Rates

[Joe Flacco]

What is it going to do?

 

[jeffreily]

View attachment 109186

What is it going to do?

It’s 4.65 today, does that mean it’s breaking out or do you redraw the channel upper end?

 

[Joe Flacco]

We are only two days into the week, so it could still close lower for the week and back inside. But the RSI is breaking out too, so it doesn't seem like it is fake move. Let's see what happens at the 2025 high of 4.8% and 2023 high of 5%.

 

[Joe Flacco]

The long term trend is higher as long as it stays above the moving average. The long term increasing trend just started in 2022.

 

[Joe Flacco]

These are the major levels higher. Not anytime soon, but they are possible targets over the next 20-30 years or so, as long as it is above the moving average.

On the way down, it always tagged the moving average before moving down to the next level. On average, it's tagged the moving average every 6 years or so. I thought it might go down and tag the moving average this year, but it's not looking like it right now.

It still could. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where it peeks above 5%, we get a quarter or two of contraction, and rates move back to the moving average before continuing higher to the next level at 6.8.