Recovering Market?

[kristofer]

Can this be an increasing market like the cma shows?

My data indicates:
07/01/07- 09/30/07: 6 Sales Avg:$120,283, Median: $137,800 ADOM: 120
10/01/07- 12/31/07: 4 Sales Avg:$119,200, Median: $117,900 ADOM: 33
01/01/08- 03/30/08: 2 Sales Avg:$69,100, Median: $67,200 ADOM: 84
04/01/08- 06/30/08: 8 Sales Avg:$82,225, Median: 52,500 ADOM: 103

1.) The data tells me the market bottomed out and is now recovering. Would this tell you the same even though there are 27 current listings and 6 of them are REO's? Foreclosures have killed this market worse than any market I have seen, it has got to be one of the worst in the country.
2.) My search was based on 900-1500 square feet (subject is 1200) in the neighborhood boundaries with comparable year of construction, do I need to expand my search to all properties in the area?
3.) The last quarter (shown above) is obviously a more active time of year, how does this equate in the overall picture considering these numbers?
4.) How do you make time adjustments with this???

 

[Mztk1]

Data is too limited to draw a conclusion.

The average house in the first quarter of 2008 seems like it may have been larger than the average house in the 2nd quarter.

You may be better off using Avg $/sf comparisons and judging a time adjustment that way.

I can't really tell much from the data you have, but with that number of listings and the dropping median value it my hypothesis to prove that the market is still declining.

 

[Greg Bell]

Dead cat bounce.REO sales are for the suckers rally that always happens in declining markets..

 

[Charles Knutson]

The data looks like the market may have stabilized since 2007; have you broken down the sales data for market segments with in the sub area (i,e., separate analysis of REOs in average condition from Owner Occupied properties in good condition)?

From what I've seen, most sub areas in Metro Denver have stabilized to some degree, but some entry level neighborhoods that have taken the biggest hit from sub prime foreclosures are still declining.

Is this sub area east or north east of central Denver?

 

[kristofer]

The data looks like the market may have stabilized since 2007; have you broken down the sales data for market segments with in the sub area (i,e., separate analysis of REOs in average condition from Owner Occupied properties in good condition)?

From what I've seen, most sub areas in Metro Denver have stabilized to some degree, but some entry level neighborhoods that have taken the biggest hit from sub prime foreclosures are still declining.

Is this sub area east or north east of central Denver?

The town of Lasalle by Greeley

 

[toddmallard]

I see it as the median sales price is still dropping, the dom is higher. Its not stable in my eyes. Still going down. But again limited info on type of sales, seller concessions etc.

 

[Thern Newbell]

This is too limited of a data set to draw a reliable conclusion. It looks as if you are searching a broad price range within the size range that you indicated, which could mean that you are considering all sales regardless of age or quality, but limited within the size range. In my market, there are price ranges in certain areas that are doing very well, while higher priced homes are sitting for a long time. Your percentage of decline from 3rd qtr 07 to 1st qtr 08 is roughly 40%. I would hope that is not plausible, but I don't know your market.

 

[c w d]

Can this be an increasing market like the cma shows?

I wouldn't call it an increasing market just yet. I've noticed in several neighborhoods a stabilization and even an uptick of 1% for the quarter. You still need to consider the overall trend. For the year prices are still trending down. During that trend we will notice plateaus, peaks and valleys.

 

[The Bob]

Your data sample for some of the periods is WAY too small. You would be better off trying to find sales of the same address (i.e. sold in 2007 and then sold again later) or expanding your area. Also, markets are not defined soley by geograpphy........you should be looking for similar age, size, style, quality etc...and comparing based on these criteria. Maybe actives/pendings could help?

 

[Riick]

Your data sample for some of the periods is WAY too small. You would be better off trying to find sales of the same address (i.e. sold in 2007 and then sold again later) or expanding your area. Also, markets are not defined soley by geograpphy.....

I remember from Sadistics -- errrr .... Statistics classes that smallest sample size that was reliable was either 15 or 20
- and that was using some wild & sophisticated statistical measurement tool.
You have a grand total of 20 sales spread over a whole year, you can;t draw ANY conclusions from that small # of samples.
Widen the area.

Just did a report the other day on a 2-unit property, not enough sales in last year in that and surrounding neighborhoods to say squat, but well over 300 SFD sales, so:

~~~ Data on price trends is based upon sales of single family dwellings, **not** 2-4 unit sales.
~~~ SFD were used as there was an insufficient number of 2-4 unit sales to show a reliable trend.
~~~ It is **assumed** that sales of SFD and 2-4 units follow similar price trends.

(Perhaps I should have said I was making an "extraordinary assumption" ?)
Get more data and state your assumptions clearly.