Smart Appraisers Make Dumb Mistakes?

[Joe Flacco]

Who or what identifies a "mistake"? There is no true test of anything being correct, reliable, or a "mistake" other than listing / marketing of the property. Trying to say that anything is a mistake because algorithm says so is just dumb. Thinking that the algorithm is correct and is a basis for identifying errors or mistakes is a what is dumb.

 

[J Grant]

Who or what identifies a "mistake"? There is no true test of anything being correct, reliable, or a "mistake" other than listing / marketing of the property. Trying to say that anything is a mistake because algorithm says so is just dumb. Thinking that the algorithm is correct and is a basis for identifying errors or mistakes is a what is dumb.

? If a lot is 6000 sf and appraiser writes 60,000 sf by accident that is easy to identify as a mistake. If zip code is 34441 and appraiser typed in 33442 it is easy to identify as a mistake.

 

[Joe Flacco]

I will go toe to toe with any algorithm or AVM in a predicting sale price experiment if anybody like a GSE or somebody can set up something like that. I will blow these algorithms out of the water. It will be not even close in urban locations like DC. Probably closer in suburban locations but still less reliable.

 

[Joe Flacco]

? If a lot is 6000 sf and appraiser writes 60,000 sf by accident that is easy to identify as a mistake. If zip code is 34441 and appraiser typed in 33442 it is easy to identify as a mistake.

That doesn't have anything to do with bias.

 

[J Grant]

That doesn't have anything to do with bias.

Who said it did? you asked about mistakes.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Who said it did? you asked about mistakes.

This whole thread about bias resulting in dumb mistakes. What are you talking about.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

What qualifies as a dumb mistake anyways?

any mistake that affects results is "dumb",

ROVs...invite you to second guess yourself. And if they present better comps, how would it not be a "dumb" error upon your part to have "missed" that comp(s)... And if the value changes, then your original report is flawed and you have violated USPAP...we aren't supposed to make a mistake that big are we? I think it is a stupid standard, because a transposed number can "change" the value. OTOH, if you work an area that is in the margins, are you actually expected to be a member of 4 or maybe more, MLSs? I know an area where you could be in the Tulsa MLS, NEO MLS, NWA MLS, or a system in SW MO...I think the old ones merged 5 counties or some such in the SW corner. Its changed names since I worked there. Not to mention the ones handled by brokers who do not affiliate with an MLS.

Another one is specialty property that rarely shows up in any MLS. Schools, fire stations, public buildings, or agricultural property like grain handling facilities, RV parks, Marinas, resorts, etc. These are wide spread and comps could be 100 miles away or more. How easy would it be to miss a sale?

 

[Mark K]

If smart appraisers can make dumb mistakes, can they also make smart mistakes?
Can a dumb appraiser make a smart mistake?
Who decides if it was a smart or dumb mistake?

I won't even open the ignorant vs. stupid can o' worms.

People make mistakes; always have, always will. Sometimes they are big mistakes, sometimes little. That's why insurance companies exist.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

I mean people naturally have biases. Being smart or intelligent has nothing to do with having biases or not. I don't know what that has anything to do with valuation bias.

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Perfect example is the inability of a human being to address randomness, which can be addressed only quantitatively, because of inherent human bias.

 

[ZZGAMAZZ]

ROVs...invite you to second guess yourself. And if they present better comps, how would it not be a "dumb" error upon your part to have "missed" that comp(s)... And if the value changes, then your original report is flawed and you have violated USPAP...we aren't supposed to make a mistake that big are we? I think it is a stupid standard, because a transposed number can "change" the value. OTOH, if you work an area that is in the margins, are you actually expected to be a member of 4 or maybe more, MLSs? I know an area where you could be in the Tulsa MLS, NEO MLS, NWA MLS, or a system in SW MO...I think the old ones merged 5 counties or some such in the SW corner. Its changed names since I worked there. Not to mention the ones handled by brokers who do not affiliate with an MLS.

Another one is specialty property that rarely shows up in any MLS. Schools, fire stations, public buildings, or agricultural property like grain handling facilities, RV parks, Marinas, resorts, etc. These are wide spread and comps could be 100 miles away or more. How easy would it be to miss a sale?

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Just prior to reading your comments, I was wondering how it is possible that efforts to offer listing agents an opportunity to provide potential comps for my consideration, which they used as the basis of a listing strategy, inevitably results in a long list of properties--none of ever are appropriate comparables (none)