- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Problem with the quote in blue ... How is "Our company has a property we can not legally own for more than three years from acquisition, less now, and thus we HAVE to sell it" ever considered a typically motivated seller?
Like you stated though, even the AI tries to avoid "always" and "never" even though they do state "distressed sales like foreclosures and short sales" which is a point blank statement that all foreclosures and all short sales are distressed sales.
So, let me get this straight, if I can find even 2 non-distressed sales that sold in under 10 days then ALL sales suddenly become non-distressed sales as long as they are marketed for 10+ days and have no other features of distress?? Even if average and median marketing times are longer than 10 days??? And even if maximum CDOM is over 3 years????
How brain-blown would that be? Yet it fits the criteria of your statement exactly as it only takes two to create a plural.
You may understand what you meant and you may be taking due diligence in analyzing marketing time, but that does not mean that people who read what you wrote and may even agree with you are actually doing so ... actually, if they agree with what you wrote there the probability is higher that they don't follow due diligence in analyzing market time as you do.
There, again, you miss word it a bit ... such probably *SHOULDN'T* be considered, because a) they are not marketed to the same market and b) again are not arms length transactions nor typically motivated, and could only be valid if thoroughly analyzed, commented on and appropriately adjusted, just like REOs and other distressed sales.
Like I said before, during the many previous iterations we've had of this discussion over the years the progression of the discussion is always the same. After you guys fail to find any appraisal references that significantly support your perspective you complain about those references being poorly worded or incorrect or in conflict with what the geniuses at NAR or Fannie say about appraising. It never fails and you guys never disappoint. FTR, each of your predecessors before you have eventually said the same thing about these references so we're really not breaking any new ground here, either.
I'd be impressed if you came up with an original argument but so far you've just been following the script.
Let's talk about what can happen in the real world with exposure times:
I've already commented on the fact that I have personally seen a number of datasets where the two subsets fully overlap and have no discernible difference in either exposure times or sales prices (after consideration for condition, of course). I've seen it often enough that I don't consider it a red herring.
Either you keep missing it when I comment on that or you have dismissed the possibility altogether on the basis that you think I'm lying just to make a point. Either way, I can't help you there. It's become apparent to me that you intend to believe what you want to believe regardless of what the AI said about it or what TAF said about it. And forgive me for saying so, but next to them I consider whatever Fannie or HUD might have to say about the situation to be completely irrelevant to me as a professional appraiser.
I particularly disagree with your blanket assumption that REOs are never marketed to owner-users or that the fear is universal of whatever X-factor can be attributed to an REO. Some owner-users are clearly not deterred by such concerns as evidenced by them paying just as much for the REO as their neighbor did for the outgunned traditional sale. After all, isn't that exactly what happens when the traditional sale doesn't sell for any more than the REOs nearby?
You can say you've never seen it but you can't say it doesn't exist. OTOH, I can say it exists because I've seen it. The burden of proof to prove otherwise rests with you. Good luck with that. BTW, I have no problems taking at your word if you say you've never seen it - that's because I recognize that markets vary and they don't all march to the same beat.
As for motivated sellers, if everyone in pa particular market segment who's selling is selling because they fear the consequences of not selling then why do we assume the banks are any more compelled than anyone else? If a rational person bought into the forecasts some economists are making about the RE markets over the next 10 years then what else would they do but walk away from a situation they considered untenable? Forget what the hormonal wrecks do with such decisions, how else would a purely rational person act in a significantly declining market?
Do we really assume a bank is *more* distressed than the short seller who has recognized they'll *never* recover the PV of their lost equity and on that basis can't afford to continue to pay $1000/month more for their housing just so they can say they didn't walk away?
I sure hope not. But based on what you keep saying maybe that's really the way you see it. If so, I can't help you there, either.