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Unintended consequence of reviews

alebrewer said:
Credit and title are issues of fact. An appraisal is an opinion. I'm sure you've heard the colloquialism that compares opinions to various (rather odorous) body parts.
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An appraisal is not just a personal opinion. It is a professionally developed opinion that has to meet certain standards.

Sadly, the low fees, overly tight turn times, lack of a true firewall, and dropping the college and then the JR college on the residential side, among other developments, have been eroding the reliability on the residential side.
 
J Grant said:
An appraisal is not just a personal opinion. It is a professionally developed opinion that has to meet certain standards.
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All opinions are personal - even the professionally developed ones.
 
alebrewer said:
All opinions are personal - even the professionally developed ones.
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A professionally developed opinion has to meet standards and challenges and should be credibly supported, regardless of whether the opinion is also personal.

I may start an assignment with a personal opinion about X aspect , but it is often reversed by the time I am finished.
 
J Grant said:
An appraisal is not just a personal opinion. It is a professionally developed opinion that has to meet certain standards.

Sadly, the low fees, overly tight turn times, lack of a true firewall, and dropping the college and then the JR college on the residential side, among other developments, have been eroding the reliability on the residential side.
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Has to? Don't you really mean, "is supposed to"??
The reason that "appraiser shopping" exists is simple - it works (in a lot of cases). No?
 
DWiley said:
Has to? Don't you really mean, "is supposed to"??
The reason that "appraiser shopping" exists is simple - it works (in a lot of cases). No?
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I thought appraiser shopping is banned now in lending, except in egregious cases of a truly faulty first appraisal?
Are you saying it is still happening in large numbers?

If it works, it is because the system is a massive fail -- something we have been attesting to on the forum. If individual appraisers do it, they are responsible for their part, but if they show a pattern of inflated values, why are they still being hired? It indicates to me that the AMCs are useless in their role as a firewall, since they are volume market players who select appraisers for assignments.
 
alebrewer said:
Or by allowing appraisers to provide a range of value with confidence intervals. Problem with that is that most appraisers I know don't know what a confidence interval is.
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And those that do, don't really know real estate statistics. So I say. When I go out and run statistics on communities in Northern California, I do not see the normal probability statistics that the appraisers who profess to know statistics are always talking about. I see endless "chunks" of neighborhoods and market areas that have their own isolated characteristics. Parametric statistics are not well-suited for these areas. Non-parametric statistics provide the best models: Non-parametric MARS (R/earth or Minitab), ranking methods, constraint logic programming (CLP), neural networks for photos, .....

But, this is talking to a stone wall. I am not going to say it, no purpose. You what I want to say .... But it serves no purpose.
 
J Grant said:
If it works, it is because the system is a massive fail -- something we have been attesting to on the forum.
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It works not because the system is a fail, but because appraisals are opinions.
 
alebrewer said:
It works not because the system is a fail, but because appraisals are opinions.
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If one appraisal opinion is higher and poorly supported, and another appraisal opinion is lower and well supported, and a lender rejects teh well-supported "lower" opinion of an appraiser shop till they find a higher opinion, then it is due to the system being corrupted.
 
J Grant said:
If one appraisal opinion is higher and poorly supported...
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How could it be poorly supported if, as you assert, it "has to" follow standards? :shrug:
 
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