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Regression analysis

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Donna Quixote

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May 23, 2008
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Certified Residential Appraiser
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Wisconsin
I recently spoke to a friend of my who is an appraiser and he has begun to do regression analysis for all of his adjustments in the grid. He took a few CE classes about regression analysis and took away from it that it is imperative that graphs and data on all adjustments are provided in the report. Is everyone else doing this? He was kind enough to walk me through how to import and work the info from our local MLS, and I found the final results less than reliable for the instance we used.

Paired sales comparison and regression analysis is not as reliable because the total sale price has a lot of variables, including more than just square footage or just garage count. Land value, land size condition, external obsolescence, etc all comes into play. What is everyone else doing?
 
The article behind the link is way over my head, but the discussion in it speaks to the reality that limits the use of regression for many appraisers - that's the lack of a sufficient number of reasonably similar sales.



A Connection between Paired Data Analysis and Regression Analysis for Estimating Sales Adjustments -

by Lipscomb and Gray


http://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol10n02/v10p175.pdf


"The two methods most often recommended for obtaining market-derived adjustments utilized in the sales comparison approach to appraisal are Paired Data Analysis and Multiple Regression Analysis. These approaches are viewed as competing alternatives, with advocates and detractors for each. The main purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that these two alternatives to estimating sales adjustments are equivalent under certain circumstances. This point of equivalence may prove to be a useful starting place for improving our understanding of the differences between and similarities of the two methods. After explaining the data requirements of each method, we provide a set of sufficient conditions under which the two methods produce identical adjustment estimates. We finish with a discussion of relative advantages and disadvantages of these two methods in estimating sale comparison adjustments."
 
I found the final results less than reliable for the instance we used.

Paired sales comparison and regression analysis is not as reliable because the total sale price has a lot of variables, ...

Exactly. Not every variable can be isolated. A simple illustration of that is dividing the sold price by the GLA which allocates all other variables and their contribution to the price to the GLA.
 
I thought so too. The example he showed me was for all houses in a large municipality of all styles that ranged from 1,000 to 1,500 sf in size to figure out the price per square foot. I know he was just teaching me the way to import the info into excel but it still illustrates that any grid could be made to backup any number made up. I could see using this just on the comps listed in the MC form, since those are actual viable comps, but it still does not take into account a lot. Are people really getting stips for these things?
 
The article behind the link is way over my head, but the discussion in it speaks to the reality that limits the use of regression for many appraisers - that's the lack of a sufficient number of reasonably similar sales.

Translation:
Do-Do in, Do-Do out.
No genus needed.
 
What is missing in the regression analysis is the factors relative to the subject. To be relative and therefore predictive, a change (or delta difference) in the comp's GLA relative to the subject produces a change in the sold price and the way the powers want it, it has to be linear. To do that, all other variables have to be constant and equal to the subject such that the contribution to price is zero and over a small range of GLA to be linear.

That means quality and condition factors, lot size, age, view, location, design, bedroom, bathroom, garages, etc, have to be the same as the subject just to isolate an adjustment for GLA.
 
Logically speaking, the sold price must equal the contribution of the improvements plus the contribution of the land, the basis of the cost approach. Of course it gets more complicated than that however, those are the variables that have the most impact on the sold price. So the deltas associated with the improvements plus the deltas associated with land will equal the deltas in the sold price.
 
The R square speaks to the relative amount of the dependent variable is accounted for by the independent variables. In paired sales, the same is true regarding making an adjustment for each and every item. You don't adjust for each and every thing, or the numbers would all be identical if done correctly. The purpose is to account for the primary drivers of value. Land, OTOH, is valued as if vacant and available for its highest and best use, and that means compare the subject land value to the comparables land value and make a $ for $ adjustment. That's not part of the mix - or should not be - since land is best valued by its own comps.

There are many times that an R square of .5 or .6 is significant and times it doesn't pass the smell test. Just as a paired sale might lead you to a nonsensical value (the fireplace is worth $56,000) there are times regression isn't the right answer.

But the problem is that where for 20 plus years everyone simply stated what the SF adjustment was, the regulators now want some sort of mathematical "proofs" that you, in fact, calculated the number and did not simply PFA. So put in your regression, your paired sales, your graphic presentation, or your sensitivity chart and you have your "proofs". Let them dispute it if they will.

It's no step for a stepper. I fail to understand why there is such resistance to using these tools. No one has to use regression, but it certainly isn't impossible to learn nor meaningless to use...no more so than paired sales or sensitivity. And a simple graphic presentation of the relationships is often good enough support.

And frankly nothing we do is going to account for the neighbor next door who walks around his yard in the nude, the kid next door that the cops come to see every few days. We won't know that the seller was feuding with the neighbor over a fence most likely. Etc. etc. There are a lot of factors we didn't know to adjust for and wouldn't know how to adjust it if we did know.
 

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Presuming you are selecting somewhat similar data to match the subject...
if my subject is 2,000sf, I'm looking at homes 1,750 to 2,500sf, similar lot sizes (maybe a range from 6k to15k sf) and overall similar age,
...chances are fairly good that when I regress for GLA, I'm going to have a reasonable starting point (the incremental contributory value for each additional square-foot of living area within that data set). This can be refined using sensitivity analysis.

I use regression in my reports, but for residential work, I don't consider it the final say-so. It provides an indication to which I then refine to my selected unit of adjustment.

Trend analysis is sometimes better: Comparing two sides of the street with the same kind of homes on each side over the last 3-years using date and sale price. Homes on the west side of the street back to other homes. Homes on the east side of the street back to the Hopland High School. Trend the west side of the street and then trend the east side of the street (both trend lines on the same chart); if you see a gap between the trend lines, that is strong evidence that an adjustment is warranted. You can use that gap to approximate the adjustment, and then refine it from there.
This problem can be solved in other ways, and one could use regression to do it as well (maybe using $/SF, and comparing the same square-footage using the two formulas; this will give you a higher and lower price indication; that difference is the basis of the adjustment). But a picture sometimes is worth a thousand words, and everyone can understand two lines on a chart, with the lines representing price differences, and the gap between the two representing the value difference for being on one-side of the street vs. the other.
Now, common sense tells us that all other things being equal, the homes backing to the school are going to be worth less than the homes that back to similar residential properties. The question is "how much?". The best answer may be, "this location can affect the price by 3-6%". And that's what I say:
"Based on the trend analysis, a location adjustment to reflect backing to the high school is reasonably within the 3-6% range. I've selected 5% and have applied that adjustment in the grid."
I've never had someone argue, "well, it should be 3 or it should be 6".

Depending on the element you are trying to analyze, that indication might suggest no adjustment up to some price-point.
"The analysis indicates a reasonable adjustment can be anywhere between zero to $25k. In my opinion, this feature is a positive market appeal item and would have an affect on value; I've therefore selected an adjustment of $15k, which is in the upper-half of the adjustment-range indication."

The analysis first (a) supports the decision to make (or not make) an adjustment and (b) if an adjustment is to be made, provides an indicated unit of adjustment to apply. The decision to adjust and how much to adjust should be based on some logical reasoning; it is the appraiser who provides that logical reasoning, and a sentence or two can communicate that logic to the client/intended user in the report.

You get the picture.
 
I recently spoke to a friend of my who is an appraiser and he has begun to do regression analysis for all of his adjustments in the grid. He took a few CE classes about regression analysis and took away from it that it is imperative that graphs and data on all adjustments are provided in the report. Is everyone else doing this? He was kind enough to walk me through how to import and work the info from our local MLS, and I found the final results less than reliable for the instance we used.

Paired sales comparison and regression analysis is not as reliable because the total sale price has a lot of variables, including more than just square footage or just garage count. Land value, land size condition, external obsolescence, etc all comes into play. What is everyone else doing?


I'm doing as I have...using good judgment, researching, analyzing, and commenting.

Some think that RA is the be-all, end-all. I think not.

That is not to say that RA cannot be a tool in the appraiser's bag of tools, but, as a long-time appraiser (and friend)--and one who is well-educated on all things "Regression"--told me (in words to the effect), "If there's enough market data for Regression Analysis to yield reliable results, there's enough data for the appraiser to figure it out on his/her own. If not enough data--well, RA isn't of much use."
 
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