"Sample" Appraisal: Subjective Value Containment Approach

[RCA]

Not attacking. Honest criticism and open to the possibility that I could be wrong and your method will replace us all.

Cross your fingers and hope the guys with statistics have better things to do. .... Don't count on it.

 

[TRESinc]

seriously? you post an appraisal on an appraiser forum and then get your panties in a bunch when people give you constructive criticism? WTH did you think was going to happen? everyone here was going to cheer for you and pat you on the back and send you boxes of cookies for a job well done? go back to statistics, you are too thin-skinned to be an appraiser anymore.

 

[RCA]

seriously? you post an appraisal on an appraiser forum and then get your panties in a bunch when people give you constructive criticism? WTH did you think was going to happen? everyone here was going to cheer for you and pat you on the back and send you boxes of cookies for a job well done? go back to statistics, you are too thin-skinned to be an appraiser anymore.

Like, I should let the nonsense by? You will get a lot of flack from me, you can absolutely count on it. Well, if I have time to deal with the inevitable nonsense.

But, that it. It's a good exercise. But its interesting to see how people are blind to their own ignorance.

The "Dunning Kruger Effect":

https://www.verywellmind.com/an-overview-of-the-dunning-kruger-effect-4160740

"Incompetent people tend to:

• Overestimate their own skill levels
• Fail to recognize the genuine skill and expertise of other people
• Fail to recognize their own mistakes and lack of skill

Dunning has pointed out that the very knowledge and skills necessary to be good at a task are the exact same qualities that a person needs to recognize that they are not good at that task. So if a person lacks those abilities, they remain not only bad at that task but ignorant to their own inability."

You see this sh-- so very clearly in these posts, you know with the missing EI. It's sadly a waste of time to read posts from certain individuals.

 

[George Hatch]

On the fundamental level what's meaningful to a user is defined by the user. That's the dividing line between the appeal to reason (I agree because it makes sense to me) vs the appeal to authority (I will defer to the expert to tell me what I think).

 

[ucbruin]

"Your effective date has been redacted but I am going to assume 2015 or 2016 since those are the latest land sales included. How is a land sale from 2000 or 2009 pertinent to the effective date?"

I find this to be a curious comment from someone who claims to have compiled lands sale from the beginning of time....

 

[Mark K]

I find the whole thing to be hogwash.

But its so long and has so many words and numbers...how can you fail to be impressed?

 

[RCA]

"Your effective date has been redacted but I am going to assume 2015 or 2016 since those are the latest land sales included. How is a land sale from 2000 or 2009 pertinent to the effective date?"

I find this to be a curious comment from someone who claims to have compiled lands sale from the beginning of time....

Yea, this guy doesn't have a clue.

 

[RCA]

On the fundamental level what's meaningful to a user is defined by the user. That's the dividing line between the appeal to reason (I agree because it makes sense to me) vs the appeal to authority (I will defer to the expert to tell me what I think).

View attachment 43047

We have a war here. I think the user tweaking must be done on the user side, not the appraiser side. That is to say, we can boil user requirements into a finite set of tasks, one or more of which the appraiser can be asked to complete. Those minutiae that are not covered by the standard set of tasks ---- need to be dealt with by the user himself, on his side of the fence.

Can you figure out why that is necessary in the long run?

The traditional/legacy appraiser wants to hang on to this "user defines illusion" ("user illusion") because that is one thing he believes will protect him from automation. It won't have any impact. Once the advanced residential appraisal infrastructure is in place the GSEs will flock to it, - the new cheaper, far more powerful and far more resilient technology. It won't even buy you more time.

Best recommendation:

1. Learn MARS and get good at it.
2. Learn how to do basic programming in Python or C#.
3. Improve inspection skills.

 

[Tom D]

best blog of the year. it's like somebody walking into the locker room naked to impress everyone. then everyone gets naked to argue the point. i gave up my SRA, the thing i cherished so much, which in reality had become worthless. i looked at your appraisal. it didn't take long for me to get phased out. i can't imagine a normal person even understanding it. i am not arguing the quality of the report, or your methodology . i don't understand your placement, and flow of the information, it makes my head spin. although, i hope to grab some useful insight from it to use in my reports.
anyway, you are a braver appraiser than me. i wouldn't walk into this blog room naked.

 

[RCA]

best blog of the year. it's like somebody walking into the locker room naked to impress everyone. then everyone gets naked to argue the point. i gave up my SRA, the thing i cherished so much, which in reality had become worthless. i looked at your appraisal. it didn't take long for me to get phased out. i can't imagine a normal person even understanding it. i am not arguing the quality of the report, or your methodology . i don't understand your placement, and flow of the information, it makes my head spin. although, i hope to grab some useful insight from it to use in my reports.
anyway, you are a braver appraiser than me. i wouldn't walk into this blog room naked.

Yes, I completely understand. It's a problem. MARS is totally documented and there are good beginner videos on using it. Appraisal is documented and we have courses for that. We have courses for using regression with appraisal. MARS is just a refinement on linear regression, so that is really not the issue.

What is different is the analysis of residuals and applying that to appraisal. We need more docs on that; although this technique of analyzing residuals is used in other areas. We see these various statistical techniques and methods continually flowing from one discipline to another. My son-in-law was telling me how they were looking to epidemiology for new statistical techniques to use in shale/oil exploration - "propensity score matching":

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11004-019-09847-z

Then I decided to see if that was already used in real estate -

https://pages.jh.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol33n02/05.245_278.pdf.

Now, I'm asking myself if it has value in valuation.

====== This is about appraising neighborhoods of properties, not just one property. Single property appraisals will loose out over more broad-based types of analysis, because customers want more accuracy, better prediction, low cost, AND FAST TURNAROUND. =================

You know when you do "matched pair" analysis, it is really just for one property. When you get into regression, you are developing a model for all the properties fed into the regression software.

So, yes, we have a lot of appraisers using regression. They don't realize they are building models for entire neighborhood property types - and that these models could be re-used for weeks or months even, depending on how stable the market is. How fast does a GLA adjustment change? How accurate does it even need to be? I remember when I started in appraisal and was told to use $25/sf for everything, years on end. In fact, if you have your comps evenly bracketed around the subject, changes in the GLA balance out. It only becomes really critical when the comps are completely out of balance, for one reason or another.

If I wanted to and wasn't partially retired and taking my sweet old time on everything, working on the car, going on vacation, wasn't so intellectual with broad-ranging interests, was more focused on making money, ....