Waivers are not the whole problem for appraisal demand.

[CGinMN]

I mean - looking at it from a modular perspective, what 'modules' are imperative to producing credible results? The inspection module or the analysis module? The folks who control the narrative decided that the analysis module is more critical, thus the development of the hybrid model. To your point, the hybrid model - to some extent - is a reflection of the 'short form' mentality. Reallocate those time consuming modules and focus on the part that really makes an appraisal an appraisal - the analysis.

I guess I don't see it that way, I am talking about shortening the reporting side. They could do a short-form hybrid if they wanted. I think the new process will be more time-consuming, both inspection and write-up. I could be wrong.

 

[Cob]

I have seen the writing on the wall the last couple of years and have planned accordingly, the days of me being a full time appraiser and depending on appraisal income to make an actual living are done and over with, I am doing other things related to real estate and appraising, once the UAD changes along with new forms, I will pretty much be retired from writing up appraisal reports.

 

[Overimprovement]

Here, the inventory is increasing, but no one local can afford them. After a century of largely natural growth, the pandemic era and "Yellowstone" brought an outsized influx of well heeled outsiders with no knowledge of, or ties to, local economic conditions (and, oddly, a large contingent without a dime or a clue or a plan or an abode). Sales are few and increasingly variable even in the cookie cutter new construction.

From what I have read about the WY market in general (outside of Jackson), many come in unprepared for the harsh reality of mountain winters and lack of the level of services and entertainment they are used to (what, closest Starbucks is how many hours away?) and end up turning tail back out of the state. Do you see much of that in MT? I find it funny that people don't even do basic research. I've been to WY a few times (was just there in August), and I can see the appeal driving through it but that is in August. I also noted the snow fencing along the interstates, and the gates at every ramp to the freeway in case that section of road is closed. "Gee hunny, why would they ever close the interstate?"

 

[Overimprovement]

Wouldn't more appraisers per household result in fewer appraisals per licensee, and all other factors being equal that should drive costs down? Instead, the states with the fewest appraisals per appraiser generally have higher fees.

I'm going to do some more analysis and I will post it someday.

My guess is it has to do with the competition. In states with lots of larger cities and higher population, there are more panel appraisers taking a lot of the work, so what is left for us indy's is fought over, pushing price down. I doubt MT has a whole lot panel appraisers, so when an order DOES come up, and given the size of the state, there are only a few potential appraisers available to fill the order. Hence higher prices.

 

[Overimprovement]

I have seen the writing on the wall the last couple of years and have planned accordingly, the days of me being a full time appraiser and depending on appraisal income to make an actual living are done and over with, I am doing other things related to real estate and appraising, once the UAD changes along with new forms, I will pretty much be retired from writing up appraisal reports.

I made that decision beginning of last year. Now I was fortunate that appraisals had already been a 2nd career and I had my original career to fall back on. I understand not everyone has that, and I certainly feel for them, but I don't see things getting any better for appraisers. Far too many headwinds. I am keeping my license current and doing 1-2 month to keep my toe in the water, but I don't see it ever coming back to 'normal' whatever that is. Once the new forms take hold, I will exit completely. No need taking on that learning curve and expense for some mad money each year.

 

[TerryRohrer]

From what I have read about the WY market in general (outside of Jackson), many come in unprepared for the harsh reality of mountain winters and lack of the level of services and entertainment they are used to (what, closest Starbucks is how many hours away?) and end up turning tail back out of the state. Do you see much of that in MT? I find it funny that people don't even do basic research. I've been to WY a few times (was just there in August), and I can see the appeal driving through it but that is in August. I also noted the snow fencing along the interstates, and the gates at every ramp to the freeway in case that section of road is closed. "Gee hunny, why would they ever close the interstate?"

I am expecting that over the next 5 years. We haven't been having winter for the past few years, so it will be a process. I was appraising a house in a newer, very rural subdivision about 20 years ago, and most of the homes were being built by outsiders. I mentioned to an old timer that a good winter might clear some of them out. His response was, "We call that ethnic cleansing." Brooke Shields and Whoopi Goldberg and a bunch of others had places about 80 miles from me in the 1990s and when they sold, their reason was, nothing to do!

I have covered a very large area over the past 30 years and there are areas that have been subdivided, some since the 1970s, that simply never generated enough demand to fully develop. Most became very cheap and vacant sites still would not move. Then, with the work from home movement and cheap interest, many of those sites were snapped up as if they were in California, at prices no one around here can fathom. We were seeing those occupied by an RV with a pile of propane tanks piled around. Sadly, those folks are going to lose their financial tails when they decide to retreat. They won't leave in any more orderly fashion than they came, but the cost of holding an improved property will be a much greater burden than it was for that vacant site.

 

[TerryRohrer]

I can see the appeal driving through it but that is in August. I also noted the snow fencing along the interstates

We are just two years removed from a huge die off of elk and antelope. If they can't survive, you know its tough. There is talk of another round of the same this winter after big fires.

"Outfitters say southcentral Wyoming antelope, deer and elk herds are dying off in huge numbers and that predictions that half of the antelope in parts of the state could die this winter probably fall short. It’s more likely to be closer to 80%"

Dying By The Thousands: Miles Of Death As Wyoming Antelope, Deer And Elk Die From Winter Starvation

Outfitters say southcentral Wyoming antelope, deer and elk herds are dying off in huge numbers and that predictions that half of the antelope in parts of…

cowboystatedaily.com

 

[alebrewer]

I guess I don't see it that way, I am talking about shortening the reporting side. They could do a short-form hybrid if they wanted. I think the new process will be more time-consuming, both inspection and write-up. I could be wrong.

From what I've seen, there are some modest time gains from the hybrid process. Certainly not game changing...

 

[Dublin ohio]

Wouldn't more appraisers per household result in fewer appraisals per licensee, and all other factors being equal that should drive costs down? Instead, the states with the fewest appraisals per appraiser generally have higher fees.

I'm going to do some more analysis and I will post it someday.

I charge more for rural. There is a reason for that. Look at the geography of the states in green. Many of those state have large rural areas that are much lower in density. Much larger areas to cover. Long travel times, limited sales, widely varied physical characteristics. No such thing as a cookie cutter.

 

[CGinMN]

Yes, I think it is rural/remote states having higher fees, but still not sure why there would be fewer GSE appraisals per appraiser in those states. Maybe fewer transactions or more competition from local lenders? What about UT?