That 27 is fairly meaningless unless you define a significance level. And then the number of cases required for significance will depend upon the strength of the relationship.
The old prof has to tell you that I looked up all houses in Nambe that were currently listed on the day of the appraisal or sold in the previous year.
I eliminated all those on less than 1 acre or with legal/financial problems -- e.g., foreclosure. I discounted the eight remaining cases at the same rates that appraiser used.
Good for you! You'd be amazed how it is that when the public wants to challenge property taxes all those sales with "legal/financial problems" are all now demanded by the public to be valid comparable. Bias is very alive and well.
Then I ran a simple correlation between price and square feet. <....snip....>
No, no, no, and no. Not only is your above a bad method, it becomes vastly a worse method when acreage properties are at play. Toss your results out and start over.
That's eight cases and significant at the point .01 level at least. (don't want to look it up.) I entered my sq ft in the resultant formula and -- I take the resulting nnmber seriouly --
Thus showing how higher education often results with people thinking they can atypically tackle what they've never been trained to do.
the appraiser we have been discussing came in more came in more than $300,000 lower. Actually, I found an almost perfect relationship between square feet and price for homes in my old nieghborhood back in VA.
So what? One might as well say that since they've found a perfect relationship between planetary objects and the mean distance of their orbits from their anchoring sun that the relationship can be used to determine the number of attached barnacles on ships sailing south from Paris. You've got two different markets, and your using a highly questionable method. Nice try though.
So that is two neighborhoods out of that do show a relationship that you report is very rare.
I heartily recommend you ponder.....
http://www.twainquotes.com/Statistics.html
If I use Zillow's number nfor the date of the appraisal my number is very high -- even for Nambe. It is almost twice the value produced by said appraiser.
Did you have a point?
Moreover using his professional judgement of the local market, the appraiser passed up all of those houses in my village including three in my subdivision -- all of us on five acre lots and similar views and one of them virtually the same house size. All custom built with non-stock materials -- different interpretations of the pueblo/santa fe style. The previous appraisers, using his best professional etc took two of them for comparables -- which was possible for both appraisers following professional guidelines.
So many complaints, so little time...
Instead that low-ball appraiser crosses an Indian reservation to pick three homes
He was "Brave" to do that.... LOL
-- all on one acre -- one a foreclosure and another a short sale. Even he admitted on the form the quality of construction and condition of the third home (
with metal neighbors0 was below average. Two burros right across the fence did add a distinctive smell to the place. And the dung heap at his front gate added to the aroma.
Seriously, appraisers just don't care what people are made out of these days. It's all this diversity stuff... They can be made out of wood, plastic, even slime (I try to avoid shaking hands with people made out of slime) and we just don't pay any attention to any of it!
They have a garden, fruit trees and "livestock" on their own one acre. Howver, this is illegal -- they have a legal right to one-acre feet of water for household use only Supposedly they use a cistern on the roof and run-off from the road -- but it would have to flow up. And that cistern is a joke in the high desert. If that cistern were occupied the entire lot, it would pull in 1.5 acre feet a year.
Did you have a point again? Illegal gardening, you should hop over a forum or two and discuss that with the northern California appraisers here on the forum.
Incidentally, I have 3 acre feet of crystal clear, pure, passed all tests well water that pumps out at 12 gallons per minute. (Incidentally I get nothing for that -- but lot takes major whacks in comparison to lots with no well and no permit to drill one, but it has "rights" to an unkown amount of surface water supplemented septic systems leaking into the system.)
Back to my "comparable" somebody stuck them with this and they are trying to pass it on. But it is not working and they continue to change agents and drop the price. It is now listed for $123 per square -- the same figure that my place appraised for. Incidentally, their place is anothe a two family slice job.
This is turning into reading a rant.
Speaking of metal neighbors the've got a bunch and one did sell -- you know, long and narrow with a big window at one end -- and skirt and nice steps and a cute little roof.
Just a moment, I need to go pour myself a drink and after I get a few down myself I'll follow your points better.
It sold for $132 a square foot -- more than my place is appraised at. It's on a lot less than 1/8th the size the size of mine and within noise distance of a major highway. This property are four comps in the village which is considerably less desirable than mine. The realtors and owners pretty much admit this by pretending they are in Nambe.
So a jacked up trailer, tiny lot, hghway noise, no views,
is worth more per square toot than
........... Ok, I'm back.... Yes, per toot.... I get that now.
a site built custom built, high quality,72 massive vigas -- the walls have double 2x6 studs. Put those vigas with their existing spacing on that trailer and it would be crushed like a bug.
What kind of bug? Appraisers like detail.
we have almost 80 windows, glass doors, and skylights, dual zone heating ac, the two heaters are propane -- but we can switch entirely to two jotuls backed up with electric to take advantage of lower prices.
I have a drill press and a table saw..
The brick in the kitchen area is decorative -- but they are also columns that hold that hold up the vigas and make possible a 60' x 40' L shaped open great room.
Sounds wonderful!
Two master suites with walk in closets and baths -- one has in addition to the large -- a two person
You know, once I went to after getting back but then it was later. Hey, have to refill.... be right back.
View of 5 independent mountains
............
I'll admit it, I get jealous of wealthy mountains.
.......... more than 12K ft, thus snow capped. the two of the three highest in NM. Out the back we see a hundred foot cliff with a box canyon cut in. Never been grazed back there -- it is unchanged -- the way nature made it. It's a protected view -- we and the neighors own more than a mile of this cliff.
Sounds wonderful! Say, what are your neighbors made of?
Two miles up a dead end road. I am not overpriced for my neighborhood which has some incredible homes larger than mine -- I don't make the top fifth of the homes. Should I go on? Will you continue to think that said appraiser came up with reasonable comparable and a reasonable value for my home.
I used to live in a modest home but a lot of blind luck and I don't anymore. It's no jacked up trailer. My assessed value is blatant balderdash
I favor the word poppycock myself.
Should I mention that his stated data source of is the MLS, drivebys and a claim to have inspected two of the homes.
I'll ask some other appraisers if we should start a poll to decide if you should have mentioned that or not.
Without explanation there are numbers nowhere close to those in the MLS. Not a single word of explanation although many statements about which guidelines he violated for how many comparables -- in at least one case he violated the same guideline for all six homes -- it is gross adjustment -- in fact, it's over 30% for five comps.
Appraisers cannot "violate" a "guideline." These are guidelines, not "Rules."
The square feet of three homes are different than that reported in the MLS -- in every case all four digits are wrong, the largest error more than 1,000 feet off. So the $/sq ft is also wrong. And he identifies the age of home when the MLS says build date unknown. No explanation of course.
In his professional judgement using his knowledge of the market -- he changed hard numbers?
.