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Rates

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We are only two days into the week, so it could still close lower for the week and back inside. But the RSI is breaking out too, so it doesn't seem like it is fake move. Let's see what happens at the 2025 high of 4.8% and 2023 high of 5%.
 
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The long term trend is higher as long as it stays above the moving average. The long term increasing trend just started in 2022.
 
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These are the major levels higher. Not anytime soon, but they are possible targets over the next 20-30 years or so, as long as it is above the moving average.

On the way down, it always tagged the moving average before moving down to the next level. On average, it's tagged the moving average every 6 years or so. I thought it might go down and tag the moving average this year, but it's not looking like it right now.

It still could. It's not hard to imagine a scenario where it peeks above 5%, we get a quarter or two of contraction, and rates move back to the moving average before continuing higher to the next level at 6.8.
 
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High until after the mid-terms. COLA for Social Security will be 4%. Drop in energy will drag the CPI below 2% and then there will be a few cuts.
 
Elliott said:
High until after the mid-terms. COLA for Social Security will be 4%. Drop in energy will drag the CPI below 2% and then there will be a few cuts.
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I'd like to learn more about the impact of interest rate decisions on inflation, in the context of how many $$$ billions are spent, or saved, on SS retirement increases that typically are based on annual Q3 rate of inflation..... althogh even a 10% annual increase would be invisible compared to the price of .... virtually everything...
 
ZZGAMAZZ said:
I'd like to learn more about the impact of interest rate decisions on inflation, in the context of how many $$$ billions are spent, or saved, on SS retirement increases that typically are based on annual Q3 rate of inflation..... althogh even a 10% annual increase would be invisible compared to the price of .... virtually everything...
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I don't know about how much they pay out, but I was looking at the historical tax rates and maximum taxable earnings. They should make it minimum taxable earnings instead. For 2026 it is $184,500. They should make it so that OASDI tax and HI tax is collected on earning ABOVE $184,500. No tax below.
 
Joe Flacco said:

I don't know about how much they pay out, but I was looking at the historical tax rates and maximum taxable earnings. They should make it minimum taxable earnings instead. For 2026 it is $184,500. They should make it so that OASDI tax and HI tax is collected on earning ABOVE $184,500. No tax below.
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Reminds me about the SS formula that detrmine the retiree's benefit rate, based upon 30 years of active employment with adjustments to the extent that I receive as much of a benefit for the $5000 that I made 25 years ago as for my recent earnings....although I'm tickeled AF to get what I get, a 4% annual increase will add $112 A month to my stipend.... but advice to peeps who are thinking about leaving the profession: the appraisal income ****ty as it might be today sure is nice during retirement!!!!!!
 
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