Sales Since to October 2010 Levels

[Terrel L. Shields]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-sink-to-a-14-year-low-as-home-buyers-pull-back-ahead-of-the-november-election-2fd27cd9

Frankly I think it has zero to do with the election nor with the interest rates. It is the product of housing being too expensive and the economy being weak.

 

[TerryRohrer]

And September was the end of a four month trend of declining mortgage rates, which turned on a dime as soon as the Fed cut rates.

 

[Mark K]

Frankly I think it has zero to do with the election nor with the interest rates. It is the product of housing being too expensive and the economy being weak.

I think its both. I'm surprised at the number of people waiting to see what happens in the election to make a move on various things. Neither of them can do much of anything to affect the economy, unless the laughing fool gets a Dim congress and Senate. Then the avg. person is screwed but the chances of that happening are very slim to non-existent.

I think its more the lack of affordability that's finally catching up and wages staying mostly stagnant. The average house price is too far above the average income.

 

[J Grant]

It is not just the price of houses, it is the cost of keeping them.

Homeowner insurance has increased substantially, and so has RE taxes since property values rose. HOA fees in condos or PUD communities are almost double what they were a fe years ago here in FL

Some folks who buy all cash or sell high and move to a relatively cheaper state or downsized are immune to the pressure, but working and professional people feel it. At the same time, there is still a shortage of inventory in some segments because folks who purchased or refiannced at a3% interest rate are holding on their homes.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Monthly data makes bad headlines. Especially seasonally adjusted monthly data. Fact is that sales have stabilized this year at low levels following a rapidly declining trend from 2021 levels.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Homeowner insurance has increased substantially, and so has RE taxes since property values rose. HOA fees in condos or PUD communities are almost double what they were a fe years ago here in FL

I see insurance going up at a higher rate than the actual value of the property. My insurance notice will give me an annualized estimate of the RCN of my house and it was very high the last six month update. But the rates are slightly higher (I pay insurance twice a year.) Also, they are changing some conditons - like pro-rating the roof and not paying for dented metal roofing, only paying if it is penetrated. I am sure Florida is much worse considering the losses with hurricanes. An earthquake in California would result in the same there. Major flood in the Ohio-Mississippi River basin and it would go up there.

HOA fees and PUD communities relate to HOA costs as well. And the new Condo laws in Florida is really pinching some people I understand. But the state does not want to be beholden to make good on major costs that the POA should have been paying for all along. And these POAs and builders, over the years have used LLCs etc. to escape liability for past issues by simply filing bankruptcy while the occupants have to pick up the pieces.

 

[Fernando]

I'm beginning to see a trend that prices have not increased around here since 2021.
The high mortgage rates have kept prices from increasing.
Stocks were a better investment increasing a lot since 2021.

 

[J Grant]

Mortgage rates have already softened and are at a historically decent, if not super low rate.

The housing market faces two diametrically opposed forces -
1) The staggering rise in home insurance costs, increasing RE taxes, and, in some cases, HOA and condo fees. All of that makes owning less affordable on a monthly basis.
2) There is still in many segments an inventory shortage because people who bought or refinanced at 3% are hanging on to their houses.

That said I do see prices softening still and more inventory until a price is reduced to a reasonable level.

I am busier than I was in recent months. How long it will last idk. - perhaps until the new WAIVER expansion starting in 2025 takes another chunk of work away?

 

[Fernando]

Mortgage rates have already softened and are at a historically decent, if not super low rate.

The housing market faces two diametrically opposed forces -
1) The staggering rise in home insurance costs, increasing RE taxes, and, in some cases, HOA and condo fees. All of that makes owning less affordable on a monthly basis.
2) There is still in many segments an inventory shortage because people who bought or refinanced at 3% are hanging on to their houses.

That said I do see prices softening still and more inventory until a price is reduced to a reasonable level.

I am busier than I was in recent months. How long it will last idk. - perhaps until the new WAIVER expansion starting in 2025 takes another chunk of work away?

Surprise to see 30 year loan at 7% today.
Odd market that Oil barrel prices dropping yet 10 year bonds increasing today.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Lennar are providing FHA financing at 3.5% even after discounts AND the presenter also noted such interest rate concessions need to be taken off the appraisal - and that is exactly right. These are the real concessions we are overlooking.
Horton said buyers are staying on the sidelines. See, Horton and Lennar own the title co., own the development company, mortgage co. and are the builder and seller....And we are seeing Lennar and Horton going into small towns trying to make the same margins and are not making the sale.

The prices are too high. Period. Horton had a short-fall of expectations. Can they go bankrupt?