Sales Grid Adjustment Comments

[J Grant]

I'm sure post 159 includes everyone except TimD, JG, and Tim Hicks.

A troll is as a troll does

 

[J Grant]

1. I do not think those words mean what you think they mean.
2. I dunno. I thought I was opining Market Value at the time. No one told me I was supposed to appraise The Market too.

You were blind, deaf and dumb to what was going on in the market ? It's part of an appraisal to consider and analyze market conditions. The first time you've heard of that?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Nothing says we are predicting a future value

That's why we are not to blame for the crisis nor could we see we were above trend. Shiller did predict the crash because he was plotting sales over time and realized sale prices were above trend and rent v. sales prices were divergent. That is, the GRM was getting higher. We had that data but never acted on it nor were asked to.

You and others like you show a maddening ignorance of the problem.

Dream on. You didn't have to push values, all you had to do was use comps that were pushed and virtually all were so any sale not at a high price was declared "below market". You don't understand the very rudimentary elements of economics 101.

 

[J Grant]

1. I do not think those words mean what you think they mean.
2. I dunno. I thought I was opining Market Value at the time. No one told me I was supposed to appraise The Market too.

What did you think my words meant? They mean what I wrote...prices were high during the boom, thus nearly all of us appraised "high" values , relative to a decline later...but a segment of appraisers during the boom ( pushed $ opinions to hit a higher target than the most probable price and application of MV definition would credibly indicate. As I said, the methods used to inflate value during the boom are no different than what is done today to inflate value on an appraisal.

 

[djd09]

If i am a troll what does that make you?

 

[J Grant]

That's why we are not to blame for the crisis nor could we see we were above trend. Shiller did predict the crash because he was plotting sales over time and realized sale prices were above trend and rent v. sales prices were divergent. That is, the GRM was getting higher. We had that data but never acted on it nor were asked to.

Dream on. You didn't have to push values, all you had to do was use comps that were pushed and virtually all were so any sale not at a high price was declared "below market". You don't understand the very rudimentary elements of economics 101.

the bold below from my post 162....choosing "pushed value " comps over predominant value comps IS pushing value...you don't even understand that. And no, not virtually every sale was pushed...prices were higher, but some sales were inflated value even then and had accompanying transactions, as well as other tricks to push value such as fudging property condition, ignoring a subject property/site adverse influence etc.

If 6 similar recent property sales were available, and 3 sold sky high as investor multiple flips, and 3 sold high but within prevailing range as owner occupant transactions, which 3 of those sales might an appraiser use as comps, and how would that choice affect their market value opinion...whether during the boom, or today.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

"pushed value " comps over predominant value comps

When 95% of sales are valued high, you didn't need to use outliers to simply add to the value direction. When the entire market is moving in one direction and the most "conservative" appraiser is carried along in the current as well as probably not being used as much by lenders favoring the more pliant appraiser, then the price feedback loop reinforces the problem. The mindset wasn't solely that of skippy, rather good appraisers got confirmation (bias) every time they looked in the MLS and became anchored (another bias) to the notion RE never goes down, the worst that could happen was inflating values would stall a few months, and a crisis couldn't happen. What you are saying is none of the property you valued pre-crisis was ever too high, never went down in value, or the owners went underwater and defaulted.

 

[djd09]

Who accepted the "over" valued appraisals? The same ones who accepted the bailout. Life is good when you have access to taxpayer money.

 

[J Grant]

When 95% of sales are valued high, you didn't need to use outliers to simply add to the value direction. When the entire market is moving in one direction and the most "conservative" appraiser is carried along in the current as well as probably not being used as much by lenders favoring the more pliant appraiser, then the price feedback loop reinforces the problem. The mindset wasn't solely that of skippy, rather good appraisers got confirmation (bias) every time they looked in the MLS and became anchored (another bias) to the notion RE never goes down, the worst that could happen was inflating values would stall a few months, and a crisis couldn't happen. What you are saying is none of the property you valued pre-crisis was ever too high, never went down in value, or the owners went underwater and defaulted.

A good portion of the first part of this post makes sense, the rest not so much....

 

[Artemis Fowl]

What did you think my words meant? They mean what I wrote...prices were high during the boom, thus nearly all of us appraised "high" values , relative to a decline later...but a segment of appraisers during the boom ( pushed $ opinions to hit a higher target than the most probable price and application of MV definition would credibly indicate. As I said, the methods used to inflate value during the boom are no different than what is done today to inflate value on an appraisal.

OK...I've tried to say this before. Read the actual words that are used. I was not even talking about "your words". Somewhere this gets turned around and issues are discussed that were never intended to be. I will not even attempt to address the market value opinion vs. my "appraise the market" comment.
EDIT: oops...I just did the same thing lol. Gets so confusing when you say a thing and then say something else about the same thing or when the thing I thought was a thing turns out to be a different thing or a combination of all things. Think that covers it...