"Sample" Appraisal: Subjective Value Containment Approach

[George Hatch]

Or this one: 234 Clifton Rd, about 4 blocks west of your subject: 1952yb home of 770sf, 2/1 on a small 3000sf lot. The pic I found had a listing for it that said

Remodeled and accented with a Craftsman flair! Ocean Views from the All-Seasons Deck, abundant Shaker-Style kitchen cabinetry and workspace, original Hardwood Floors throughout the upstairs and lovely open wood beam ceilings. Tile Floors in Kitchen and Baths, Double-Pane Windows, Separate Heaters for each floor, Single-car Garage with Storage Shelving and Laundry Area. The Master Suite features Recessed Lighting, Built-in Bookshelf/entertainment area, covered patio access, and a Master Bath with large walk-in shower and pedestal sink. Relax and enjoy the fresh air and serenity of the coast, just minutes to all conveniences. Come visit us today!​

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My point is, if most of the appraising occurs when you select and qualify your comps then why are you making your model work harder by selecting less similar comps? Why are you going back so far in time relative to an 11/2017 effective date if you don't have to?​

 

[RCA]

I'm not arguing the model that you're using to adjust those comps. I'm asking why you're even using 3bd sales when you have 2bd sales nearby.


Like #4 Hibbert, for example. An apparent model match, located on your subject's block, which reportedly sold in 09/2017 for $799k and which was apparently in more similar overall condition than any of your other sales. (And just in case it's not clear, I found the sale before I looked for the pic.)

View attachment 43059

4 Hibbert is not in pro.mlslistings.com, which is what I use for Pacifica. I am not inclined to go outside of the MLS for various reasons.

Anyway your question: " I'm asking why you're even using 3bd sales when you have 2bd sales nearby. " means you need to go see the doctor. Really? You don't know?

 

[RCA]

Or this one: 234 Clifton Rd, about 4 blocks west of your subject: 1952yb home of 770sf, 2/1 on a small 3000sf lot. The pic I found had a listing for it that said

Remodeled and accented with a Craftsman flair! Ocean Views from the All-Seasons Deck, abundant Shaker-Style kitchen cabinetry and workspace, original Hardwood Floors throughout the upstairs and lovely open wood beam ceilings. Tile Floors in Kitchen and Baths, Double-Pane Windows, Separate Heaters for each floor, Single-car Garage with Storage Shelving and Laundry Area. The Master Suite features Recessed Lighting, Built-in Bookshelf/entertainment area, covered patio access, and a Master Bath with large walk-in shower and pedestal sink. Relax and enjoy the fresh air and serenity of the coast, just minutes to all conveniences. Come visit us today!​

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View attachment 43063​

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My point is, if most of the appraising occurs when you select and qualify your comps then why are you making your model work harder by selecting less similar comps? Why are you going back so far in time relative to an 11/2017 effective date if you don't have to?​

Ha, ha, ha,ha, ha. You don't know what you are talking about. It is a house with a certain GLA that is similar, otherwise, it is very different. It is in the Edgemar area, which is one of the highest-priced in Pacifica, as opposed to the Pacific Manor area. That is the reason it is not a comp. It is neat and cozy on the inside. I happen to like the house very much - at least say if I were single. It has a two-story balcony on the back. The gal that owned and built the balcony was a writer. .... Second, even if I included homes in the Edgemar area, I would not give this one much weight - as it is otherwise NOT a good comp.

Look if you have questions about the Subjective Value Containment Approach, i.e. application of residual analysis to containing or limiting the subjective valuation, that I might respond to. Enough though of this BS, please.

 

[RCA]

As Glenn Walker probably did, I would say your effective date was sometime in November 2018 but you had pictures dated December 7 2018. both of these snapshot photos taken directly from your report.

Also, you MLS printouts had a copyright of 2018. Guess you did not redact everything.

Somebody is trying to get at that effective date. Give up.

 

[George Hatch]

So does that mean you don't think these sales happened?

You know, back in the day it used to be standard to knock on a door or call a broker to confirm a sale. I guess those protocols are obsolete these days with that newfangled easy button and all:




Meanwhile, if I'm a cubicle farmer in Pittsburgh PA and I'm trying to sort out any differences between two appraisal reports and one of them has a comp selection that overall is more similar than the other - regardless of sources being used - then I might have some questions about the credibility of both appraisers.

 

[George Hatch]

Ha, ha, ha,ha, ha. You don't know what you are talking about. It is a house with a certain GLA that is similar, otherwise, it is very different. It is in the Edgemar area, which is one of the highest-priced in Pacifica, as opposed to the Pacific Manor area. That is the reason it is not a comp. It is neat and cozy on the inside. I happen to like the house very much - at least say if I were single. It has a two-story balcony on the back. The gal that owned and built the balcony was a writer. .... Second, even if I included homes in the Edgemar area, I would not give this one much weight - as it is otherwise NOT a good comp.

Look if you have questions about the Subjective Value Containment Approach, i.e. application of residual analysis to containing or limiting the subjective valuation, that I might respond to. Enough though of this BS, please.

So that's what your written analysis and reconciliation is for - to account for these variables. You know, the appraising part of the assignment.

I do not know this area nor do I claim to. I don't have access to any of these databases except via a google search. But I do know how to look for sales data and compare their various attributes. I know how to have a questio. And I also know how to figure out that a dataset for a simple little 2/1 subdivision dogbox that has gross adjustments ranging from $75k - $190k doesn't exactly engender a high degree of confidence for the reader.

It seems to me that you're taking the "engineering" part of your "value engineering" to a whole new level. It makes me question whether you're pushing the button or the button is pushing you. But hey, it looks impressive, so you get points for that.

 

[RCA]

Bert, you are heavily invested in this. Is there any possibility that our feedback is at all useful to you or is everybody else in the entire profession just too stupid to get it? Either way I think there is something you can learn from it if you are open enough to what you're hearing here. Opposing counsel would, at this point, likely be thinking "mission accomplished".

Well, look that is not quite correct. I'm kind of sour on real estate. I look at valuation from a more general perspective, like valuing machinery, robots, or really abstract stuff like Hubbard does, e.g. the value of IQ points when it comes to calculating the cost of mercury contamination of our drinking water.

Real Estate is just a vehicle for experimentation. Sometimes I make some extra cash from it.

 

[Michigan CG]

My adjustments are very well supported.

You made a $1,400 adjustment for an $800,000 house based on a regression with a 0.70 R2. That is less than 2/10th of one percent.

 

[RCA]

So that's what your written analysis and reconciliation is for - to account for these variables. You know, the appraising part of the assignment.

I do not know this area nor do I claim to. I don't have access to any of these databases except via a google search. But I do know how to look for sales data and compare their various aspects.

Good for you. But you should have access to this area through your MLS. Surprised you don't.

 

[RCA]

You made a $1,400 adjustment for an $800,000 house based on a regression with a 0.70 R2. That is less than 2/10th of one percent.

I don't know what you are talking about. Which comp? Are you looking at that first copy of the report that I said was corrupted? Get the good version. The only house there that sold for $800K is Comp 10 - which was the one that came out the worst on adjustments. But the net adjustment was -$52,595. It was a probate/trust sale, and perhaps I should have excluded it, but regression did give an adjustment for probate sales - so I put it in. It was the only comp with an absolute adjusted value that was off more than 2.14% from the average of all adjusted prices. 3 were 1%, 5 under 2% and then there was 2.14% and that -5.25%