Shrinking comp database

[Tim Hicks (Texas)]

Is anybody else experiencing this problem. I have done several appraisals lately where none of my sales are within six months. I did two this month where I had to use sales over a year old. They were unique properties (read high priced) that sold with no recent comps available. I have never had to do this in 11 years. We have a great MLS system, but the sales are drying up. Plus, we had a whopping 2% increase in the DFW area last year. However, that 2% is inflated by the low range housing increase. Mid to upper level home sales have stagnated or dropped in many areas. How are things in your area?

I do very few cookie cutters. Darn it! Everything seems to be oddball anymore.

 

[Farm Gal]

Tim:
First off don't underestimate the power of the new programs: The AVM's or Fannie Freddie Loan Prospector have taken all the 'easy ones' to the table. Thehy don't need no stinkin' appraisal! 8O

IN addition: I believe we are starting to see the results of the recent "grab the money and run OR get stuck" phenomenon. A lot of folks grabbed all the extra equity in their homes and remodeled to their heart's content (why move?).

Add to this the fact that the majority of the folks who had been contemplating moving UP or Downsizing have done so in the last 24 months when the rates dropped and dropped (Some are paying 2/3rds of what thier 'old' mortgae ran! and ... now... We have darn few sales with which to work!

I think this is going to throw a real curve in the automated models in the VERY near future :twisted: as when they ain't no sales what we do (those of us who do REAL research) becomes more valuable!

Anyway the REO bigtime is about to hit: fasten your belts its gonna be bouncy!

 

[Dee Dee]

Tim,
Welcome to my world. :lol:

LeeAnn,
I can relate to your "grab the money and run, OR get stuck" phenomena.
I'm seeing it in it's full glory in my neck of the woods.

Just in the past couple of months I've noticed that a growing number of homes that were owner-occupied and had 'for sale' signs out front are now vacant. I wonder how long those relocated sellers can hold on if they're making payments on an empty house and trying to make a new start elsewhere. Yup...methinks you're right. It's gonna get ugly.

 

[Oregon Doug]

and then... I just completed an REO appraisal where every available comparable sale in the market was an REO sale...

REO sales are now a sizable portion of my comparable sale data base.

Oregon Doug

 

[Travis McGee]

Similar problem in South florida. Because of sheer volume, there are a few comps available.However much less than before-in upper ranges of one million plus, often no sales in 6 months. However when I look in the LISTINGS for the communitY-there are a lot-some with marketing times of over a year.

Yet the owners still think they are sitting on gold mines and won't drop the prices. The idiot realtors encourage this-or they'll be embarassed for overpricing the homes.

Greed-the human condition.

 

[Stone]

Dee Dee - watch how many of those for sale by owner houses end up being listed by a realtor. Any chance that will be mentioned in the on market/ off market part of the MLS?

 

[Mountain Man]

Every winter my comp base get stale. Drives the UW nuts, but I haffta use old sales...... that's all I got. My area is mostly resort, vacation homes. The sales don't happen when the "residents" leave for Florida. :lol:

 

[Dee Dee]

Dee Dee - watch how many of those for sale by owner houses end up being listed by a realtor. Any chance that will be mentioned in the on market/ off market part of the MLS?

Michael,
I've been keeping an eye on it. Unfortunately I think that some of the FSBO's are because the homeowner can't afford to pay commission to an agent due to little or no equity, or they need what equity they have left to start out someplace new.

 

[Bemis Pownall]

Lately listings are the best comps and priced much lower than the dated sales in the report...
We often throw in a listing, pending as comp 4,5,6 and try to explain away..
Did someone say bbbbuuubbbble?

:icecream:

 

[Stone]

Dee Dee - the same thing is going on in this market at the lower end. Unfortunately, it seems like some of the houses that could benefit the most from professional marketing are the ones that are being sold by homeowners without much experience with the process. In my area, many of these get put on the market with a realtor after several months of not selling. I have noticed that some of the flat-fee services seem to be more popular, and have more success. They are still cheaper than a real estate agent, but offer more service than just a sign. [/quote]