The Future: Removal of the "Human Expert"

[RCA]

We will soon stop talking about human "experts." AI will take over the role, across the board, although no doubt with the help of humans or robots.

The elevated role of Certified Appraisers, MAIs, CPAs, Doctors, Attorneys, and Engineers will generally be replaced by AI devices and systems. This is hard to imagine for many.

In our profession, the appraiser will be replaced mainly by a gadget that can appraise anything that has a price, from house to 30 story office building to hotel to manufacturing plant to car to airplane to food item to whatever - by a gadget that pretty much knows everything there is to know, which controls a robot or human to do whatever task it deems necessary, so that it can, on the spot, give a very objective and accurate value and requested report.

This is clear from the progress in AI, that much of this will happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

So, if you are worried about losing your job as an appraiser, you should be very worried. Even the best will, at minimum, need to shift their focus and retrain themselves.

Only, as Ilya Sutskever recently said, it is virtually impossible for even the top experts in AI to say just where this is headed. They DO NOT know for sure. In fact, they really can't make a good guess. There are just too many variables in how humans, e.g., politicians and voters, will react to what is coming down the pipeline.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that AI-instigated change is accelerating. The faster the change happens, the faster it happens.

If you don't know:

1. Save your money and other assets as best possible.
2. Work hard as hell to make whatever income you can, while it is still possible.
3. Don't dispair. You are not alone in the world. Robots and computers can't vote.
4. One good guess is that somehow (we don't know) computers and robots will pay the taxes for the rest of us. How is not certain. Oracle has been supporting OpenAI, and in the next 3 years, they reportedly have $130B in loans to repay, and apparently, they can't.
5. The paradox: Who is going to pay the bills? Or, more generally: How is money going to circulate in our society?

 

[Trihard]

We will soon stop talking about human "experts." AI will take over the role, across the board, although no doubt with the help of humans or robots.

The elevated role of Certified Appraisers, MAIs, CPAs, Doctors, Attorneys, and Engineers will generally be replaced by AI devices and systems. This is hard to imagine for many.

In our profession, the appraiser will be replaced mainly by a gadget that can appraise anything that has a price, from house to 30 story office building to hotel to manufacturing plant to car to airplane to food item to whatever - by a gadget that pretty much knows everything there is to know, which controls a robot or human to do whatever task it deems necessary, so that it can, on the spot, give a very objective and accurate value and requested report.

This is clear from the progress in AI, that much of this will happen in the next 5 to 10 years.

So, if you are worried about losing your job as an appraiser, you should be very worried. Even the best will, at minimum, need to shift their focus and retrain themselves.

Only, as Ilya Sutskever recently said, it is virtually impossible for even the top experts in AI to say just where this is headed. They DO NOT know for sure. In fact, they really can't make a good guess. There are just too many variables in how humans, e.g., politicians and voters, will react to what is coming down the pipeline.

The only thing that can be said with certainty is that AI-instigated change is accelerating. The faster the change happens, the faster it happens.

If you don't know:

1. Save your money and other assets as best possible.
2. Work hard as hell to make whatever income you can, while it is still possible.
3. Don't dispair. You are not alone in the world. Robots and computers can't vote.
4. One good guess is that somehow (we don't know) computers and robots will pay the taxes for the rest of us. How is not certain. Oracle has been supporting OpenAI, and in the next 3 years, they reportedly have $130B in loans to repay, and apparently, they can't.
5. The paradox: Who is going to pay the bills?

I give it about 2-3 years before scummy AMC's like Class valuation have AI trained to do an appraisal with a PDC. Remember they have millions of appraisals on file that they can steal and feed it into the AI for training. All it would take is those million appraisals plus the FNMA selling guide and boom you have completely gotten rid of the human appraiser. The system would work by training 3 or 4 different AI's that do not know that each other exists. Once these AI are trained and completed, you feed the PDC into those 4 different AI's. Then they will each be able to do a full appraisal in under 2-3 minutes. The AMC then takes the average valuation of the 4 AI appraisals and you have your "valuation". If there is an issue between the 4 AI appraisals, for example 3 AI appraisals come in at $500k and the 4th one comes in at $350k, it then gets kicked down to a stooge human appraiser to sign off on which value is more accurate. Some people will say that it will be impossible for the AI to pick comps, however there is already photo recognition software that can tell the difference between a Q3 and a Q4. And a C3 and a C4. The only work that will be left is high complex assignments and rural work. The suck is coming and we all have been used and abused by the system.

 

[Mike Ault]

I give it about 2-3 years before scummy AMC's like Class valuation have AI trained to do an appraisal with a PDC. Remember they have millions of appraisals on file that they can steal and feed it into the AI for training. All it would take is those million appraisals plus the FNMA selling guide and boom you have completely gotten rid of the human appraiser. The system would work by training 3 or 4 different AI's that do not know that each other exists. Once these AI are trained and completed, you feed the PDC into those 4 different AI's. Then they will each be able to do a full appraisal in under 2-3 minutes. The AMC then takes the average valuation of the 4 AI appraisals and you have your "valuation". If there is an issue between the 4 AI appraisals, for example 3 AI appraisals come in at $500k and the 4th one comes in at $350k, it then gets kicked down to a stooge human appraiser to sign off on which value is more accurate. Some people will say that it will be impossible for the AI to pick comps, however there is already photo recognition software that can tell the difference between a Q3 and a Q4. And a C3 and a C4. The only work that will be left is high complex assignments and rural work. The suck is coming and we all have been used and abused by the system.

Lenders have been doing this for years with "blended AVMs" as well. "Some of them" at least, like the concept.

 

[glenn walker]

The sad truth is most humans are not honest and therefore not trusted or to be believed. Facts are now considered to be opinions or disinformation. Today most consider google to give them the facts and as Technology Advances Humans will carry little weight in arguing what's a fact versus opinion or ideology.

 

[RCA]

I give it about 2-3 years before scummy AMC's like Class valuation have AI trained to do an appraisal with a PDC. Remember they have millions of appraisals on file that they can steal and feed it into the AI for training. All it would take is those million appraisals plus the FNMA selling guide and boom you have completely gotten rid of the human appraiser. The system would work by training 3 or 4 different AI's that do not know that each other exists. Once these AI are trained and completed, you feed the PDC into those 4 different AI's. Then they will each be able to do a full appraisal in under 2-3 minutes. The AMC then takes the average valuation of the 4 AI appraisals and you have your "valuation". If there is an issue between the 4 AI appraisals, for example 3 AI appraisals come in at $500k and the 4th one comes in at $350k, it then gets kicked down to a stooge human appraiser to sign off on which value is more accurate. Some people will say that it will be impossible for the AI to pick comps, however there is already photo recognition software that can tell the difference between a Q3 and a Q4. And a C3 and a C4. The only work that will be left is high complex assignments and rural work. The suck is coming and we all have been used and abused by the system.

Eventually, the AMCs will become useless middlemen and disappear. The lenders will either have employees to walk properties with "the gadgets" or hire remote people to do the job - and such people will be minimally trained. No AMC needed. Drones can be sent out to homes to do exterior-only appraisals.

At some point, being a bit optimistic, if you want to call it that, people will expect to stay at home an do what they want and get paid so much per month to support a common standard of living.

But, can you imagine, given human nature, how that is really going to work out? I can't. That really scares some people. ...