George Hatch
Elite Member
- Joined
- Jan 15, 2002
- Professional Status
- Certified General Appraiser
- State
- California
Here's what I think about experience and developing adjustments. I think the human brain is a tool to be used, not ignored. Just like our HP-12c or our magic black box analytical tool that someone else built and is charging us $12.95 a month to use to expedite our analysis. Our individual judgment is built in large part upon our accumulated exposure to everything we've seen and done. That is, to the extent we are learning from it. We are all of us walking, talking databases operating our own perpetual internal valuation model. Subject to model specification and model calibration via paying attention to the feedback. We can't compete with the machine when it comes to recalling the individual datapoints but we can see the pattern that occurs when we see the same thing 300 times over during the course of several years.
With that said, if/when you have all the really comparable data you need to tell the tale then obviously it's always going to be better to just let the data speak. Where the use of subjective opinion and judgement comes in is when the data is especially thin and we need to bridge the gap, and we're only doing that because we have no choice.
Your opinions can be argued. It's way harder for a critic to disagree with the data. I think that's the part these users want to emphasize. So WRT experience vs data I don't think that comes down to an either-or choice, but rather both when you have the means to do so. I think substituting your judgement in lieu of looking at the data is an unforced error. And unnecessary much of the time (although not all of the time).
When I review, I'm looking at the facts being asserted in support of the opinion; not so much at the opinion itself. If their facts are straight its hard for them to get too far from reasonable with their conclusions. The sales in the SC either are or are not the most similar overall to the subject. Their quality and condition ratings either are or are not reasonable enough to use. The adjustments either are or are not applied consistently. If an appraiser has their facts wrong enough to dork the value then they have nowhere to argue when you point those facts out.
That's how a reviewer avoids the catfight, by sticking to the data and the consistency; not by arguing individual line item adjustments.
With that said, if/when you have all the really comparable data you need to tell the tale then obviously it's always going to be better to just let the data speak. Where the use of subjective opinion and judgement comes in is when the data is especially thin and we need to bridge the gap, and we're only doing that because we have no choice.
Your opinions can be argued. It's way harder for a critic to disagree with the data. I think that's the part these users want to emphasize. So WRT experience vs data I don't think that comes down to an either-or choice, but rather both when you have the means to do so. I think substituting your judgement in lieu of looking at the data is an unforced error. And unnecessary much of the time (although not all of the time).
When I review, I'm looking at the facts being asserted in support of the opinion; not so much at the opinion itself. If their facts are straight its hard for them to get too far from reasonable with their conclusions. The sales in the SC either are or are not the most similar overall to the subject. Their quality and condition ratings either are or are not reasonable enough to use. The adjustments either are or are not applied consistently. If an appraiser has their facts wrong enough to dork the value then they have nowhere to argue when you point those facts out.
That's how a reviewer avoids the catfight, by sticking to the data and the consistency; not by arguing individual line item adjustments.
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