• Welcome to AppraisersForum.com, the premier online  community for the discussion of real estate appraisal. Register a free account to be able to post and unlock additional forums and features.

Square footage adjustments

Status
Not open for further replies.
When possible I take the same approach as Pam, especially if the comps are very similar in other regards and I have both smaller and larger comps.

A couple of observations though:

1. Sq ft adjustment only seem to work on small differeces of say up to 20%. Its hard to accurately adjust a 1500 sq ft house to one with 3000.

2. If the comps are close, a lot of times an adjustment of 28%-36% of the AVERAGE will work out pretty close (i.e. add all 3 comps price/sq ft, divide by three and use 28%-36% of that figure. Remember you are only adjusting for marginal differnces. Garages, land, room count, view etc have already been addressed. Maybe Austin can shed some light since he has done some regression studies on sales data.
 
And Austin's answer should be along shortly.....

I dont think you can use a stock percentage or a stock number. It is something that is different at every level of the market and even in different subdivisions within a similar market.
 
Bill is right, Austin has entered the building!
Pam has come up with the same solution I use I think. At least we are on the same playing field. This all has to do with the proper sequence of adjustments. The correct sequence of adjustments comes from the market and you have to have a system to extract the adjustments from the market. I have used this system for a long time and it has never failed. First, forget all of that crap about location, design and appeal, functional utility, etc. adjustments. That stuff was put there for number hitters. Work the cost approach in reverse in the sales comparison approach. Adjust for major dollar items first like basements, garages, porches, etc. I keep a graph at the bottom of the page that moves every time I make an adjustment and guides me in the selection of the proper sequence of adjustments. One graph is the GLA vs actual price and the second on the same graph is the GLA vs adjusted price. Once you have made all adjustments for physical items only except GLA, I program my spreadsheet to make a size adjustment. For example if the subject has 1,000 sf and sale # 1 has 1,100 square feet, I program it to make a 100 sf + adjustment. Do this for all comparable sales. Then program the sheet to a grid square where you put your guess for size adjustment. For example, enter $50 per square foot and watch the trend line move after it makes a size adjustment at $50/sf. If the trend line still has a positive slope, use a lower $/sf number. Keep changing the adjustment $/sf until the trend line for the adjusted prices has a zero slope or is flat. That defines a perfectly adjusted sale. If anything else is influencing price you can see it in the variance of the adjusted sale points about the trend line. Normal random variance is generally plus or minus 7%, so if you are that close, no use looking for further adjustments. If you use this method you will find that you don’t want clone comps, you wanted two comps that bracket the subject and only one very similar. This helps judge the gravity of the value influencing factors.
This system has one draw back: You cannot cheat. If an adjustment is justified, it is shows up right on the graph. If you make an adjustment that is not justified or pick bad comps, there is no way you can make it work. You are trapped in to doing it correctly. Which is probably why my system will never be accepted by the industry. Basically, what I am doing is doing a manual-least-sum of squares regression analysis by using size to avarage out all unknown value influencing factors. If after I am finished and I have missed something, it will show up right on the graph. Then I go looking for it. I don't just assume it is there and adjust for it like view for example. If view matters and one comp has a view, you can guage the view. If view doesn't matter you can clearly see it on the graph.
 
Jeff, in Oct I did an entirely site built metal house.... frame/siding and roof... all metal. It was built in 1947, matched pair is a problem, only 5 of them built in Grand Rapids. It's called a Lustron Home, has an interesting history, Lustron had to agree to built houses in order to get the government to release the "steel quota" so he could build his service stations.
 
Austin: is there a way you can show us mortals how to set up such a graph? It sounds so logical, thay, as you intimate, you would not likely find it in a text book.
 
In my county I can go to the assessor's office and find serial number IF it was a mobile home purged to real property.

There is not any good set number to use for your square footage adjustment...too many factors to considered. Pairs analysis is the answer. Do everything else and what is left to equalize the properties is your adjustment. Good answer Joanne.

We have seen from $15 to $35 a square foot depending on the quality of construction, size, and features. We once had a modular home factory here that built to a higher standard then most tract stick built homes. It was so good, in fact, it went broke because they built to good of a home.
 
Mike Garrett wrote:

There is not any good set number to use for your square footage adjustment...too many factors to consider. Pairs analysis is the answer. Do everything else and what is left to equalize the properties is your adjustment.

Reply: Mike, I think you are on the right tract but based on my experience you are just short of discovering the pot of gold. First of all, if you will read all of the latest writings of the leading-edge thinkers in this field you will find that match pairing has been totally discredited as an appraisal method primarily because match pairs in theory requires a perfect market assumption of which there is none. In the real world, normal random variance makes matched pairing a pipe dream. If you adjusted for everything else and use about 10-matched pairs and averaged them, you would come closer to having a meaningful number. The key statement from your post that caught my attention was: “Do everything else and what is left to equalize the properties is your adjustment.” Absolutely correct in my experience and that is what I was getting in my above posts. The method of equalizing is the key. I use a method that equalizes by adjusting for size, which at the same times averages out other minor unknown value influencing factors. The only logical method of doing the equalizing is a method of least sum of the squares regression, which can be done manually by iterations as I described above. The reference point is the trend line. If you do a perfect job of adjusting the comp sales and graph the results, the trend line or line on a graph drawn connecting the points on the graph will be on a straight line and perfectly flat with no slope. You adjust the comps to the subject guided by the trend line and when the variance of the properties from the trend line shows least sum of the squares you have equalized and have the best possible solution. Normal random variance will explain +- 7% from the trend line. If a sale is outside this range, then you start looking for the missing value influencing factor and if you find it you adjust for it. You don’t need anything like patched pairs to measure this factor because you can gauge it by looking at the variance of that factor from the trend line that causes that sale to be some distance from the line. I don’t I think I will live long enough to out live matched pairs theory. If you will get a copy of the AI’s “Work Book” 1985 vintage, which is a problem solving text book with examples demonstrating appraisal methods, on page 60 I believe after one of the sales comparison problems there is a long comment saying that matched pairs is a simple method that will give a general answer but regression methods are the most accurate solution. In 1985, regression was not a practicle solution except for the very few but with modern day computers the solution is just a few key strokes away. That was over 18 years ago and matched pairing still has its diehards. :lol:
 
Hey Austin,
This is like the third or fourth time you have touted your regression analysis for sales adjustnments, that I can remember. I have in the past asked you to share your program with me, Excell I think, but for some reason you are not able to transmit it via the internet. Now, I know there is alot interest in using this method, especially with some of us that have a background or experiance with statistical math and the like. So here is what I propose, put it on a CD and I will pay you for it. Or why don't you get with someone to write the program and package it and sell to us all, I am sure Matt Johnson at Appraiser Depot could help you market it.
 
Austin....what you do is what I do without the benefit of a computer. It comes from years and years of experience in the market to develop the adjustments. I have nothing against appraisers who use regression analysis, it's just hard to teach old dogs new tricks.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Find a Real Estate Appraiser - Enter Zip Code

Copyright © 2000-, AppraisersForum.com, All Rights Reserved
AppraisersForum.com is proudly hosted by the folks at
AppraiserSites.com
Back
Top