Order Volume

[Alsie35]

Still busy in West TX

As always, two appraisers in the same market area can get radically different volume results because, in addition to the obvious economic factors, appraiser volume is also largely driven by the particular client base that has been assembled and nurtured over many, many years and decades.

 

[NC Appraising]

I have been a certified residential appraiser for over 20 years and work has never been this sparse. Order volume is at a crawl in recent weeks and I am just curious if anyone else is as worried as I am.

Do this every Wednesday search "mortgage applications" then hit the new tab. This will tell you if you are going to be busy or slow for the next week or so.

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 6.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 29, 2023.

www.mba.org

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 6.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 11 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 6 percent compared with the previous week and was 22 percent lower than the same week one year ago.



I am pretty much out of the biz, but I still get request. 95% of my requests are for FHA...

I realize the volume is low and this is the main reason, but...

I have to wonder how much work are we REALLY losing to hybrids, desktops, waivers and AVMs with property inspections for Conventional orders? In my area, the big AMCs (the GSE picked) are controlling most of the market for non-traditional orders. This means most are staff or are the same small pool of appraisers doing most of the non-traditional work.

Many have posted data on just one part of the "new system". I would like to see data on all of the orders: 1004 traditional, hybrids, and avms with property inspections, AVMs and waivers.

Just do not given us the data on waivers.....

 

[Surf Cat]

Housing Groups Tell Fed to Stop Raising Interest Rates

NAR and two other major housing players send a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, saying further rate increases could invite a recession.

www.nar.realtor

 

[Fernando]

Housing Groups Tell Fed to Stop Raising Interest Rates

NAR and two other major housing players send a letter to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, saying further rate increases could invite a recession.

www.nar.realtor

The rate hikes must be hurting the first time buyers.
As mentioned in my other post, I don't see the rate increasing is affecting the real estate values in my town.
In past month, sales have sold over list price.

 

[Zoe]

https://money.usnews.com/loans/mortgages/mortgage-rate-forecast#:~:text=All%20told%2C%20Fannie%20Mae%20predicts%20mortgage%20rates%20will,average%206.6%25%20in%202023%20and%206.3%25%20in%202024.

Many people here are refinancing even at the current rates.

 

[Zoe]

That article I posted is good article. Read it. Mortgage rates are already headed down on long term mortgage. Remember inverse relationship to treasury bills and long term treasury bonds and long term mortgages.

Banks trade long term treasury bonds like daily. The relationship is inverse to mortgage rates. As long term bond rates go higher, long term mortgage rates go lower.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

o don't expect much improvement in 2024, maybe by 2025 things will improve with different policy decisions implemented.

Some are saying this recession will begin in earnest later this year or next and not to expect improvement until after 2025. However, REOs will be the new Refi's if that is the case. Face it. Prices are the worst on the affordability scale for a long time. Yes, 2008 was slow, but it picked up with REO work but the "market" did not improve for 3 years.

 

[Fernando]

Some are saying this recession will begin in earnest later this year or next and not to expect improvement until after 2025. However, REOs will be the new Refi's if that is the cast. Face it. Prices are the worst on the affordability scale for a long time. Yes, 2008 was slow, but it picked up with REO work but the "market" did not improve for 3 years.

Hard to predict when recession will or if occurs.
I check my Cruise prices and availability and I see people are still buying the cabins. People are still vacationing like it's 1999.

 

[Zoe]

Sorry, could not see the references. Fannie is yellow lines, Wells Fargo is purple line. Mortgage Bankers Association is Green line.

 

[Zoe]

Sorry, could not see the references. Fannie is yellow lines, Wells Fargo is purple line. Mortgage Bankers Association is Green line.