The Future of the Profession- Brightest for the flexible

[Terrel L. Shields]

In the past year and 1/2 I have been influenced by two instructors regarding what the future holds for appraisers..... John Wilkerson, past president of the NAIFA and George Harrison of the Columbia Institute are both intelligent and knowledgeable leaders in this profession.

The future will be different. So whats new? The crunch 'em for el cheapo prices may be over soon. Departure is going to go the way of the dinosaur. 2055s gone. A 50 year site history may be in the offing and a 3 or 5 year sales history is a lead pipe cinch in the next year or two. Appraisers who thrive best will be doing more counseling, consulting, business appraising, and land planning. Our training needs to be oriented towards those aspects of the profession. USPAP may merge with the international standards sooner than you think.

Perhaps the most exciting development in Wilkerson's eyes is an effort to get a appraiser controlled and appraiser only database that can be accessed worldwide. Appraisers will sell their data into the system and buy that data they want. The AVM & AMCs won't have it. The banks won't have it.

Both men believe that these are exciting times of opportunity, not doom and gloom. In fact, John suggests that forfeiting the cookie cutter work to the AVMs will free the appraiser to approach professionalism with professional fees for professional work, not 3 reports for a day's wages in drive bys.

I endorse their position. Any appraiser not utilizing the word processer and narrative reporting formats is under utilizing their talents.

Terrel

 

[Dee Dee]

Perhaps the most exciting development in Wilkerson's eyes is an effort to get a appraiser controlled and appraiser only database that can be accessed worldwide. Appraisers will sell their data into the system and buy that data they want. The AVM & AMCs won't have it. The banks won't have it.
Terrel

Terrel,
I've heard of this concept quite some time ago. There was an appraisal sweat shop in my state that was pushing the concept and development of a large appraisal database, and of course they stand to make big bucks off of the transactions from their own stable of appraisers inputing data. It's been a few years since I've checked into their practices, but I wouldn't trust (forget buying!) any information coming from their appraisers.
Considering how many bogus appraisals I've seen in my area, I'm not sure I would trust another appraisers work to be accurate. Someone would have to monitor the quality of the information that is sold into the database, or decide which appraisers work is accurate and which is not.
If you think about it you'll see where this type of system could easily be corrupted.

 

[wyecoyote]

my .01.5 cents.

Databases for non disclosure states would be fairly decent. I have often wondered how some do it there (emphasis on MLS)? Others I have talked to one said he actually visists the local barber shop/bar/grocery store to get information on sales (small area in Alaska).

However, for disclosure states the information is readibly available in some counties. Some counties are still hard data searches (not enough sales for a computer company to utilize and one or two realtors). Though as Dee Dee states how much trust do you put into other appraisers work/comments? I know that I put as much trust into others work as far as I can throw the appraiser.

I agree with some that AVM's may be good for Cookie cutter subdivisions. But nothing compares to an competent appraiser that goes out and evaluates the subject with a full inspection.

I still do not agree with the doom and gloom crowd that says that appraisers will be extinct in 5 years. I started 5+ years ago and heard this and still I am working. My mentor heard this when she started that was 15 years ago. I do belive that our work will change and we must change with the times. If this means all reports go out as narratives so be it. If this means that all reports go pdf instantly to the client so be it. Change in our profesion will continue like in any profesion.

Perhaps the most exciting development in Wilkerson's eyes is an effort to get a appraiser controlled and appraiser only database that can be accessed worldwide. Appraisers will sell their data into the system and buy that data they want. The AVM & AMCs won't have it. The banks won't have it.

You know this would be great but some have sold us out on this the AI for one? If there is a database they (AVM/AMCs/Banks) will want access to it and will be granted access when the person in control sees a big check coming to them. Or simply what is to stop them from hiring an appraiser and paying to the appraiser for access to said database. I also belive several good lawsuits against BPO's/AVM's may change the mind of some banks/providers. Also a downswing in the housing prices will change their minds until next upswing.


Just my thoughts for the day.

Ryan :roll:

 

[Anonymous]

Terrell,
Why do residential appraisers need national data bases? I know where to get the data I need in the geographic area in which I practice. If I am working in an area outside of my normal geographic area I ask appraisers , assessors and brokers for their opinions. A national data base means that national appraisal companies will try to take work from local appraisers.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

What and how such a database for Residential Appraisers will be remains to be seen if they can pull it off. Clearly there will have to be some method of preventing someone from mining the entire database. But I see opportunity beyond individual comps. Many times we are faced with complex, near one-of-a-kind problems for which development of a truly defensible adjustment boils down to guessing.

What is the market impact of a murder within a house? A database of houses selling vs what they should sell nationwide IS usable information that as close as anything measures emotion. Can you do it for a single assignment??? Of course not! Bell did do such an analysis in Real Estate Damages A data base of stigmatized houses could be useful in defending your choice of adjustment. Likewise, a database might allow you to do Linear Regression on property from a wider geographic area where data was sparse. 70 sales are often considered a minimum for such work. I would have to pull up sales from 5 or 6 counties from the past 3 years to get 70 sales of, say, poultry farms. I would rather do that than try to do LR from 15 or 20 I have in my database.

Think outside the box. Bell did a study of the impact of an airport upon real estate values. No one can do that to estimate the external ob. of a single sale, but with a database, you could afford to justify your adjustment with something. And SOMETHING to justify it, beats NOTHING but gut feeling in a court setting..And folks we are going to see more and more court settings, voluntarily or involuntarily.

Wilkerson had some words regarding AI in that he avered they are more oriented towards large scale commercial appraisals and international assignments, etc. forgetting the "little guy", so to speak. Actually he never said AI, but you got the drift. And again, you are selling only the data you want to sell, buying only what you want to buy.

 

[Syd Warburton]

I have been an appraiser since 1989. I have owned and operated my own shop since 1992. When I first entered the profession I was told that it would be a short lived career because AVMs would be replacing appraisers. I was told to prepare for the imminent exticntion of the appraisal profession. I ignored the doomsayers and every year since, my business has grown. It continues to thrive and still I hear the same trumpets of doom.

My personal view of the profession is that it is exactly that, a profession; along the lines of accountancy or law. My vision is to share my firm with deserving professionals by making partners out of employees. The mom and pop nature of our profession is the main factor preventing us from commanding the respect we deserve. We are fractionalized and thus weakened due to the lone wolf mentality that I find pervades this profession. By combining our talents we can more effectively manage our resources, the primary resource being time. It is within our power to control our data. We cannot control it alone however, it will take a concerted effort. The first step, I believe, is to establish firms headed by appraisers, staffed by appraisers, and owned by appraisers.

 

[Dale Smalley]

Maby a napster like sharing software would work when all the data is in the new xml format.