Michael P Jacobs MAI
Member
- Joined
- Jun 2, 2007
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- Florida
Fellow commercial appraisers, I'm looking for a reliable historical and forecasting tool for CRE cycles (office, retail, industrial and multifamily).
Three years ago I started discussing the PwC RE Barometer discussion (when relevant) in reports and began including it in a separate section with narrative links to HBU and valuation sections in about 100 appraisals last year. I'm hearing mostly positive feedback although I had to tone-down the "recession" talk since that is still a MAJOR RED BUTTON for many. After all this time I'm finding it useful for my own frame-of-reference, and I'd like to improve the section. It's far from perfect.
I don't know of another "objective" market-acceptable resource for this kind of survey or market indicator. Any ideas or suggestions?
The whole point is to justify where estimates and assumptions fall within a range. In a "contracting" market you'll find downward pressure on prices (and you'd be more conservative) while in an "expansion" market we see investors pushing prices (or OARs, or rents, etc.). You get the idea - this in part justifies our overall leaning in the various ranges. I'm not looking for a sliver bullet, just better data to improve report-readers' understanding.
Three years ago I started discussing the PwC RE Barometer discussion (when relevant) in reports and began including it in a separate section with narrative links to HBU and valuation sections in about 100 appraisals last year. I'm hearing mostly positive feedback although I had to tone-down the "recession" talk since that is still a MAJOR RED BUTTON for many. After all this time I'm finding it useful for my own frame-of-reference, and I'd like to improve the section. It's far from perfect.
I don't know of another "objective" market-acceptable resource for this kind of survey or market indicator. Any ideas or suggestions?
The whole point is to justify where estimates and assumptions fall within a range. In a "contracting" market you'll find downward pressure on prices (and you'd be more conservative) while in an "expansion" market we see investors pushing prices (or OARs, or rents, etc.). You get the idea - this in part justifies our overall leaning in the various ranges. I'm not looking for a sliver bullet, just better data to improve report-readers' understanding.