RCA
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jun 27, 2017
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
I've done Bolinas - back around 2005 or so. The sales there, back then were maybe once every couple of years and the property types quite different with little documentation and regression isn't going to get you anywhere. To be exact, it wasn't uncommon for house up for sale to sit on the market for more than two years - because the only buyer would be someone looking for a vacation home. You wre lucky to get an R2 of 0.40. At least back then. I don't know what the situation is now, I have to run regression when I get a chance. But, looking at the MLS, I don't see a problem AT ALL. We have 330 sales going back to 2019. I see patterns. MARS could definitely handle it.
Looking at Stinson Beach, I have 182 sales going back 2015, 430 sales going back 2000. It looks doable, but I am going venture it requires some extra work. I've done The Sea Ranch - and had to creates set of values or all houses related to distance to the beach, line of view and elevation. Doable - but extra work.
Fairfax I have done. I don't see a problem. We have over 500 sales going back to 2020.
In the worse of times, it is a sheer minority of homes the SF Bay Area. I don't deny such areas exist. In the SF Bay Area they are, in total, less than 1% of the market.
When I get a chance I will do a market analysis MARS regression on these areas.
But, the real point here is that YOU should be trying this yourself. You just need R and package earth.