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Post wildfire, resale of vacant lots in Altadena

A lot of developers are funded by foreign investors.

Developers don't buy lots because it is near their people. It's a ridiculous idea. They buy because there is profit to be made.
You're the one who made this into an either-or motivation. Not me. I'm not arguing the point that this is an opportunity to make a lot of money. I just made the observation that the mass buying in this area is limited to a few investor entities where the principals were from Asia at some point, whether past or present. And there are no non-Chinese groups among these buyers. Which if those other entities were present they would be the control group for your "its a ridiculous idea" theory.

I wouldn't have even noticed this pattern if I hadn't manually searched every land sale in the zip looking for the financing.
 
Interesting posts - these investors are now the market of buyers for vacant lots in that area - it would be interesting to see what was on the sites BEFORE they were fire-damaged and razed for vacant. From photos that I have seen of the areas, there were a number of funky, interesting older homes - perhaps long-time family homes bought at lower prices 30-plus years ago. The area, when rebuilt with the investor money, likely will be boring, ugly huge new houses or rezoned to townhouses if they can get it passed. The folks who sold the lots were not all Chinese I assume, so one might think a select group of RE agents and buyers contacted the prior owners to purchase the lots.

I disagree with the poster who said developers only go after the $ . Some might operate that way, but others very much want a local region for various reasons. Investors and companies are still comprised of people. People use money to buy things for "feelz" reasons, much as some of you guys dislike that reality. Even professional investors are driven by motives other than strictly return on the $. It might be national pride, or a beautiful area they themselves want to live in one day, or have bragging rights to. It might be strategic - a long game plan -if they control a swathe of an area, they can buy and sell back and forth to each other at prices the open market would never support. It could be a strategy involving money laundering, or tax shelters, getting $ outside of an unstable region, etc.
 
It's an interesting scenario in that it isn't like a totally new suburb coming under development like a planned community. The projects won't consist of 20 and 30 unit subdivisions being built by a single builder. And this situation also doesn't consist of a small handful of individual redevelopment surrounded by the older homes. The other wrinkle is that this location (and the Pacific Palisades and a couple other spots along Hwy-101 near the Ventura County line) are located close to the highest paying employment in the region, not an hour or more further away.

Some of these streets were completely burned out or 90% burned out whereas other streets have fewer burns. By the time the lots all get built out it's possible that the streets which consist of all-new construction might sell for more than the streets with a mix of old/new. If/when they run out of vacant lots to build the newer composition of these streets might prompt the parcels with the older homes into redevelopment. But that's years away at this point.

There are so many units that will come online that I'm wondering about the stability of the pricing. Will the prices increase as more of the lots are built out with the 3500+sf customs as are common in the Studio City/Sherman Oaks area or will the more limited number of buyers for lots vs houses result in only the most motivated sellers getting the sale? I think the former is more likely than the latter but I just don't know for sure. Plus, it will still be a minimum of 12-18 months between acquisition and completion so the pricing might change before the majority of the units get sold off.
 
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BTW, Google streets has previous pics. In this region they often have several, going back several years. I use that feature all the time
1747758836336.png


The County's zoning app has 2025 overheads. Find the parcel and run the parcel report


1747758550344.png


Same property on the post-fire 2025 overhead

1747758976034.png
 
It's an interesting scenario in that it isn't like a totally new suburb coming under development like a planned community. The projects won't consist of 20 and 30 unit subdivisions being built by a single builder. And this situation also doesn't consist of a small handful of individual redevelopment surrounded by the older homes. The other wrinkle is that this location (and the Pacific Palisades and a couple other spots along Hwy-101 near the Ventura County line) are located close to the highest paying employment in the region, not an hour or more further away.

Some of these streets were completely burned out or 90% burned out whereas other streets have fewer burns. By the time the lots all get built out it's possible that the streets which consist of all-new construction might sell for more than the streets with a mix of old/new. If/when they run out of vacant lots to build the newer composition of these streets might prompt the parcels with the older homes into redevelopment. But that's years away at this point.

There are so many units that will come online that I'm wondering about the stability of the pricing. Will the prices increase as more of the lots are built out with the 3500+sf customs as are common in the Studio City/Sherman Oaks area or will the more limited number of buyers for lots vs houses result in only the most motivated sellers getting the sale? I think the former is more likely than the latter but I just don't know for sure. Plus, it will still be a minimum of 12-18 months between acquisition and completion so the pricing might change before the majority of the units get sold off.
All you can do is use the prices of vacant lots as they are now - you can comment that as more lots become available, the supply and demand might change the price trend.
 
I don't get into forecasting the future or other forms of speculation in an appraisal report. This discussion thread is just a discussion.
 
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