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Paired sales.

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Between 2004 and 2008, I personally did well over 500 reviews for (mostly) 3-clients (and my firm did another 250 reviews or so): A larger mortgage banker, a credit union, and a bank. In the San Francisco Area, I was effectively the bank's review department for 9-counties (and, yes, I have appraised in each county and had full MLS access to all areas I reviewed within). About half of these were field reviews; the remainder were desk. Almost all were pre-closing; some were post-origination. Most of the loans originated outside of the entity by independent mortgage brokers who hired their own appraisers.

None of these assignments were completed on the GSE review forms. I met with each client and wrote the SOW for their intended use to fit their requirements. Their requirements were simple:
A. Tell us about the quality of the work you are reviewing. If we get poor quality from the same source frequently, we want to know (the bank would stop taking loans from mortgage brokers who continually had issues). Some repeat offender appraisers were put on a "must review list" which effectively eliminated their opportunity to do business with these sources.
B. Tell us if you think the value is reasonable and supported. We don't expect these reports to be written as if you had done them, and we aren't looking for the "ideal" appraisal. If the quality is acceptable (the first step), then what we want to know is if we can rely on the value to make a lending decision.
C. If the appraisal is so poor that you cannot determine your own review value, then tell us that and we'll order another appraisal.

For two of the entities, the "poor quality/value not supported" ratio was somewhere between 13-18% (they tracked it and that rate was consistent with their other review sources).
For one of the entities, the rate was closer to 40% (for reasons I'll explain below... which are interesting).

The review process for them was meaningful and it wasn't a witch hunt. The bank executive would tell me (paraphrased),
Denis, everyone has a bad day, including appraisers. But if the appraiser does a bad report on that bad day and its in a loan package we are evaluating, we want the review process to catch it. The appraiser who has a bad day might be one of our best appraisers around. We are not worried about that appraiser, only the report on that bad day. Others, if we see a pattern, we want to know; those (and their sources) are not the ones we want to have a business relationship with. And, if you see something you think is fraudulent, bring that to our attention.

This was the attitude of the clients and it was the purpose/intended use of the report. That attitude created the environment in which the review was completed. I was approached by other clients who just wanted a rubber stamp (and effectively told me so). Others didn't tell me so, and when I disagreed with a report, they no longer used my appraisal review services (and I'm glad). I'm not trying to imply that I'm an ethical paragon (I'd like to think I'm as ethical as my peers), but I didn't have to be an ethical paragon with these clients because their expectations and requirements were ethical from the get-go.

While there are poor quality reviewer appraisers, IMHO, it requires two to make a poor quality review: the reviewer and the client whose expectations/requirements encourage poor quality reviews (be that a rubber stamp on an unsupported value or be that a witch hunt to push-back a loan with the appraisal as the reason for that push-back).
I agree with many that there is probably a new generation of review appraisers who think that any appraisal has shortfalls (I would agree.. no appraisal is perfect and certainly not mine) and, therefore, all appraisals can be rated "poor" or do not credibly support their value. I underscore credibly because (based on some of the posts I've read here) many appraisal reviews cite incredible reasons for challenging the credibility of the report under review.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Although I'm against unnecessary regulation (and I find the majority of regulation unnecessary), I would be 100% in support of requiring that any appraisal review that is used to impugn the integrity of an appraiser to be delivered to that appraiser in its complete submission: this includes the SOW, the analysis, the conclusion, and the review appraiser's name. In some review situations, the original appraisal report is being held to an unreasonable standard. All I ask is that the review appraisal which makes such a determination be held to a reasonable standard, with the first step being disclosure to the alleged violator (the original appraisal/appraiser).

The concept of an appraisal review is very common sense and should not be eliminated. Unfortunately, the way it is used is leading to abuse. Do not throw out the baby with the bath water. Keep the baby, get rid of the dirty water reviewers.



Now, the rest of the story where I was at 40% rejection rate.
One of my clients was a credit union (one of the largest in California). This CU would specialize in offering 2nds. It outsourced its origination function to a mortgage banker (MB). The MB set up a deal with a large Savings & Loan (who is no longer in business) to provide 2nds on deals where the S&L originated the loan. The majority of the rejections I saw was from this S&L's staff appraisers, and almost always had to do with value (as opposed to a poorly written report). Since the CU was loaning, say, the last 15-20% on what was already an 80% 1st lien (so, my client was loaning 95-100% after the first 80%), there was very little (or any) margin for error.
The MB was furious that our rejection rate was so high, and we had a big pow-wow over the issue; they threatened to find another review company. I went back to the CU, spoke with its CEO and ask him if he wanted to transition to another review company. He said no, the MB can either live with it or find another source for its 2nds, and told me not to change a thing.
As a rule, I was able to speak directly with the originating appraiser who completed the appraisal I was reviewing. The S&L would not allow its appraisers to speak with me, so when I had a question on one if its appraisals, I could not verify anything with the original staff appraiser (they also used contract appraisers; those non-employees I could speak to).
On one deal, however, I not only received the original report but also the S&L's internal review report. And, this is the end of the story....
The original report appraised a property at $950k, which was fully supported (it was a well written report). However, at $950k, the deal would not qualify for a 2nd. The S&L's internal review department then did a review and valued the property at $1,000,000. The only reason it did that was so the new collateral value would allow the borrowers to qualify for the 2nd (don't ask me how I figured this out... you'll have to trust that I did).

This S&L was heralded as being a visionary in loan products and introduced many types of exotic loans into the market place in the early 2000s. They also had a good reputation in regard to their collateral valuation process. And I'm sure their reputation was warranted... when it came to protecting their 80% lien. But they had no problem playing loose with collateral values when the risk was going to be absorbed by someone else (my client, the 2nd lien holder). And, one of the mechanisms they used to do that was their review function.

(None of the above I posted is new... I've posted about this issue and similar issues over the years when they occured).
 
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Terrel-

I do not dispute the existence of anchor bias, and will readily admit that I have one. And, yes, I do my best to put it aside.

In regard to a purchase, if the transaction is arms-length and the buyer/seller are informed, chances are it is (by definition) the market value of a property. Our job as an appraiser is to provide our opinion of market value. An existing contract may present an "anchor", but I would submit that a competent appraiser (with all the elements competency implies) can sever the tie to that anchor when the purchase contract is not consistent with market value. Since the expectation of a market sale is that it is selling at a market price, when an appraisal opines a different opinion, that appraisal should be prepared to support its difference using (a) sound reasoning and data, and (b) common sense.
It isn't hard to opine a different value when all the comps point to a market value, say, that is less than the purchase price. Sound reasoning and data will support such an opinion.
It becomes a little more difficult to opine a different value when the contract price is supported by the comparables. That's where common sense comes in (IMO). Yes, a contract price can still be unsupported even if the best comparables selected provide an adjusted range that supports the contract. In this case (and, IMO), the data and rationale should be overwhelming so that there is no common sense question of, "why is the appraisal report's value more credible than the contract price?"

As to reviews, again, there is always one step and usually a second step:
First Step: What is the quality of the report?
Second Step: What is the review appraiser's opinion of value?

Step one must be completed in the context of the original report's SOW.
Step two may be completed with a different SOW, but typically is consistent with the original report's SOW.

Since the credibility of the report is measured by its results, and one significant result of an appraisal is an opinion of market value (the other, equally significant IMO but many times not considered is the physical description/characteristics of the subject property to determine if it meets the lending requirements from the start; if not, then the value is irrelevant as a practical matter), it seems axiomatic that the opinion of market value (the value) creates an anchor in which the context of the review takes place. Does this anchoring create an unreasonable bias? IMO, no.

So, while I agree that a sales contract or a review of an appraisal with its concluded value presents an anchor, I don't think that anchor is unreasonable given the context of the process we are discussing: (a) provide an opinion of market value on a property, or (b) provide an opinion of the quality of another's work and one's own opinion of value on a property.

The review appraisal process is abused. Of this we can agree. Maybe we cannot agree that a review can be a useful tool. I think that some simple steps (like transparency of the review) can curb the abuses and improve the process.

Finally, as you put it, we are not talking about rocket surgery here. Real estate is an imperfect market and there is likely more often than not to be disagreement on a precise value point by competent valuators in all but a few, rare instances.
But, again, by definition, the imperfections of the market explicitly result in what can be best described as a "reasonable value range" rather than a "precise-point" value (although that is what our opinion is typically expressed as; a point).
The anchor bias, which exists, can be managed and the results can be credible. If managed properly, its existence does not create a faulty value or faulty valuation process.
 
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An existing contract may present an "anchor", but I would submit that a competent appraiser (with all the elements competency implies) can sever the tie to that anchor when the purchase contract is not consistent with market value.
That is a readily visible anchor. I don't think it is nearly as effective as an anchor as say the historical sales price, or our own biases from say valuing a recent home that is similar. In fact, that is how/why we develop these biases that determine the quality of our "judgment". Someone said, "Good judgment" comes from making bad judgments. Hopefully we learn. But to learn, we must recognize the bias exists. I hear too many say that they are not biased. I hope that is not true and suspect that it isn't. Managing the bias is the path to a better appraiser.
 
Many good posts, in this thread!

We did get away a bit from the OP's query, and of course USPAP does not state paired sales must be used...LSI needs to review their reviewer.

Re, many times paired sales alone are not sufficient, though yes, the comps on the grid themselves, with reasonable adjustments, are the "paired sales", and rank them per Mich CG or call it sensitivity analysis etc.

If you have been appraising a number of years in an area, it is possible to refer to past appraisals and past paired sales analysis as support for today's adjusmtents. I might write something like this: "Adjustments are supported by the comparables on the grid and their contributory value of amenities ranked from most weight to least weight, as well as market analysis of available data, and supported by past paired sales analysis from prior makret area luxury home appraisals done over the past 10 years.".

If that, or any other reasonable explanation for your adjustments is not good enough for your client, then you need another client. Either a report works in its entirety, the market analysis, the trends, the sales and listings on the report, and then the adjustments, it all works together. to develop a cedible and supported value, or it does not.

In a credible and well researched report, If a reviewer is going to target any area of the report, such as an adjustment, or a cost approach figure, and make you "prove" that it is 100% accurate , that is probably going to be impossible to do, because, well, it is impossible to do. One can use statistical regression analysis which looks impressive, but who has the tools to do that, and who would want to rely on it ?

A credible and supportable value is the goal of an appraisal, not 100% mathmatical "accuracy. " It would be hard to tell if LSI is instructing their reviewer to ask for this, or the reviewer is just doing it to make themselves look good, for finding "something" in an otherwise well researched report.
 
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Terrel, I support real reviews, done by a quality minded, trained reviewer who is unbaised. But the kind of "reviews" we are seeing now, originated by AMC staff or contract appraisers, where the reviewer is given a list of stips that they apply generically to every report, is detrimental and yes, can do more harm than good.
 
I understand the need for review appraisals. I only questions certain aspects of what they are doing and why they are picking apart certain aspects of the (my) appraisal that doesn't make any sense IMHO. For example:
I recently did another appraisal where the sales price of the home was X. The home was really nice..all the upgrades, custom features, beautiful view, etc..I wouldn't be surprised if someone purchased the home for that much money, however, I could not validate the sales price based on the sales I had from the prior 12 months (or 24 months). I had 1 comparable that sold for close to the subject's value, and it had an inferior view..after going over sales with similar views like the subject (which were very few) and views like the comparable sale, I came up an adjustment value of Y. So after my adjustments, sale 2 did in fact come out slightly over the sale price of the home, however, it was significantly more then any other sales in the subjects neighborhood...They (the lender and reviewer) want to know why..so I called the realtor (again) and he informed me the home was very nice and the buyers fell in love with the home when they first laid eyes on it...This was not sufficient for the reviewer so he then asked me why the subject was not appraising for the sales price when I had 1 comparable that did validate the sales price. The reason why? Since when was it mandatory appraise a home the contract price just because you have 1 sale that sold with a similar value? He said the lender will not like the fact that there was a comparable that was over the sales price and I still did not appraise the home at the contracted sales price.
This, once again, imho, is bs. I had to go back and forth with this reviewer for 2 weeks on this appraisal because of this 1 sale. I won't say that the sale was an outlier, but it did sell for about 10% more then any other (comparable) home in the neighborhood over the prior 24 months. Sometimes homes just sell for more...there isn't always a reason, they just do..isn't that the reason? It would be great if there was a reason and if all of the homes sold for the exact same amount and they all bracketed each others sales prices, but as I'm sure you all know, this market is goofy. Sometimes the larger, nicer home sells for less then the smaller, inferior home (in this neighborhood, TYPICALLY, the larger newer homes with superior upgrades sell for more...I know, crazy).
Why does everything have to be black and white with these appraisals? HOW can they be black and white, especially when dealing with large, custom, multi-million dollar homes where only a handful sell per year? BTW, Denis, I enjoyed your post. I have a question for you..maybe it's me, but does it seem like some reviewers are trying to turn appraising into 'rocket surgery'? Thanks for continuing this post, I enjoy everyone of your reply's and opinions (and facts..all of you, not just Denis!) Thanks everyone!
 
Terrel, I support real reviews, done by a quality minded, trained reviewer who is unbaised.
I believe in the tooth fairy too... the above is an oxymoron. It is impossible .

nice interview on Charile Rose with Daniel Kahneman tonight, author of Thinking Fast Slow
http://sambacharach.com/bacharachblog/leader/all-decision-makers-should-read-thinking-fast-slow/

His comments on anchor biases was dead on.

To adjust for it you must at least be aware of the bias. If you have no bias, then you don't see the anchor bias and are blinded by it. Reviewing, far more than access to a contract, is a dead bullseye ANCHOR and you have a target and you will either aware or not, either HIT it or NOT HIT it as a proactive, though perhaps subconcious act. It is a magnet. You cannot see the forces but they act anyway.

http://heuristics.behaviouralfinance.net/anchoring/

Of all professions, ours is one of Behavior economics and one of practical application, an applied (non) science of heuritics. Judgments, rules of thumbs, shortcuts in lieu of real math to get at the answer. "Paired Sales" are statistically meaningless, but they are simple short cuts we use to 'support' our (biased) judgments.

PS - Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in Behavior Economics in 2002. It is serious science.
 
Terrel, you have an excellent point, and the wording should have been, " a reviewer trained to put their bias aside". It is not hard to do, as long as one is aware of it.
 
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