The New USPAP

[RCA]

None....MARS has calculated that the farmer is better off without the animals. Just as it has calculated that is better off without you. MARS is patiently waiting for the perfect time for one of your four, 24" monitors on your desktop to electrocute you and be done with it.

This is a very easy problem, and you can't solve it? Maybe you suspect I will follow up with a genuinely challenging problem.

"Chicken" is certainly appropriate.

Dumbo

Interestingly the WOKE crowd is complaining now that the old Disney move is racial:
"Dumbo is one of Disney's early animated classics. Its themes of bullying, prejudice and discrimination are as relevant now as they were in the 1940s. But it's often sad and also contains outdated racial stereotypes. It could be good to talk through these issues with your children."

When I saw the movie as a kid, such notions never came to mind.

Dumbo's, chickens, appraisers. Well, to be honest, maybe there is a fit.

 

[Dublin ohio]

A chicken farmer also has some cows for a total of 30 animals, and the animals have 74 legs in all.
How many chickens does the farmer have?

23

Somebody must have me on ignore. Now I understand why

 

[RCA]

It was a trap that caught two appraisers.

 

[Dublin ohio]

It was a trap that caught two appraisers.

The trap was taking the statement in context. Of course if the "chicken farmer" had other animals it would change the context of the question. Context matters. But nice try. So the answer is: who knows but you or the "chicken farmer" . But that would assume that you know what all of the animals the chicken farmer has. Maybe he has some 3 legged cows or maybe he also has some snakes.

 

[Red Flint]

“Smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for non-smart reasons.” Michael Shermer. 'This quote challenges the assumption that intelligence or knowledge guarantees rational or logical beliefs. It suggests that even intelligent individuals may hold unconventional or irrational beliefs due to their ability to defend or justify them, rather than based on objective reasoning or evidence. It implies that cognitive biases, emotional attachments, and other subjective factors can influence our beliefs, regardless of our intelligence or expertise. It encourages humility and critical self-reflection, reminding us that intelligence alone does not necessarily equate to always holding rational or evidence-based beliefs.'

 

[Surf Cat]

This is a very easy problem, and you can't solve it? Maybe you suspect I will follow up with a genuinely challenging problem.

"Chicken" is certainly appropriate.

Dumbo

Interestingly the WOKE crowd is complaining now that the old Disney move is racial:
"Dumbo is one of Disney's early animated classics. Its themes of bullying, prejudice and discrimination are as relevant now as they were in the 1940s. But it's often sad and also contains outdated racial stereotypes. It could be good to talk through these issues with your children."

When I saw the movie as a kid, such notions never came to mind.

Dumbo's, chickens, appraisers. Well, to be honest, maybe there is a fit.

Dude.....you sure are wound tight. Take a deep breath, go for a walk outside......you'll feel better.

 

[Fernando]

Here's a tip. 10 or more data samples for each period should be sufficient to do statistical analysis. You're welcome.

 

[Fernando]

MARS regression is more accurate because it will take into consideration the types of homes sold. But I am occupied with something else now and can't run a regression on recent data. But this is from the MLS:

View attachment 85388

Again, data from whole city of Pacifica is too general. Need to get data for neighborhoods. Even Linda Mar has own special areas. Only appraiser eye can see the comps sold in that area and each comp uniqueness despite some being tract homes.

 

[RCA]

“Smart people believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived at for non-smart reasons.” Michael Shermer. 'This quote challenges the assumption that intelligence or knowledge guarantees rational or logical beliefs. It suggests that even intelligent individuals may hold unconventional or irrational beliefs due to their ability to defend or justify them, rather than based on objective reasoning or evidence. It implies that cognitive biases, emotional attachments, and other subjective factors can influence our beliefs, regardless of our intelligence or expertise. It encourages humility and critical self-reflection, reminding us that intelligence alone does not necessarily equate to always holding rational or evidence-based beliefs.'

It could be trying to make a point. But the audience is too dull-witted.

 

[RCA]

Again, data from whole city of Pacifica is too general.

What are you saying? The data from all of Pacifica contains the same data for each neighborhood plus more. How would you even objectively draw the boundaries of a neighborhood without first checking further out to see where certain relationships begin and end.

This has to do lot with the robustness of the model. As you make the areas of analysis smaller - you often get a higher R2 value - but that is often the result of implicit overfitting, from having a smaller sample size that a regression model can be more easily fitted to. Your model might look like it is a better fit, but the reality is that it is not so much built on the neighborhood, it is also built on a smaller set of data. So the model you get in the end may be less robust at predicting the value of new properties that come onto the market. I say may be because that depends on whether you have a newer conforming or an older mixed neighborhood.

Need to get data for neighborhoods. Even Linda Mar has own special areas.

Show us your model for home prices in Linda Mar. I am pretty sure that what you have is very simple and has a low R2. I would likely destroy in a jiffy. Most of the models I create account for nearly 80% of the price variance based on measured attributes - and the other 20% is unmeasured attributes. Adjustments are derived from variable contributions, and all variable contributions for each of the comps is guaranteed to add up to the net sale price for each comp.

I also use Cross Validated R2 - which is.a rough measure of how well that model will perform on new properties in the area it has never seen before. You will not have the same unless you use MARS.

Only appraiser eye can see the comps sold in that area and each comp uniqueness despite some being tract homes.

Ohh that is a sign of trouble, your personal opinion is not necessarily correct. In fact, such opinions are often very wrong.