Poll: How long and How much?

[Lawrence R.]

Springboarding from Ray Miller's thread (with his permission)...

When do you think the housing market will make a turn and what do you think the fees will be for a standard 1004 style appraisal at that time?

Multiple choice allowed to condense into one poll, but try to only use two...one for the date and one for the fee.

 

[The Warrior Monk]

It'll definitely take longer this cycle than last cycle. There are several reasons. One is that in the last cycle, rates went from high to low. This cycle they will likely go from low to high. The other is the cost of energy, which is much higher than during the past cycle. It slows down economic growth and thus the housing market.

Fees will be whatever the market dictates.

 

[Lawrence R.]

I would say that you are right. I am interested to see that most people think the average cost of an appraisal might go up in the future. It hasn't for the past 20 years or so... so what will make that happen?

Anybody care to respond with their rationale?

 

[Claude From NY]

The betting might be that skippy and crew will be a memory by then. After the last cycle we were able to raise fees but that was only after the population had thinned out a bit.

 

[Blueprint]

2010 is the soonest I expect long term stabilization in the housing market. Housing Bill is going to make it worse as a whole.

Appraiser prices will only increase on our own as a result of a lack of supply. In the long term, not anytime soon, it could be possible and could last simply due to the newer college education requirements. In my opinion, it should now be a 4 year degree minimum with a major in RE or the like. Appraising is not what it used to be in so many ways. The education needs to change with the times.

 

[Steve Metz]

I do not think that the housing market will come back for a long time before we see normal growth rates (7-9 years). Wages have to go up and the government and private industry will do every thing in thier power to see that it does not. That is the way it has been for the last 30 years. The middle class is the housing market and they have been systmaticlly destroyed by Wall St and big business. What we have been seeing is Wall St. stripping the middle classes equity via this mess and debt slavery.

The appraisal business is too easy to get into and pays well for the level of barrier to entry. Fees will remain low in the $200 or less level. I see orders for $150 1004's that are broadcast and they only last 5 min or less.

If the barrier to entry were raised to a Masters level 2 year post grad program ( Get rid of the mentor /trainee BS) fees will go up to an average of $400-$500 a 1004 due to lack of supply. With a higher level of education an appraiser would have more to lose if they lost thier license and the work product would be better. Most appraisers out there today if they lost their license would go back to shoveling rocks or folding sweaters at The GAP. They realy have nothing to lose if they turn in bad reports so they put them out fast and cheap.

The government, realtors and the banking industry will make shure that the status quo stays. They do not want honest appraisers standing in the way of thier money making bubble machine. Investors need some kind of protection but they are not going to get it if you look at the last 30 years in this country. The sheep ( Investors, Middle Class) are there to be shorn. Business as usual and please don't spoil our party.

Sorry to sound off but just been looking at the economics of this business and finding more profitable work out there with more of a future.

 

[Mike Boyd]

Students cannot learn ethics and morals from a book. Nor can they be legislated. All a masters degree would do is provide fodder for the multinationals in banking and franchising. What grad with a masters degree is going to go to work for a split from an AMC of $150 or less. In fact, you might get smarter skippies where finding their fraudulent activity is more devious and difficult to prosecute. One of the professors at our local community college spent time in prison for his activities during the S&L fiasco! A couple years ago I was hired to consult in a transaction where this same teacher was working in cahoots with a flipper. When he saw that I was representing the other side he literally went and sat in a corner not saying a word.

There will always be thieves and criminals, white collar thugs as well as blue collar bullies.

Take the appraisal ordering function away from the lender and the broker. Do not use AMCs....they should be banned. That will cure 99% of all appraisal problems.

 

[Gregory Beck]

Ok

Students cannot learn ethics and morals from a book. Nor can they be legislated. All a masters degree would do is provide fodder for the multinationals in banking and franchising. What grad with a masters degree is going to go to work for a split from an AMC of $150 or less. In fact, you might get smarter skippies where finding their fraudulent activity is more devious and difficult to prosecute. One of the professors at our local community college spent time in prison for his activities during the S&L fiasco! A couple years ago I was hired to consult in a transaction where this same teacher was working in cahoots with a flipper. When he saw that I was representing the other side he literally went and sat in a corner not saying a word.

There will always be thieves and criminals, white collar thugs as well as blue collar bullies.

Take the appraisal ordering function away from the lender and the broker. Do not use AMCs....they should be banned. That will cure 99% of all appraisal problems.

Then who orders the appraisal?

 

[jay trotta]

Over the past 5 years there is proof that crime pays and therefore the lack of protection for the public, has lost it's niche amongst the voting people. In case no one has noticed, all costs have excelrated over 50% - the greatest opportunity for the Bankers to Lower Your Fee's......preditory pressure has Not been eased at all, it's just comming at You in a different direction.

So, all the news work; the NYC AG's posturing; the FNMA-FREDDIE hoopla; goes unattended, while the only way the political powers see to remedy the problem, is to lay it on te backs of the "Middle Class" one more time, increasing Taxes will prevail and No One can do anything about it.

"Creating a government big enough to give you anything you need, is big enough to Take everything from you" (Pres.Ford...I believe)

 

[Lawrence R.]

"A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have."

Indeed was Gerald Ford, in a speech given to congress in 1974.

I was 6.

6 Months, that is.