Prediction Of Past Hypothetical Events

[Artemis Fowl]

All of us create PREDICTIVE MODELS every assignment. The sales grid (heck the entire process) is a predictive model...it's also regression.

 

[J Grant]

One minute before I write it...I predict my own opinion of market value will be.....$ 300,000 as of X effective date. I then write my OMV is $300,000 as of X effective date. My "prediction" came true.

I am NOT predicting retrospective , contemporary, or forward to an as of effective date that actual buyers and sellers out in the "real world "market would transact for $300,000. How could I, or any appraiser do that? If I was "that good, " at predicting events in the real world at an exact $/numerical amount , I'd stop appraising and bet odds in Vegas.

 

[J Grant]

All of us create PREDICTIVE MODELS every assignment. The sales grid (heck the entire process) is a predictive model...it's also regression.

In a sense yes.

However the reason appraisal market value opinion is not stated as a "prediction", is that might mislead readers to believe the appraiser is predicting an actual event/transaction in the "real world " market. When in fact, our opinion of market value is applicable only to its own appraisal model. ( which is why there are all those disclosures, intended user and use etc in the appraisal )

Amazingly, some appraisers themselves seem to believe their opinion of market value is supposed to be a literal prediction due to the word "most probable" ...which was not the intention of the word most probable. Most probable was put in the MV definition to replace "highest" ...a most probable price per the appraisal supported can be the lower, mid range or higher in the range.

 

[Tim The Enchanter]

I can predict the past with a high degree of accuracy.
SFW?

 

[TRESinc]

I can predict the past with a high degree of accuracy.
SFW?

 

[Mr Rex]

I can predict the past with a high degree of accuracy.
SFW?

Isn't that what an appraisal does?

 

[J Grant]

...An appraisal is not a prediction of a past event, an appraisal is an opinion based on a model of what the house should bring contemporaneous with the as of effective date ( the model being the appraisal ). The effective date might be a few days ago when we inspected, retrospective a few years ago or a future date, but the value model is as of the X effective date.

If any of you want to put yourself into the prediction business go for it but the appraisal does not say we predict, or predicted anything.

 

[Mr Rex]

Sure sounds like prediction:

Definition of probable
1: supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof

• a probable hypothesis

2: establishing a probability

• probable evidence

3: likely to be or become true or real

• probable outcome

 

[J Grant]

Sure sounds like prediction:

Definition of probable
1: supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof

• a probable hypothesis

2: establishing a probability

• probable evidence

3: likely to be or become true or real

• probable outcome

It's a model of most probable price for our reconciliation - is the MV opinion $ amount more probable for subject a higher, lower, or mid point price ( most probable replaced highest in the MV definition)

As it says above 1: supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof =the "presumption" is the appraisal model, using the above 2) probable evidence ( data) from the market and then applies analysis of the SOW to form conclusions and opinions As far as 3) likely to be or become real or true, people can infer that from an appraisal if they want , but the appraiser itself does not promise that or predict that. .

 

[J Grant]

Sure sounds like prediction:

Definition of probable
1: supported by evidence strong enough to establish presumption but not proof

• a probable hypothesis

2: establishing a probability

• probable evidence

3: likely to be or become true or real

• probable outcome

!) Above ( a probable hypothesis) is what an appraisal is. If you want to promise people 3)likely to come true or real..., go for it... but I don't want that kind of liability or people suing me because my "prediction" did not pan out as true in real life.

The intended user, intended use, limiting conditions etc are there to let people know it is 1) and not #3 above...thank god for that because if we put ourselves in the prediction business , we'd be open target for every disgruntled person who reads an appraisal and then finds the prediction "wrong" . .