Oil up $11 today, Dow down 400 Points.

[Metamorphic]

Mine is a 74, welded, not riveted.

;^)

Dave...

M1A Scout Model, Case and a half of Surplus, a Dillon, and about 20,000 pistol primers.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

M1A Scout Model, Case and a half of Surplus, a Dillon, and about 20,000 pistol primers.

I shoot a bean flip left handed because I am such a good shot, I tear up too much meat otherwise....

Schofield # 3 - .44 Russian

 

[Bama Bayou]

Dot com bust: "don't worry that they don't make money yet, they are the future of the economy. This is different".

Real estate bust: "don't worry that prices have doubled in four years, they ain't making any more of it. This time it's different".

Coming oil bust: "don't worry that prices have doubled in the last year, they ain't making any more of it. This time it's different".

It's never different.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

This time it's different". It's never different.

Yer right. this ain't the end of the world. For one thing it will force efficiencies upon energy consuming countries and have a far larger impact upon carbon dioxide emissions than jawboning over Kyota. Look for 40 mpg autos in the near future and fleets of large SUVs and Trucks will become obsolete. They will also become cheap. I am keeping my eye peeled for an Avalanche when they get into the low teens with low miles. IF I save $10,000 on a vehicle, I can buy a lot of gas.
As my nephew - a starving Realtor-broker - said. Grandad walked to town to get groceries. I don't guess it would hurt me any worse than him. It was over three miles. Point.
Driving scooters, motorcycles, walking. Why not? I thought in the mid 80s when the economy saw dropping prices that it couldn't last. The surprise was that low prices lasted for more than 15 years. But we didn't recognize it as the windfall that it was. Now we are set to see a run up in price, serious changes in our driving habits will happen. Hopefully, some building codes will now require R-55 in the ceilings and R-33 in the walls, geothermal heatpumps, super efficient water heaters and appliances, etc. will come on line. We can conserve a lot of the problem away. Cheap energy allows us to waste it.
Think how energy efficient LEDs etc were supposed to be...so we created a TV with tens of thousands of them which consumes more electricity than ever before. That's we way we work it seems. From 27 mpg in the mid 80's our gas mileage has dropped by 30%. It will come back. And that will pressure the price of oil down.

Yes, oil is slowly depleting but time will correct that. What we really need is a big shot like Warren Buffet to offer a $10 billion dollar award for an affordable superconducting battery that weighs under 100 lb. One that could run a house for 3 days or a car for 300 miles and be recharged from an electrical station in 20 minutes. Can you imagine the almost instantaneous destruction of the internal combustion engine that would occur?

 

[Lloyd Bonafide]

Oil up $11 today, Dow down 400 Points.

Yep - everything is coming together nicely. m2:

All we need now is 30 year mortgage rates at 8% and we'll really be in business. Maybe globalization of the economy wasn't such a good idea after all.

Hopefully, the bubble will burst in oil prices, otherwise the recession might last about 5-10 years.

 

[Cigar]

Terrel:

Have you heard of Lindsey Williams? He appears to be a nut, but a lot he says makes sense. I found this video of a lecture very interesting and certainly worth the hour and a half it takes to watch it, but don't even go there until you can set aside an hour and a half, and he starts slow but gets much better as he goes. He is apparently a one issue guy, and one issue guys are almost invariably nuts, and of course he's selling books.

His theories on oil supplies should interest you in particular.

 

[Metamorphic]

Dot com bust: "don't worry that they don't make money yet, they are the future of the economy. This is different".

Real estate bust: "don't worry that prices have doubled in four years, they ain't making any more of it. This time it's different".

Coming oil bust: "don't worry that prices have doubled in the last year, they ain't making any more of it. This time it's different".

It's never different.

You're right, but here's the thing to remember.

The price of gas at the pump has gone up 50% in the last 6-7 months. But there's no fundamental basis for this rise. There's not twice as many cars burning twice as much fuel that entered the road in the last 6 months. There hasent been a 50% reduction in the supply or processing capacity. IOW there's no tangible structural reason for a sudden increase in prices. All the run up in prices in excess of a the normal gradual price increase you should expect is a result of politics and investor speculation. Especially here, everyone should be familiar with the concept of politics and investor pressure inflating values wildly.

In fact, some of the speculators driving up oil prices are probably the same people that drove up housing prices and then got scared off, and they're probably the same ones that drove up dot.com prices and then got scared off. Its become such a clear pattern you can almost see the investment money fleeing from one sector to another. I bet there's a whole heard of baby boomer, retirement age suckers out there right now saying "the only way I can afford to put fuel in my diesel pusher, so I can drive down to Arizona to fix up that investment condo I bought in '05 so I can sell it for half of what I paid for it, using what was left the fortune in gettingbusy.com stock I owned before the crash is to buy invest in Exxon."

They say the cure for high prices, is high prices. Buy any objective measure of supply and demand the current oil price is higher than it should be based on Supply and Demand economics. But none the less, people will adapt, they will figure out how to use less, and that WILL be a fundamental change in the balance of supply and demand...one that will drop, if not crash prices.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

One factor in the stock market and in the oil markets (commodities in general) is a small shortage will produce a large displacement. Once over-supply begins, the reverse holds true. That is why once new houses reached a level in excess of what the market is willing to hold for sale....the rush to the exits occurred.

The commodities markets, via hedging strategies, instead of reducing volatility has increased it. Wild price swings prove that futures trading is a farce and it serves no purpose beyond increasing speculation. The solution is easy. Require 50% margins in hedge bets and require a buyer to actually take possession of the oil..ie.-start paying for storage costs. Further, on no given day should more than 10% of the world's oil be bought and sold. It was reported recently that 80% of the corn crop was traded in a single day. That is an inrrational impossibility and should not be allowed.

 

[SpartanAG]

Perhaps 60 percent of today’s oil price is pure speculation http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3252.shtml
More on the real reason behind high oil prices http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3325.shtml
The great oil swindle: How much did the Fed really know? http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3326.shtml
McCain defends 'Enron loophole’ http://onlinejournal.com/artman/publish/article_3326.shtml

 

[Charles West]

Dated 06/09/08 - 2 yr. Treasuries up over 30% today, good omen for the dollar to appreciate and send oil and gold into a tailspin. Don't get too happy though as gas is going to stay expensive, we just need to make more income to cover it.