UAD Stats made available to the public yesterday

[CGinMN]

Suburban properties are more likely to be appraised for less than contract price compared to urban and rural.

 

[CGinMN]

There was a clear pattern between median income and % of appraisals below the contract price, but that pattern all but disappears in 2Q2021.

 

[Meandering]

How many were at or above the contract price?

 

[CGinMN]

Attached and semi-detached are less likely to appraise at or above contract than detached
Suburban are less likely to appraise at or above contract than urban and rural
Homes built 1980-2009 are less likely to appraise at or above contract than homes built 2010 to present and built before 1979
Homes in PUDs are less likely to appraise at or above contract than homes outside PUDs
The smaller the GLA, the less likely the home is to appraise at or above the contract

How many were at or above the contract price?

Nationally, at contract ranges from 24-28% (little change during covid), above contract 60-70% (dipped to 53% during covid), below contract 6-10% (spiked up to 20% during covid)

 

[TerryRohrer]

How many were at or above the contract price?

Now, reporting that would smack of efforts to be honest, above board, and transparent, all against the company line. The effort continues to cast the negative appraisal gap as a measure of appraiser corruption.

 

[CGinMN]

Why do suburban and attached properties, arguably the most homogenous groupings providing the best comparisons for both appraisers and market participants, have lower chances of appraising at or above the contract? Thoughts?

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

What shocked me was that my home county (Benton-home of WallyWorld) was almost 1 in 5 transactions for the entire state - including the Capitol county (Pulaski) and Washington County (Fayetteville). No wonder it is still such an overheated market here. Meanwhile across the line in OK, the 5 counties I cover has less than 2.5% of the sales for the state and fully $100,000 less for home price averages in either refi or origination. It is just a much cheaper place to live and identical houses in the two states are worlds apart in price.

 

[Joe Flacco]

Why do suburban and attached properties, arguably the most homogenous groupings providing the best comparisons for both appraisers and market participants, have lower chances of appraising at or above the contract? Thoughts?

Maybe because suburban townhomes these days are not as homogeneous as they used to be but we pretend they are still homogeneous.

 

[TerryRohrer]

Why do suburban and attached properties, arguably the most homogenous groupings providing the best comparisons for both appraisers and market participants, have lower chances of appraising at or above the contract? Thoughts?

I would guess there is more of a tendency for appraisals to constrain the market than in properties where there is less homogeneity and thus more room for discrepancies that can't be proven or disproven. When all the comps generally indicate similar values, often with minimal adjustment, it would be harder to move the market (assuming, of course, that appraisals below contract lead to closings at contract more often than not). Not saying this is how it should be, just a possibility.

 

[Terrel L. Shields]

Why do suburban and attached properties, arguably the most homogeneous groupings providing the best comparisons for both appraisers and market participants, have lower chances of appraising at or above the contract? Thoughts?

Exactly because they do have more data for comparison. The wider the spread in sales, the more likely an outlier - the old Bell Curve problem. A bias in the estimator is sort of built in, so the more data you have the narrower the range of acceptable values - so you get confronted with the reality of the market better with more data and are thus left with much less ability to make a judgment about if it is reasonable or not.