"Quantifiable Market-Derived Methods" for adjustments required by FNMA/USPAP

[Non Sequitur]

Stable

Who knows? The analysis shows no change year over year, the trend line shows a dip in the months between Sept 24 and Sept 25, while the monthly market change calculations indicate positive market condition adjustments for every month except September 24. So, with a Sept 25 report effective date, if Comp 1 sold for $300,000, went under contract in June and sold in August, a market condition adjustment of +$6,900 should be applied per this TrueTracts fancy software. Is this any better than old school PFA?

 

[Surf Cat]

I don't use graphs. Will that be required in future?
I do fine without it using my appraiser intuition and creativity.

Uh Oh.....

 

[Fernando]

Uh Oh.....

Why use graphs? I use stats which is more believable.

 

[sputnam]

I don't use graphs. Will that be required in future?
I do fine without it using my appraiser intuition and creativity.

Please cite the portion of USPAP that says it's fine to use your 'appraiser intuition and creativity' to support you opinions and conclusions. You can't because it's not there. All of your opinions and conclusions required to be based on the analysis of data.... not your intuition, not your creativity, not your experience.

 

[Non Sequitur]

Circling back to the TrueTracts output in post 188, that is a classic example of making the data fit the theory. And if you question why all comps have a 2-3%+ market condition adjustment in a stable market you're an uneducated luddite and weren't trained properly.

 

[alebrewer]

I personally wouldn't poopoo the mechanics of the analysis - I mean, it's just regression after all. I would question the inputs. (1) I doubt the CMS consists of 182 sales; (2) TT runs the data (at least it did) on 'unadjusted' comparables. So that, if it were truly analyzing the subject's CMS, and if it were analyzing trends post-adjustment, then the trendline exhibited in the results should emulate required adjustments in the sales grid. At the end of the day, trend analysis is no different than any other adjustment in the grid - any adjustment applied should serve to bring the adjusted range closer.

What I find a bit crazy is appraisers that apply these 'recommended' adjustments without using any common sense RE whether they're necessary or not. Prior to the TT trend adjustments, an appraiser might have a range of ~ $20k; apply the adjustments and the range is $80k. That's just not using the ole' noggin.

 

[Fernando]

Appraisers need to weed out outliers if they are to rely on regression models.
Humans are best to see abnormal sales and investigate for the unusual circumstances.
I just called on one comp which is close proximity but sold too low. Called agent and got the low down on the low sales price. Ain't gonna use that comp.

 

[Non Sequitur]

We’re getting close, and may already be there, to being able to just ask Excel in natural language to calculate and give details for adjustments:

 

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

Does anybody see the humor in the fact that after all these years of being accused of having an adjustment list, we are now being forced to make an adjustment list for every report?

 

[Non Sequitur]

I'm not sure of this link has been posted, but here's another adjustment provider:

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