X-axis) that may be explaining dependent variable (Y-axis). Appraisal is preoccupied with making the dependent variable Value or Value per square foot. It doesn't always have to be on the value variable, though. Because we started out with a fairly homogeneous data set, you can do a simple statistically valid linear regression analysis.

Tad Advanced Analysis:

All of the appraisal models allow for cross extraction. A rent comp can be compared to a similar sale comp to determine a cap rate or GRM. If an old garage from a third comp rents for $75/month, the capitalized rent of $900/year x 9 GRM, equals a garage's value of $8100. It makes sense. That reconciles in alignment with the $10,000 as found by the sales comparison extraction in the mature central Denver market.

Reasonability and Reconciliation:

File your research for future reference. But bear in mind that it is a snapshot in a point in time. 2009's numbers may not relate in a 2013 market. The pre-established adjustment lists lose track of reality because they were extracted too long ago, and it'd be wrong to apply, for example, a $30,000 garage adjustment to an old building, and vice versa. Likewise, a middling $20,000 garage adjustment is just as incorrect when applied to both the older building or to the newer building.

Have fun!
 
I know that some residential appraisers are already using Excel worksheets for their 1004MC analyses. If there was some interest in it, I could do up an adjustments grid worksheet that used the same download formats. That way you guys could skip the data entry part and just plug in the sales with a copy/paste function.

I was just thinking it would be nice to have an Excel worksheet like this. So, I would be very interested in such a worksheet. If you do make one, please let me know.
 
I know that some residential appraisers are already using Excel worksheets for their 1004MC analyses. If there was some interest in it, I could do up an adjustments grid worksheet that used the same download formats. That way you guys could skip the data entry part and just plug in the sales with a copy/paste function.

The appraiser would be able to identify each of their comparables in their 1004MC download, copy and paste them into this other worksheet and work the variables. Or run a separate download with just your qualified sales data and paste that in. Add that worksheet as an additional page to your 1004mc worksheet files.

That process would take you maybe 3 minutes to get the data into the worksheet and maybe 5-10 more minutes at the outside to develop your adjustments. Make reference to that analysis in your boilerplate and if anyone were to challenge you (which I doubt) you could send them the file and let them test those factors out for themselves.

Doing sensitivity analysis this way is a little more time consuming than using the regression analysis, but it's a lot easier for most appraisers to learn and understand.

Personally, I see so few real "paired sales" out in the real world that I don't consider it a viable method in most assignments. Our boilerplated assertions notwithstanding.

Even if someone was going to rely on "the list", this would be one way to develop and maintain that adjustment list in a dynamic market. Maybe run it a couple times a year to keep your finger on the pulse of your market area.

I'd be interested in seeing something like that.woohoo
 
Print George's analyses post...frame it...a nice one cause you'll need it to last a long time. If you are that new then just keep soaking up everything you can as much as you can. There is no substitute for experience and that nicely framed guide will make more sense every day. It can take years to become even dangerous at this job. Your market perception, data refinement and tool box will grow with experience. Modeling your comparison analyses the way George describes will help keep you on a credible trajectory.

There is a ton to learn and there it can be just as overwhelming after 10 years as it is in the first. The whole thing boils down to - I think it's worth $zzz BECAUSE:_______. <blank should contain common sense, logical arguments supported by data and whatever tools applied to it. Execution not-withstanding, it's usually pretty hard to lie to yourself. First convince yourself, then convince the reader you are right...for anything you say including adjustments. Your ultimate responsibility is to provide a CREDIBLE opinion.
 
I put one together for you guys that uses the same download formats as the 1004MC worksheet I built and distributed. If you guys PM me your email addresses I'll send you a copy and you can play around with it.

If you don't have 1004MC formats set up in your MLS software you can always enter in the details on your sales manually. (GLA, Lot Area, BdRms, Baths, Dates of sale). If you use different 1004MC downloads then send me a copy of what you're using and I can tweak my programming to fit.
 
You might feel like slitting your wrists after contemplating LeasedFee's dissertation. If you get that impulse, just go back & read it later along with a review of other posts.

In the mean time, keep it simple:) Find a bunch of substantially similar sales in a tract development, say 10+ & plug in their sales prices into a spread sheet. Now, pick one as the subject & pretend you are appraising it. Apply SF adjustments at, say, $5 increments to the other sales. Start low.

Look at the adjusted sales prices. Do they generally narrow? If so, keep increasing the adjustment until they start to diverge. At that point you have developed a SF adjustment, suitable for that neighborhood & that style & quality of home & at that point in time. Nothing is perfect or lasts forever.

As you apply the adjustments to the individual sales prices you will eventually figure out what $/SF adjustment explains most of the variance. When you figure out what $/sf adjustment best "explains" the price variance, call it a day.
 
For info, I've already sent a couple of these out, so if anyone else wants to try it out they can just send me a PM.
 
I don't want JSmith43 or our poster to slit their wrists. You can't possibly do this on every assignment. I maintain though that adjustments should be based on an economic logic versus a wild guess. This real world knowledge is something you build-up over years.

There was a poster on the forum a couple of weeks ago who was challenged about their basement adjustment in a neighborhood without basements. He or she tried the "Appraiser judgment" argument and the under-writer/reviewer called their bluff, and now the appraiser didn't know what to do. Life would have been much easier if the appraiser had supported his or her adjustment at the get-go or upon being questioned had been able to quickly pull some comp data from a manila folder, and immediately demonstrated his or her professional expertise.

Early in my career I did a land appraisal and it was quite embarrassing when my client, an eminent domain attorney, saw three or four match-pair relationships in my own data that I hadn't bothered to see. Fortunately that was before the hearing, but needless to say that attorney was never going to call me again.
 
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