Terrel L. Shields
Elite Member
- Joined
- May 2, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Arkansas
Johnny Carson's Carnac skit was one of my favorites...so while my predictions are not funny, it's the way I see it and like many such "predictions" I'll be dead long before it comes to fruition. It's like predicting climate disaster in 2100. Who will be alive to ridicule if wrong by then, or will you be viewed as a Nostradamus?
It is pretty obvious that neither the GSEs nor bankers want us. And with some what? 80,000 or so folks, what is our future but bleak? Well, first, a huge number of us are near the end of our career. In fact, over the next 10 years, I suspect our numbers will fall dramatically - most of the appraisers who were pre-Great Recession will be retired or have returned to room temperature. And that probably will impact Certified General disproportionately more than Residential folks.
So for non-bank work, the CG may expect to be working more non-lender than lender work. The AMCs will myopically still be trying to hammer appraisers into cheap work...but the incentive to cut fees is lessened. And the AMC seem to not understand their livelihood depends upon appraisers so a shrinking pool of mullets to do their bidding will not benefit them. Never mind the annoying requirements for diversity training, background checks, etc. The technical aspects required for appraisers is so steep, and the demand and respect so low, only an idiot would try to become an appraiser.
I just re-read my states appraisal laws-not particularly closely - but noted a lot of differences since its inception. Such as a personal interview with the board, and some required class work is in 20 hour blocks... who teaches a 20 hour block? No one so you get to take 2 15 hour 'qualifying' classes to comply. Of course, the required education means the vast majority of qualified appraisers to even get a license will be women because women now dominate the university rolls. A degree is required for the most part and fact is 60% of students are now women. This has serious implications for such things as agricultural appraisers, etc. Of any facet of the appraisal world where women are a decided minority it is among ag appraisers. And ask the average city girl about agriculture and they don't understand it and want no part of valuing a farm or walking among icky old cow patties. As for residential - perhaps more women are a good thing. After all in a couple, the woman is the deciding factor in buying a house (if momma ain't happy, nobody gonna be happy.) My assistant often called out things about a house I ignored. The laundry is far from the closets, etc.
Secondly, our state requires classes like statistics to upgrade a license. Posts on this forum makes it clear few appraisers are really "stats" oriented. Don't understand it. Don't apply it. Don't want anything to do with it. So who is going to want to advance for licensed to certified or residential to commercial licenses?
So will this mean a shortage of appraisers in the future that forces the GSEs to use AVMs, etc. even if they really wanted an appraiser? I suspect so. I suspect they will argue that there are too few appraisers in a sort of feedback loop where they don't use appraisers hence there are fewer appraisers as time goes on. And to find an appraiser will be a costly thing indeed. And the AMC? They won't be able to provide appraisers. They won't be able to find dum-dums willing to take the classes and especially if faced with class work like statistics, they will pass and just sell real estate.
So I predict the number of certified general appraisers by 2033 will be half that today. Perhaps somewhat higher percentage of CRs remain. And 90% of those who started before 2000 will be gone. Probably 60% who started pre-2008 will be gone. And how few appraisers started from 2008-2018? Not many. There is a labor gap coming there. And the AMCs will either go away or become regional appraisal mills. I don't see them surviving into the future under their current models.
Further, I don't see the demographic changing significantly on the mix of whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. There will always be a similar mix as now, with perhaps more Hispanics as they become more educated. It's going to be education that dictates the racial mix. And that intuitively means far more women than in the past as more men eschew college and elect to take good paying physical jobs like welding, construction, etc. The colleges are especially unwelcoming to white males.
It is pretty obvious that neither the GSEs nor bankers want us. And with some what? 80,000 or so folks, what is our future but bleak? Well, first, a huge number of us are near the end of our career. In fact, over the next 10 years, I suspect our numbers will fall dramatically - most of the appraisers who were pre-Great Recession will be retired or have returned to room temperature. And that probably will impact Certified General disproportionately more than Residential folks.
So for non-bank work, the CG may expect to be working more non-lender than lender work. The AMCs will myopically still be trying to hammer appraisers into cheap work...but the incentive to cut fees is lessened. And the AMC seem to not understand their livelihood depends upon appraisers so a shrinking pool of mullets to do their bidding will not benefit them. Never mind the annoying requirements for diversity training, background checks, etc. The technical aspects required for appraisers is so steep, and the demand and respect so low, only an idiot would try to become an appraiser.
I just re-read my states appraisal laws-not particularly closely - but noted a lot of differences since its inception. Such as a personal interview with the board, and some required class work is in 20 hour blocks... who teaches a 20 hour block? No one so you get to take 2 15 hour 'qualifying' classes to comply. Of course, the required education means the vast majority of qualified appraisers to even get a license will be women because women now dominate the university rolls. A degree is required for the most part and fact is 60% of students are now women. This has serious implications for such things as agricultural appraisers, etc. Of any facet of the appraisal world where women are a decided minority it is among ag appraisers. And ask the average city girl about agriculture and they don't understand it and want no part of valuing a farm or walking among icky old cow patties. As for residential - perhaps more women are a good thing. After all in a couple, the woman is the deciding factor in buying a house (if momma ain't happy, nobody gonna be happy.) My assistant often called out things about a house I ignored. The laundry is far from the closets, etc.
Secondly, our state requires classes like statistics to upgrade a license. Posts on this forum makes it clear few appraisers are really "stats" oriented. Don't understand it. Don't apply it. Don't want anything to do with it. So who is going to want to advance for licensed to certified or residential to commercial licenses?
So will this mean a shortage of appraisers in the future that forces the GSEs to use AVMs, etc. even if they really wanted an appraiser? I suspect so. I suspect they will argue that there are too few appraisers in a sort of feedback loop where they don't use appraisers hence there are fewer appraisers as time goes on. And to find an appraiser will be a costly thing indeed. And the AMC? They won't be able to provide appraisers. They won't be able to find dum-dums willing to take the classes and especially if faced with class work like statistics, they will pass and just sell real estate.
So I predict the number of certified general appraisers by 2033 will be half that today. Perhaps somewhat higher percentage of CRs remain. And 90% of those who started before 2000 will be gone. Probably 60% who started pre-2008 will be gone. And how few appraisers started from 2008-2018? Not many. There is a labor gap coming there. And the AMCs will either go away or become regional appraisal mills. I don't see them surviving into the future under their current models.
Further, I don't see the demographic changing significantly on the mix of whites, blacks, Asians, and Hispanics. There will always be a similar mix as now, with perhaps more Hispanics as they become more educated. It's going to be education that dictates the racial mix. And that intuitively means far more women than in the past as more men eschew college and elect to take good paying physical jobs like welding, construction, etc. The colleges are especially unwelcoming to white males.
