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It's not that tricky....you just explained it !
The overall range in the prices between the HOA and non-HOA in the area for the same type of homes is less than 10%. I was taught to not over lap and use HOA and non-HOA homes interchangeably a long time ago, but things have changed development wise in some neighborhoods. We are the canary's in the tunnel, the U/W are still a few miles behind.
If HOA houses and non HOA houses , if either shows a pattern of higher or lower prices, then that indicates an adjustment for the HOA...but if the 10% and up to 10% variance is a mix between the two with no clear pattern, it likely comes down to an individual home appeal and upgrades.
In CA Community pools and game courts were shut down for over a year and people still had to pay for them . This turned off a lot of owners in these communities and many say they will never purchase in a project that has HOA Dues. In that price engram I doubt if its even measurable BUT I certainly would not use HOA "V" non-HOA unless I was desperate for a comp. You also need to find out if a project includes Mello-Roos tax Assessments one of those projects may be and that can also be a way developers by pass HOA dues because the -maintenance fees are included in the Borrowers Property tax bills as Special Assessment districts and often at an -additional 1% or more so on a million dollar property those owners tax bills may be $10,000 a year higher than in an-adjacent development. In those situations a HOA due looks awful good when comparing to a home located in a Mello-Roos Tax District.
I did decide not to use the HOA homes in the end. There was no mello-Roos on any of the homes, and typically mello-roos assessments are normally for new or newer homes in my area. It's a convenient way to pass the cost to the homeowner for the "benefits" they receive with regards to parks, tennis courts and such. I think it's a dirty way of passing the cost. In this particular neighborhood, that $125 HOA is actually a great deal and what you get in return is quite good. In addition to the front yard landscaping which as I mentioned, typically costs about $100-150 normally if you hired landscapers, you get the private pool, tennis courts and clubhouse. It would be hard to account for how many homeowners are paying for landscaping and how many are maintaining themselves, but just about all the homes are very well maintained and I saw a lot of landscapers in the area so one can assume a good amount pay for landscaping. It's one of the handful of times I've seen where you get more for the HOA than you pay for.
Rather than the life-of-the-loan, I would tend to rely upon a typical "holding period" based upon the length of time typical buyers in that market normally own before re-selling.
