Slow Down?

[ucbruin]

I think housing market is going to be good in 2019. 30 year fixed headed towards 4.0% plus more supply than there has been in a while in some markets. I think market absorbs all of the increased supply this spring / summer.

Will this translate into more appraisal volume (full/hybrid/etc.)?

 

[Joe Flacco]

Will this translate into more appraisal volume (full/hybrid/etc.)?

It could. I think we have seen peak refinance activity for the long term but if rates get well below 4% maybe there could be a nice pop in refinance applications.

 

[Gobears81]

We have other areas where we spent vast amounts of money on

Entitlement programs are the elephant in the room, as are military programs

https://www.businessinsider.com/highest-military-budgets-countries-2018-5#3-saudi-arabia-13

If spending equals efficacy, we should be able to pummel China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India, France, Japan, and the U.K. in a war..at the same time! And that is before the undertaking of the additional military branch (Space Force).

The change in campaign financing laws have shifted politicians roles to used car salesmen - actually, that's an insult to used car salesmen. I do eminent domain appraisals for the state and have to fill out paperwork detailing any conflicts of interest (none), yet the politicians running the state and the country are elected on the budget of millions from corporate donations. Do you not think that if any legislation came to their desk that even potentially had an adverse effect on their biggest donors, they would support it? Massive conflicts of interests that need to be addressed, and to keep the dissent of the masses to a minimum for this, they give EVERYONE a tax cut that is financed by....whoever is buying treasuries and unfortunately, China appears to be the biggest holder of U.S. debt.

 

[ICT RE]

Entitlements represent around 70% of the federal budget, and continue to grow. Twenty years ago they were around 40% of same. Twenty years isn’t that long ago.

We officially passed the point a couple years back wherein now over half of taxpayers actually pay no income tax. Politicians (both sides) have effectively decided to buy votes via the tax code and its various deductions and credits. Many collect money they have never even paid in the first place (EITC). Sacred calves.

Our nation as we know it today is economically unsustainable in the long-term, and that’s not hyperbole. One party is aware of this but just sort of ignores the elephant in the room; the other is so challenged in basic economic theory, and so embracing of intellectual nincompoopery, that their main platform is to actually spend more and continue the expansion of govt... like the punchline to a joke for econ nerds or something.

I recall a great quote from humor columnist Dave Berry:

”The Democrats seem to be basically nicer people, but they have demonstrated time and again that they have the management skills of celery. They're the kind of people who'd stop to help you change a flat, but would somehow manage to set your car on fire. I would be reluctant to entrust them with a Cuisinart, let alone the economy. The Republicans, on the other hand, would know how to fix your tire, but they wouldn't bother to stop because they'd want to be on time for Ugly Pants Night at the country club.

 

[Carnivore]

30 year fixed headed towards 4.0% plus

Where did you get that from? I hope your forecast is right!

https://themortgagereports.com/32667/mortgage-rates-forecast-FHA-VA-usda-conventional

 

[ucbruin]

Who here on the AF is going to refuse to take their entitlement???

 

[J Grant]

Why are social security benefits considered an "entitlement"? It;s money people paid into while working.

I read military spending is 54% of discretionary spending. Look back historically at any nation who waged multiple wars and eventually it did them in. Because instead of investing in their own citizens ( education, health care etc) they invest in killing...every war since WW 2 was a disaster for America ( with exception of the Gulf war) and Iraq was the worst example and on top if it the Iraq debacle was financed by the Chinese, the start of our becoming a debtor nation.

Well, the thread is getting a bit off topic but how do you separate health of housing market from the rest of the economy....they are related. Appraising , specifically res mortgage side has its own set of adverse developments reaching a critical mass, couple that with a slow down and result is what we are experiencing now.

 

[EddieB]

What entitlement UCB?

 

[ICT RE]

Who here on the AF is going to refuse to take their entitlement???

You assume SS will be there for those of us still several decades away from retirement.

That, my friend, is a literal extraordinary assumption.

 

[Carnivore]

Now would be a good time to buy a house. Yes, interest rates are higher, but please Who doesn't want a 4% rate. With increased Supply you are no longer competing with as much as they were earlier(prices paid exceeded list price). So a savy buyer might be able to negotiate down a list price to over come to some degree the higher current interest rate. Can they get the price down to negate the entire up swing. Probably not, but they can end up paying less any way. There is no doubt in my mind that extremely low interest rates and high demand caused prices to rise...even on the individual level we saw bidding wars. Supply had a play in this..no doubt. New Builds were caught off guard and took awhile to crank up production.

I have been anecdotally watching sales in the MLS. The 100% or Above list price sale has now changed to more common/typical 97-100% of list price sale price.